JotCast | 2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

Tim Dierkes

8:43

Welcome to the chat! If you haven't gotten a chance to check out this offseason's top 50 free agent list, you can find it here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with...

8:44

Putting predictions out there can be stressful at times, but it's also really fun. I'm grateful for you checking that out and being here in this chat today.

A brief preamble before we begin...

8:46

Tim's principles of MLB free agency

1. Acknowledge the uncertainty. There are surprising contracts every year, because bidding is irrational. There is not much I am completely certain about and I tend to speak in ranges and use the word "plausible" a lot.

2. Examine recent precedents, but don't be tethered to them. Our MLB contract tracker is an amazing tool for identifying comparable players and contracts, but bidding doesn't stop on a player because of a different player's contract last winter. Generally contracts increase every year due to inflation.

3. Focus on the total, not the years. This is a new one, a theory for this winter based on what we saw last winter. Last winter, most star players seemed to be aiming for a total number and were pretty open to accepting lower AAVs and adding free/discounted late-30s seasons to contracts. Teams benefit from this because the payments are spread out longer and the lower AAVs reduce competitive balance tax.

Guest

8:48

What pitchers do you predict to St. Louis?

Tim Dierkes

8:49

I put Nola, Stephenson, and Nick Martinez. Anthony did Nola, Lugo, and Neris. Darragh put Nola, Yuki Matsui, and Montas.

I think that conveys a Nola confidence that we don't actually have. Definitely see them on Gray, Montgomery, just about everyone.

Myles

8:49

Kinda surprised Nola was unanimously predicted to the Cards, every report from a legitimate reporter has indicated that the Phillies are trying their hardest to bring him back.

Tim Dierkes

8:51

I think if you wanted to win our free agent contest, you could put the player's old team in for most, tweak a few, and be in pretty good shape. GMs generally say they will attempt to retain good players, and those players generally say they want to stay. Reading the tea leaves further can be tough but from what I recall of Dombrowski's comments, I was comfortable suggesting he leaves.

Tom

8:51

Ohtani to the Cubs isn’t that far fetched now? CC in house, money to use, young players and friends with Suzuki who is breaking out. Am I wrong?

Tim Dierkes

8:51

I don't believe the Counsell hire moves the needle much for the Cubs to sign Ohtani. I generally find that match to be possible, but not likely. I feel there are geographic areas he'd rather be and teams that will bid higher.

Cubs

8:52

I don’t see too many predictions about Rhys Hoskins going to the Cubs, seems like a perfect fit to me.

Tim Dierkes

8:52

I mentioned Hoskins in my Cubs offseason outlook: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-chicago-cubs-...

I think it's a solid match, the Cubs have very little at the infield corners.

Team Uncertainty!!!

8:52

Outside of players coming from foreign leagues, which players in the top 50 have the most uncertainty in their contract range or the most disagreement in MLBTR staff predictions?

Tim Dierkes

8:54

Please check out our mega-podcast featuring Darragh, Steve, Anthony, and I, coming out pretty soon. I posed this very question to everyone! I think Teoscar Hernandez is one we have less confidence on.

Derek Simpson

8:54

I’ve been predictions from Bellinger up to 7 years at around 22 AAV to even 12 years at 22 AAV. How much does Boras get for Bellinger and is there a chance there’s an opt out after a few years to potentially make even more?

Tim Dierkes

8:55

If you've seen ours, you've seen a $264MM projection!

Opt outs are always possible with star players. He's really young so if he's disappointed with the offers I can see him pushing for one.

Flaherty

8:55

I just can't believe someone would pay 3/40 for him. I know someone will, but that's just insane.

Tim Dierkes

8:56

I don't like that contract, but given his age and the level of success he had in the past, it's our best guess. He's a guy who could prefer one year, we don't really know.

Anthopolous Whisperer

8:56

Tyler Mahle to the Braves seems very Braves-y doesn't it? Discounted price due to TJ surgery; helps shore up the rotation in 2025, which will be critical if both Morton and Fried are gone. Missing something?

Tim Dierkes

8:57

Certainly, that match works. I think Mahle fits pretty well with most teams though.

Ghost of Joey Votto

8:57

I have said I'll be shocked if the Reds get anyone in the top 50. I expect another Wil Myers type signing. Do you predict them getting a legit major league player, especially pitching?

Tim Dierkes

8:57

I think they have enough powder dry and cheap position players in the fold that they'll get one or more top 50 pitchers.

Myles

8:57

How likely do you think it is that the Phils bring back Rhys?

Tim Dierkes

8:58

I see the lack of a qualifying offer as an indication they won't bring him back. It may be that they didn't want to commit 20 mil in November and will keep the door open though. But if they want Harper playing 40-50 games at 1B or something, you probably should let Hoskins leave.

Ramos

8:59

Any chance you guys do a top 25 players to get traded and go where contest and post. I see there being alot more trades this off-season

Tim Dierkes

8:59

Yes I do think that's a good idea!

FenwayFanatcis

8:59

Nola to the Red Sox?

Tim Dierkes

8:59

I could see that. Pretty natural to assume they will be in on all top starting pitchers, whether free agency or trade.

Phl

8:59

You guys predicted 6 years/$150 for Nola to the Cards. I think Dombrowski/Middleton match that in a heartbeat. Why wouldn’t they?

Tim Dierkes

9:00

It feels like a fairly risky investment to me. I also don't know what he's been seeking.

Charles

9:01

I could definitely see Bellinger signing 10 years with Angels. To me, it’s not signing Bellinger. It’s moving Trout to LF, with top CF to replace him. And Trout has seven years left.

Tim Dierkes

9:01

The Angels are a pretty big unknown right now. If Ohtani leaves, which most think will happen, does Arte compensate with other big free agents?

Jetro

9:01

Tim, you have the Phillies basically sitting out free agency. How do you think they fill their number 2 spot in the rotation? Closer? Thanks for doing the chat!!

Tim Dierkes

9:02

I don't think that's true. I picked them for Snell, and other writers did Matt Chapman and Marcus Stroman.

Adam

9:02

Think Harper gets the contract extension he is talking about and how would it look, would his current contract be restructured?

Tim Dierkes

9:03

I was only half-listening to the Boras podcast that I think you're referring to, and I got no actual indication Harper is pushing for an extension.

Dale

9:03

Yamamoto, Bellinger, Candelario to the Cubs, plus 2 relievers?

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