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August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 4/26/16
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mtsw
1:09
Is there a source for tracking changes made to stadium's batters' eyes over the years?
august fagerstrom
1:09
no but this is an interesting idea
Definitely something that could have a very real effect on how the parks play that goes largely unnoticed and unreported
Hank
1:09
I really enjoy watching Lindor play. Its great to see players who are out there and can laugh at their own plays.
august fagerstrom
1:09
He is the most fun
John Esq.
1:09
Who's the best prospect to be called up in June?
august fagerstrom
1:10
Lucas Giolito
CecilFielder
1:10
Re: instagraphs stabilization posts- Just hit us with some bar graphs of % stable! Im reaching here but I think it could be a fun excersize
august fagerstrom
Erik
1:11
Is it fair to say that BABIP is best used as a measure of luck, while BACON (if that's really the name) is a better indicator of skill? I'm thinking specifically of Harper's currently poor BABIP, which only looks bad because so many of his hard hits don't end up as balls in play.
august fagerstrom
1:11
I definitely do not think it's fair to say BABIP is best used as a measure of luck
That's not to say BACON doesn't have its uses, but BABIP being a "luck stat" is an old trope that should be thrown out by now
1:14
Just a heads-up: please don't spam the queue with the same question over and over again. I've got a lot to sift through, and it becomes increasingly difficult when people spam the same question a bunch of times. I'm often a half hour or so *behind* the queue, so it's very possible I just haven't gotten to your question yet. Either that, or it's a fantasy question that I'm probably not going to answer anyway, in which event spamming the queue will make me no more likely to do so
kevinthecomic
1:15
I want to expand on the conversation regarding stabilization rates being a sliding scale -- most, if not all, of the projections we get are point estimates -- if showing a point estimate for stabilization is inappropriate, why are point estimates appropriate for projections? -- any chance we could see a distribution? -- the paranoid side of my personality, which is the dominant side unfortunately, is concluding that the sabremetric community doesn't show distributions because then it would be abundantly clear how much it actually CAN'T predict the future and would then subject itself to nay-saying from the old school/troglodyte side of baseball
august fagerstrom
1:15
Yeah, this is a very good point. I think a much better job could be done, and this is true for all projection systems and all websites which host them, of displaying error bars along with projections
1:16
I really like how BaseballProspectus gives you the option to look at the 10 percentile PECOTA projection, 90th percentile, etc.
I think on the standings page in particular, it could be helpful to include some sort of error bar disclaimer. Could help avoid all of the awful "FanGraphs PREDICTS my team to win XX games this year. Outrageous!!1!1!"
1:17
Problem is, the people who make those ill-advised statements probably don't understand/wouldn't care to understand the concept of errors bars in the first place, so who knows how much it would actually help
I do agree with your general stance, though.
jon
1:17
many of the young Cub hitters are showing fairly significant drop in K's (Bryant, Russell and Soler). How much do you think these gains will hold?
august fagerstrom
1:18
Tough to say, but it definitely seems like an organizational philosophy to put more balls in play, so it's certainly an early-season trend worth watching
Richard
1:19
Concerning your "Nobody will ever again get the Barry Bonds treatment" response, is that a: because nobody will be that good, or b: because intentionally walking him that often was a mistake?
august fagerstrom
1:19
a: yes b: yes
robbob
1:19
Rasmus isn't actually going to walk that much RoS is he?
august fagerstrom
1:20
He sees the lowest rate of in-zone fastballs of anyone in baseball, and if I recall correctly, this isn't some new, fluky sample size thing. Pitchers are really afraid to give him a fastball over the plate. If he's learned to lay off some of the bad breaking stuff he chased in the past, then a boost could be in order
Obviously not going to sustain a 20% walk rate, but
Argo
1:20
Last year I patted myself on the back for trading Eovaldi and Rasmus for Pineda? Talk me down from the ledge
august fagerstrom
1:21
it doesn't actually matter
that should be enough
bad trade though
CecilFielder
1:22
Can you explain LOB%? like why is it important in one sentence
august fagerstrom
1:23
because it's subject to a ton of noise, and can be one of the driving factors in a pitcher's ERA not matching his peripherals. this is a flawed example of course, but pitcher A gives up one single per inning for nine innings and has an ERA of 0.00. pitcher B goes hitless for eight innings and then gives up nine consecutive singles in the ninth and has an ERA of 8 or whatever. they both essentially pitched the same, but pitcher A was more fortunate in how his runners were distributed
that's probably got more to do with luck than skill
that wasn't one sentence, but hopefully you get the gist
1:24
always regress LOB% heavily toward the league mean or, in a large enough sample, that individual player's career norm
Dizzy Trout
1:24
Now that Brantley's back, how does the playing time shake out with Rajai Chisenhall J. Ram etc
august fagerstrom
1:25
Ramirez probably takes the biggest hit, because he's looked terrifying in the outfield and there isn't an everyday spot for him in the infield, though I do suspect he cuts into Uribe's playing time vs. RHP at 3B. Naquin/Davis platoon in CF, Chisenhall/Byrd platoon in RF
Johnny5Alive
1:25
yes, there is an all you can drink mets outing on June 18th. hosted by barstool sports. since you will be in the city, and love baseball, it should be a thing you attend.
august fagerstrom
1:25
from what I know about Barstool Sports that doesn't seem like something I wish to attend
The Man with the Plan
1:25
TOOCCAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
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