JotCast | 2019 Opening Day Very Long Chat

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DAVEY

3:06

Why are the Mets carrying to 1B on their roster, Alonso and Dom Smith? Do they realize the NL has no DH?

Craig Edwards

3:07

Well they have three second baseman so this might be an improvement.

Wire Fan

3:07

The CWS-KC game is the mlb.com free game of the day. Right price or still too expensive?

Justin

3:07

I will say this a lot, but I went to a rival private school of Ottavino's, and in 8th grade, while I sat on the bench, that team had this really really good player who dominated everything named Adam (he's one year older than I am, same grade). And it took me until this offseason to realize it was the same kid.

Craig Edwards

3:07

Eloy debut worth the price of admission, let alone free.

Matt

3:07

In an interesting turn of events, it seems likely that Scherzer might get deGrom'd against deGrom.

Craig Edwards

3:07

It's not over yet.

Matt

3:08

I hedged, Craig

HappyFunBall

3:09

I feel like Scherzer would pitch 1,458 outs in a season if his manager let him. Davey needs to learn to tell Max "no".

Craig Edwards

3:10

and he had a really good excuse being behind with scherzer up.

Billy Beane

3:10

Hi Dan, I just wanted to let you know that your ZiPS division Matrix was a really cool, really transparent way of conveying complex information about the distribution of outcomes for the ZiPS projections.

Dan Szymborski

3:10

THANKS LOVE YOUR BOOK MONEYBALL!

3:11

What is more surprising taking deGrom out after 93 pitches or letting Scherzer pitch 110+ and not PH for him?

Dan Szymborski

3:11

More seriously, I hope I explained it in a way that it gets rid of the questions about what mean projections are!

Craig Edwards

3:11

Scherzer, but barely.

BKJ

3:12

Assuming player-owner revenue split stayed the same, would you support the MLB minimum plus year end WAR based compensation for all players? Would this be more or less fair than what we (they) do now?

Dan Szymborski

3:12

Really hard to implement, impossible to get approved, I think.

Thanks for the Chat!

3:12

Two more SOs in the Mets-Nats game and it will be 50% of the outs...

Derek

3:12

Can we please get Jose Martinez in the AL? That guy can hit. That guy also can't play defense.

Dan Szymborski

3:13

You'd essentially be turning MLB salaries over to FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference, which isn't happening. Or you're negotiating a WAR formula like those Elias FA compensations, which will also be horrible.

And you'd need to negotiate a new revenue-sharing plan, because something like that *would* end up destroying small-market teams under the current system.

Craig Edwards

3:13

I think if he were a 130 wRC+ hitter, he would be passable enough on defense to be a decent starter, though maybe the DH is coming to the NL soon.

Dan Szymborski

3:14

He's better than Kemp

Matt

3:14

Why don't you do nice projections, Dan?

RickyB

3:14

Really don't understand what the Nats were doing w/ Scherzer there. At this stage of the game how does giving up a PA to get what amounted to 2 more outs from Scherzer make any sense?

Dan Szymborski

3:14

I'm more an antagonist stathead.

Andrew

3:14

The 2019 Orioles projections were pretty mean.

Craig Edwards

3:14

Narrator: it did not, in fact, make sense.

Anonymous

3:14

Your face is better than Kemp

Dan Szymborski

3:15

No way, Kemp's way handsomer than I.

Billy Beane

3:15

Dan, article idea blatantly stolen from another commenter: Are there any AAA teams that project similarly to the 2019 Orioles? It feels like the Blue Jays AAA team might have better position players because Vladito probably has as high a WAR projection as 1/2 the Orioles position players put together.

Dan Szymborski

3:15

I suspect no. Even the O's project to 10-12 WAR

the second-tier AAA talent drops off a LOT

Dave

3:15

For the love of all that is holy, everyone stop suggesting the abomination of the DH is coming to the NL. You have your bastardized version of baseball and when you meet your maker you'll be judged accordingly. Please leave the rest of the good folk alone to enjoy the purity of baseball as it should be.

Dan Szymborski

3:16

I feel that once daily interleague play happened, the eventual DH in the NL became inevitable.

Bird and Tulo

3:16

This might not last very long.

Matt

3:16

Am I the only one who is completely agnostic to the DH?

Dan Szymborski

3:17

No, I really don't mind either way.

HappyFunBall

3:17

I know Davey Martinez is a rookie manager, and this is the first game of the season. He'll learn soon enough, right? What's that you say? Oh boy ...

Dan Szymborski

3:17

You get out of practice and forget about how pinch-hitters work, kinda like how you write the previous year on stuff until like January 20th

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