JotCast | Brad Johnson FanGraphs Chat

Brad Johnson FanGraphs Chat - 11/3/16

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Brad Johnson

1:02

Might be 80% of the way there. But I wouldn't do that as the Rockies

you can never be sure a pitcher can pitch at Coors

they should almost never pay premium prices for pitching

Erik

1:03

With context, game 7 was obviously the best game though, right? And easily one of the best all time?

Brad Johnson

1:03

yea, the context made it special. I agree.

FelixHolt

1:03

Is there any hope for small market teams? Dave's article about the Cubs' "dynastic" future somehow made me, a Cleveland fan, feel even worse this morning than when I watched the game itself.

Brad Johnson

1:04

Well run rich teams are going to be the next MLB crisis

In the past, rich teams have mostly lit money on fire

Andrew

1:04

Did the Mets make a mistake building around SPs rather than position players?

Brad Johnson

1:04

Two answers.

1:05

Yes absolutely, building around pitching is a fools game. You think you have an ironclad rotation and it turns out to be silver painted wax

But the Mets also did well. They happened to matriculate a bunch of really good pitchers at the same time. You have to work with the tools you're handed

Dock Ellis

1:06

The best Trout trade I can think of is Trout for Carlos Correa and 3-4 prospects. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson

1:06

In theory, you're on the right track

1:07

a Trout trade has to include an established, high caliber, cost controlled player in addition to prospects

Dominik

1:07

some credit has to get to Ricketts too, eastern executed perfectly but not every big market owner allows a total tear down and basically "tanking" for 3-4 years and losing money in the process. that helped a lot. most big market teams in that situation try to fake competitiveness to sell tickets and TV.

Brad Johnson

1:07

That brings up another way that Theo was lucky

Demand in the Cubs market is surprisingly inelastic

1:08

I wonder if finally winning will change that

A cat

1:08

So is BOS management irritated enough by Theo's success that DD is pushed to unload top prospects for stars? I'm talking Verlander, Cabrera, who are rumored to be available, or Grienke, maybe Braun?

Brad Johnson

1:09

I don't think anybody is telling DD what to do in Boston

And I expect him to stay the course, looking for sensible upgrade opportunities without opening holes in the roster

that means no Sale

1:10

Braun could fit, although I suspect they're comfortable with Betts-Bradley-Benintendi as the outfield

1:10

I felt like Allen/Shaw were getting squeezed late in the game, but then realized that it was more likely the case that not having Perez back there was costing them some borderline calls. How much do you think running for Perez wound up costing the Indians in losing him behind the plate? Especially since it felt like Shaw was falling behind in every at bat.

Brad Johnson

1:11

I didn't notice a squeeze. Some close pitches, but they were clearly balls to my eyes. The Martinez swap probably hurt more than running for Perez. Although having Naquin to pinch hit would have been nice too

Dominik

1:11

regarding white Sox and compiling role players: that is what they tried the last years

Brad Johnson

1:12

exactly

it usually doesn't work

sometimes it gets you to the World Series

Erik

1:12

What is one thing the Cubs did early in their rebuild that every rebuilding team should copy?

Brad Johnson

1:13

there's no one thing. Not every rebuilder should tear down to the bones. Obviously they should all trade good vets for better prospects (i.e. Russell) but that's a no brainer

Mike

1:13

I think Fangraphs and its readers, being heavily statistics based, can appreciate that Cleveland went from a ~88% chance of winning in 2016 to something like a 20% chance to win over the next 3-4. And that hurts for a Cleveland fan who likes statistics and probabilities.

Dock Ellis

1:13

So Trout and Simmons for Correa, AJ Reed, Bregman and two low level lotto tickets. Who's saying no?

Brad Johnson

1:13

The Angels

Moog

1:14

I don't know if I buy the mystique-of-losing notion. A lot of that inelastic demand has to do with Wrigley. This has been true for the Red Sox as well post-2004--ratings drop when the team is bad but attendance is only slightly affected.

Brad Johnson

1:14

I don't know if I buy it either. I just wonder

Erik

1:14

How much of the Indians dropping the final three is attributable to their starters all throwing on short rest?

Brad Johnson

1:14

short rest seemed to really hurt Tomlin

he actually looked pretty good, but he kept throwing 0-2 cookies

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