JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/29/20

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Ben Clemens

3:03

TOo much data

you should do it a lot

I'll give the exact breakdown in 10 min or something once I make the sql work

Roger

3:03

Do the financial incentives (bc c’mon, they aren’t doing this primarily to boost national morale) justify gambling with the health of so many people? Are there other incentives I’m missing?

Ben Clemens

3:03

That's a reasonable question that can be asked about freaking everything right now

3:04

I don't think it's obviously yes or obviously no

And I'm 100% certain that I'm not an unbiased observer

Because my livelihood is in some ways tied to this season -- this is definitely a positive for me

3:05

I guess my point is that yeah, they're doing it for financial reasons, no doubt. I think that you can say the way they're doing it puts some players at disproportionate risk, and some staffers as well

I'm unsure what staffers' ability to opt out of the season looks like, I'd be curious to see whta that is

But yeah, it could definitely be a bad decision. I just don't think it's cut and dried

Jackson

3:05

Do you have a pick for a team you see as the biggest possibility to "surprise" this season? As in a mediocre/bad team that wasn't likely to make the postseason but could be aided a lot by all the variance we're about to see in this much smaller sample.

Ben Clemens

3:06

DBacks are my pick

3:07

Like the team, dislike having to fight the Dodgers over 162 games

A's and Angels get a similar boost

Dan

3:07

You know as a kid I was literally the best at math in my town. I wouldn't be confident doing live math. I'm impressed you can do this without making any mistakes.

Ben Clemens

3:07

Ha one underrated part of doing live math is that it's hard to check.

3:08

Ask Meg: I make my fair share of errors even in articles

It's just harder to quickly pick up on live

Also I would say that doing simple calculations quickly is a strong suit of mine. I'm worse at in-depth stuff, but have always been more of the speed type

Changing topics:

Robert

3:08

Not related to baseball - just wear masks people!

Ben Clemens

3:08

Yeah

This

This about all kinds of risks we've talked about today

3:09

Just wear masks. It works. And honestly, let's say science is wrong and it doesn't work

Then you wore a mask

Boo hoo

Not wearing a mask is like leaving the door to your neighbor's house open when you leave

It costs you almost nothing to close the door

3:10

And helps them out

Just do it, don't be a jerk

Derek

3:10

Yeah definitely wear masks! But also don't think wearing a mask makes you immune to disease (have seen an insane amount of risky behavior from people wearing masks...)

Ben Clemens

3:10

Also a fair point

Wearing a mask doesn't make you invincible

Though Batman might disagree

3:11

And in fact, wearing a mask is more helpful for preventing *you* from spreading COVID

than preventing you from getting it

But have non-zero empathy

wearing a mask makes it less likely that others will die

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