JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/29/20

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2:13

I applaud Mike Leake for making the decision he felt was best for him and his family. I'm worried about peer pressure in clubhouses - having been in them, it's ultra common. I hope people who worry about their wellbeing will be able to follow suit.

Ben Clemens

2:13

Yeah, look, if this is best for your family, you should do it.

I really sincerely believe that, and I know the takes about this are going to be awful.

2:14

"I'd do anything for the money Mike Leake would get paid, why doesn't he play and donate it to charity?' etc

Let's just get out in front of those and say, hey, quit it people, he should do what is right for him.

Derek

2:14

I was going to ask about players opting out... The NBA has already seen some mid-tier guys opt out, though no one too significant on a team with a legit title shot. How much of an impact do you think players opting out could have for MLB? Is there a point where they'd just call the season off if a certain number of players opt out?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I mean, basically no? I think that a point does exist, but it's incredibly high

2:15

And it's unlikely that we reach that point before other health concerns cause a cancelation

Nathan

2:16

If someone hits 30 homer runs how many non hone runs will he need to hit .400? Like 60 or so? He’ll probably be getting a lot of walks.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Ooh let's see

2:17

Okay, let's give them like 4.5 PA per game

So that comes out to 263 in a 56 game season for them

2:18

18% walk rate? You're right, they'll walk a ton if they hit 30 dingers

So that's 215 at bats, of which 30 are homers

56 hits gets you to .400 from there

so there you go!

2:19

Now, if you strike out 25% of the time, that still requires a .470 BABIP I think

Drop it to 20% of the time, and it's a .425 BABIP

It's hard to hit .400!

Robert

2:19

Live math is fun

Ben Clemens

2:19

Haha sorry

Jonah hill

2:20

what should we make of all these top prospects in 60 man pools? Will Adell, Franco, Kiriloff make real contributions since they’re already on the roster and could easily get hot?

Fan

2:20

Looks like teams are including lots of their top prospects in the Player Pools. Do you think this is more for training purposes or to actually help the ML roster?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Craig Edwards just wrote a little bit about this, though I haven't read it yet -- it came out after this chat started

2:21

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/four-things-we-learned-from-60-man-player-...

That said, they will probably not make real contributions :(

2:22

Teams throw them on there because that's the only way they'll get to play baseball this season

2:23

And it's of utmost importance to develop your prospects

2:24

But I mean

No service time

No pay

2:25

It's free to throw them on the roster and they won't need 60 players

It's just a way to get them to keep practicing

Sam

2:25

Another reason to add prospects to your player pool: only players in the pool may be traded in-season. So if you're hoping on Deadline Day to move for a big-league piece, you need to have the prospects in your pool to get it done.

Ben Clemens

2:25

An excellent second poin

point*

Yeah, basically, I don't expect to see many prospects called up this year

It doesn't fit with the way teams behave

I'd love it, though

Fan

2:25

Thoughts on King of Tokyo?

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