JotCast | 2016 Opening Day 2.0 Live Blog

2016 Opening Day 2.0 Live Blog

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dude

5:56

AGREED!!! Sopranos is so overrated. Good ending though

Craig Edwards

5:56

it was a good show, and it was on for a long time, which is an underrated aspect of shows like that, but it isn't in the same class as Wire or breaking bad

dude

5:57

Is xFIP being phased out among the sabermetric community? Is FIP still valid

Craig Edwards

5:57

I think xFIP is still used about as much as it has been. FIP is still very valid. Ks and BBs and HR are still the most important aspect to know.

dude

5:58

Btw, Joey Votto has struck out two times against Jeremy Hellickson, and just swung at ball 4 in a 3-0 count. Apocalypse?

Craig Edwards

5:58

it's possible

Poor Man's Rick Reed

5:58

Agreed. He just squared on the first pitch but didn't attempt on CB strike one, but did alert the defense (as if they weren't thinking about it already). Second pitch bunts right to the hard charging 3B and it isn't even close at first.

Sam C

5:59

Craig, you think Estrada will be below average? I thought the BIP retrospective looked promising.

Craig Edwards

6:01

If you split the difference between his FIP and ERA last year, you end up around average. His LOB% was top ten last year and he has had homer problems in the past.

Terrible Ted

6:01

I still think Sopranos had the best character development.

Craig Edwards

6:02

Not sure I agree, but there was a lot of time spent on it certainly.

The MWP

6:02

I noticed you (and most others) predicted Trout as AL MVP but didn't predict the Angels to make the playoffs. Are you predicting who you think will be the "true" MVP or do you think voters might eschew the fad to vote for guys on playoff teams?

Craig Edwards

6:03

Maybe it is just playing percentages, but you can go Trout and the odds he is better by far which is likely, or pick from a group of players who might end up almost as good and on a playoff team.

Picking those other players ends up with more chance than just going with the expected best player.

Erik

6:03

Hellickson hat trick over Votto. Hellickson is clearly an ace and Votto is clearly over the hill.

Craig Edwards

6:04

What if Votto is just trolling us?

The Dude of NY

6:04

Conspiracy theory: Votto is going to be intentionally bad this season to ensure that the Reds get the first overall pick in the 2017 draft.

John

6:04

Brief explanation someone would think FIP is being phased out? Popular article I missed?

dude

6:04

What do you say when you cite wOBA, wRC+, FIP, even WAR, etc. and people immediately dismiss it and call you a nerd/claim you're ruining baseball? I feel like the explanation would be too long-winded

Craig Edwards

6:06

It honestly does not come up all that much in normal conversation. It is pretty obvious how passionate I am about baseball which makes it hard to think that being really passionate about the sport is bad for it.

YEET

6:07

Thoughts on Jeremy Hellickson ?

Craig Edwards

6:07

I think we are witnessing his best game of the year.

Sam

6:08

Sopranos created the genre that allowed The Wire and BB to be what they were. Gotta give credit where it's due.

Craig Edwards

6:09

Paving the way is not the same as quality though. The success of Sopranos did help shows like the Wire exist, but that doesn't mean that the Wire was not an improvement on Sopranos as a show.

The FDP

6:10

Not that anyone asked me, but I assume xFIP/FIP will get slowly phased out as primary pitching metrics data continues to expand. Becoming a little clearer how some pitchers defy it in both directions.

Craig Edwards

6:12

I'm not sure we are that close though. It's not clear how much control a pitcher has over exit velocity for example and FIP has the benefit of simplicity, relatively.

The FDP

6:13

(Dallas Keuchel for example)

Craig Edwards

6:15

Keuchel is very good for a lot reasons, but keep in mind, if Keuchel has a true talent .290 BABIP instead of .270, that only means 12 more hits over the course of a season. If he improved his k rate by 1.5% that is 13 more outs.

Sam C

6:15

I think Twitter and social media has overblown the resistance against advanced stats... The lowest common denominator is always overblown to look like the norm.

Craig Edwards

6:16

I think there are a few people with prominent roles in disseminating the game also play a role-but the blow up is usually kept to twitter/comments, etc. and not general discourse.

dude

6:16

John- Not necessarily FIP, more xFIP. I've heard HR/FB% is a learnable and repeatable trait. Not positive if that's exactly right. I think Jeff might have said it, but don't quote me

Craig Edwards

6:18

Even if it learnable/repeatable, what kind of sample size do you need? What do you want to look at after 3 starts or six starts. ERA or even FIP can get blown out of proportion in small samples where xFIP can help you out.

Nate

6:18

Is it bad that I, a Giants fan, root for the Dodgers to win solely because my fantasy opponent has Tyson Ross?

Craig Edwards

6:19

No. because your rooting has no interest in the outcome of the game. but i think you should be rooting for a dodgers loss in a high-scoring game where ross doesn't get the win. Dream Big.

Mitchell Svetov

6:20

You're quite lucky. I can't mention Sabermetrics around my friends without either being called a nerd, or them just looking me in the eye and giving me a dumbfounded look.

Craig Edwards

6:21

If somebody doesn't want to learn, you can't make them, but if you want to introduce the topics, it is best to do it a way people are receptive to and will understand. Using FIP, wOBA, wRC+ isn't helpful if people think it is garbage stat. The same is true for some defensive metrics even among people who like and use advanced stats.

John

6:21

So as a Joey Votto owner in an OBP league I should clearly panic and drop him for Ryan Howard, yes?

Craig Edwards

6:21

If you are in a league with me and I have first waiver priority, yes

trAey

6:23

What happened to Revere?

Craig Edwards

6:23

possible oblique injury