JotCast | August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 5/3/16

August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 5/3/16

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august fagerstrom

12:21

He hits the ball so god damn hard

Night Man

12:21

Has michael conforto's play so far this season change how you view him going forward? What kind of player is michael for 2016 and beyond? Thanks August

august fagerstrom

12:23

Yeah, definitely. He's been one of the more encouraging stories this season. Seems like a guy who might just be better than he was originally given credit for

Could be a 130 wRC+ guy moving forward.

Jackbob

12:24

Is August Fagerstrom your real name? Sounds like a great literary protagonist

august fagerstrom

12:24

It is very much my real name

Jake

12:24

Quintana will be a top 3 pitcher in the American League by the end of the year. How unrealistic is that statement?

august fagerstrom

12:25

A bit but he's really really good and I plan on writing about him very soon, I think

Jason

12:25

Carlos Correa's 2016 has been an interesting one so far. He's increased his BB% by 6.5 points, and his wRC+ is 131 (compared to 133 in 2015). His K% is also up by more than 4%, his ISO is down almost 80 points, he hasn't hit a HR since the 2nd game of the season, and he's swinging at fewer pitches this year, even though he's seeing more strikes. Anything to be concerned about here, or is this just a combination of a young hitter learning to make adjustments and small sample size?

august fagerstrom

12:25

The most concerning thing is the defense, I think

Conrad

12:26

With no real place for Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar on the current Rangers roster given their talent levels, would a trade at the deadline at the latest make sense? Healthy Tyson Ross for one or both of Profar and Gallo?

august fagerstrom

12:26

I do not think I'd want my team trading for Tyson Ross right now

12:27

But, yeah, the Rangers might be the most obvious fit for a team with an excess of bats and a need for pitching. I'd be shocked if they don't make a significant trade for an arm at some point this year

The Dude of NY

12:27

Anthony Rizzzo has an ISO of .345 but a BABIP of .188. How do you explain those numbers? HOW?

august fagerstrom

12:28

He hits a lot of fly balls, and home runs aren't included in BABIP, and that's damn near half his hits

Bill

12:28

Eickhoff or Nola?

august fagerstrom

12:28

Nola for floor, Eickhoff for ceiling? Or maybe just Nola for both.

Trainman

12:28

Byung Ho Park: getting more impressed everyday with him. Still too small of a sample size or do we say this guy is the real deal?

august fagerstrom

12:28

Well the power is very real

That was never in question

12:29

It was the contact that was the question. And the contact is still extremely low, about as low as a successful hitter's contact rate can possibly be, but you can make a 69% contact rate work with his kind of power

Would still like to see that come up a bit, though, and it certainly can't go down much further

Dr Johnny Fever

12:30

Any thoughts on Iwakuma's not-so-great start to the season?

august fagerstrom

12:30

Certainly can't ignore the fact that he failed a physical in the offseason.

Brett Lawrie's Empty Redbull Can

12:31

Hey August. Who do you see as more likely to return to their career norms, Martin or Tulowitzki?

august fagerstrom

12:31

I'm not real high on either. Scary thing about Tulo is the decline started last year

Brett Lawrie's Empty Redbull Can

12:32

What is wrong with Jason Heyward?

august fagerstrom

12:32

He hasn't hit many hits or homers

CecilFielder

12:32

JBJ -1.3 Def this year. Is this just a little wonky or has he looked worse this year?

august fagerstrom

12:33

I haven't seen enough of him to say for sure, but it's almost always the safe bet to just assume "a little wonky"

Up the Foxes

12:33

Run far, run fast from Keuchel?

august fagerstrom

12:33

I think Dave made a good point when he wrote about him a couple weeks back, that he was already pitching at the point where he couldn't afford to lose any more velocity, and he lost velocity

12:34

It's like an exponential drop when you're below 90 mph for each mph lost

That's not a great sign

Erik

12:34

Does the Phillies hot start accelerate the timelines for promotions for Nick Williams and JP Crawford? Both are off to good starts in the minors, and the Phillies are weak at corner outfield and shortstop. Any chance we see one or both in a few weeks, rather than a few months?

august fagerstrom

12:35

I doubt it. I think the Phillies probably understand that they're still not a legitimate contender this year

Arnie

12:35

What happens to Mazara once Choo gets activated. He is playing too well to be sent back down to the minors.

august fagerstrom

12:35

Wrote about this whole thing yesterday

Up the Foxes

12:35

I can't believe Freddie Free wants to be part of that rebuild regardless of the new stadium. The ATL farm system isn't too well stocked. Do you see him being exiled from Bravo Island by the years' end?

august fagerstrom

12:35

The ATL farm system is pretty well stocked

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