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August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat
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august fagerstrom
11:32
hello!
being that I missed last week's chat, what with me being out of the country and all, we'll go a little longer this week.
for now, though, I'm going to head down to the deli and procure myself a sandwich. get those questions in and I'll be back around noon to commence chatting
11:33
also, we can totally talk about Star Wars if you guys want
today's chat soundtrack: Vince Guaraldi Trio - A Charlie Brown Christmas
12:02
I just saw a man carrying a motorcycle up a flight of steps on my way back from the deli, so I suppose we can begin no
Sumar Juh the Jedi
12:03
Is there a good reason to sign Mike Leake over Scott Kazmir? I know Kazmir's older, but they seem more or less like they'll both be average-ish and Kazmir is almost certainly gonna take less in years and dollars.
august fagerstrom
12:03
risk aversion?
12:04
the only "durable" starter they had isn't durable anymore
maybe they were hesitant to add Kazmir into a rotation full of health question marks. Leake's been about as steady as they come
Slew
12:04
Napoli and Davis? Really??
august fagerstrom
12:04
did you think they were gonna sign Davis and Cespedes?
c
12:05
can we please not talk about star wars, i'd like to participate in baseball chat, but i haven't seen the damn movie yet
august fagerstrom
12:05
yeah I suppose this is maybe for the best
stupid spoilers :(
Andrew
12:05
It's often said TJS drops a price tag for a pitcher because getting injured is the strongest predictor of getting injured again. I don't understand. Most TJ surgeries have a high rate of success and in recent years getting a second is infrequent. I can recall Kris Medlen, but Strasburg, Harvey, Fernandez, Nova, deGrom and many others haven't had a recurring problem. Medlen and Bundy have, sure, but they seem to be the minority. What am I missing?
august fagerstrom
12:05
the success rate of second Tommy John is miniscule
12:06
it's essentially a death sentence
Medlen appears to perhaps be an exception, with (I believe) Wainwright as the other
but, still, it's a huge risk. guys can live through one. they rarely live through another. teams are hesitant to give years and dollars to a guy with an impending death sentence
Chris H
12:07
What would a fair Dodgers/Tribe deal be in your opinion for each of Carrasco and Salazar?
august fagerstrom
12:07
Puig+ for Carrasco
cistulli fan
12:07
Is Carson great or the greatest?
august fagerstrom
12:07
I'm a fan
Jon Becker
12:08
Better move for Indians: go bold with something like Carrasco for Soler + more, or something smaller like Bauer for Ozuna?
august fagerstrom
12:08
probably Bauer for Ozuna, though I'm not sure that's necessary
Nate
12:09
Congratulations, August... You played yo'self
august fagerstrom
12:09
just like they wanted me to
Mike
12:09
Thoughts on the Leake signing?
august fagerstrom
12:10
around what we figured he'd get. lotta people will think he's overpaid. teams pay for consistency, and Leake's been as consistent as they come, and he's still pretty young
not much upside, but the Cards didn't need to make a huge splash. they needed to not be counting on Jaime Garcia and Marco Gonzalez to throw 300+ innings
Guest
12:11
Per the HT article on injuries yesterday, the White Sox have had 428 fewer DL days per year than the league average over the past 14 years. That's about 3 player years per year. Assuming the average guy who goes on the DL is a 1.5 WAR player (maybe) and the average guy who replaces him is replacement level (seems logical), Herm Schneider is worth something like 4.5 wins a year. Assuming the data for the past 14 years is consistent with his body of work over his 35 year career, Herm Schneider is basically Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds.
august fagerstrom
12:11
White Sox injury prevention is one of the most amazing things in baseball that I wish we knew more about
Aunt Jessie
12:12
What kind of sandwich did you get at the deli? It might inform my lunch. BLT? Turkey and swiss? Ham and cheddar? I have all of these options available to me.
august fagerstrom
12:12
my favorite -- the Philadelphian. Proscuitto, Corned Beef, Muenster, Slaw, 1000 Island, and Gulden's Mustard on Thick Cut Sour Dough
MSW
12:13
Ugh, Alejandro de Aza. Is he really necessary with the Mets? He can't be more than a 5th OF at this point, can't play center field anymore, and they want him to be the long side of a platoon with Lagares? Do they not care that they have the most valuable asset in all of baseball with that cheap rotation?
august fagerstrom
12:13
yeah, seems kind of a weird fit. last couple things the Mets have done have been weird
12:14
I sure wouldn't want him in center field on my contending team
Nuke Laloosh's left eyelid
12:14
what kind of hitter do you think maikel franco is? am i crazy to think mini beltre?
august fagerstrom
12:14
I mean, yeah, you're probably crazy to think any player with half a year of experience is a mini version of any HoFer
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