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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/16/18
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Steve Adams
3:06
Things are happening! (Well, sort of) Hooray.
3:07
I expect an hour filled with angry Pirates fans who are even angrier at the notion that I think their moves in the past week are largely fine.
Theo
3:07
Do the Cubs have a preference of Cobb, Arrieta, Darvish, or will they take the first one that signs at their offer?
Steve Adams
3:08
I'd imagine they simply have a valuation of each player, which is assuredly less than the representatives for each is seeking. If one of that trio comes down into that range, they'll move.

It's not an exciting answer, but I don't think the Cubs feel the need to get into any sort of bidding war. If they did, they'd probably have made a bigger rotation splash by now.
Gogerty
3:09
ALL the complaints of a slow offseason. Actually seems like some decent trades and a busy next month and a half right?
Steve Adams
3:10
Yeah, we've seen plenty of blockbuster trades this offseason -- maybe more than we'd see in a standard offseason. They just feel more sparse because the free-agent market hasn't been there to bridge the gaps between them. I'd imagine that we'll soon get to a point where we're looking at an average of 1-2 FA signings per day for a few weeks.
69mets69
3:10
Give me reasons not to yell at Sandy Alderson
Steve Adams
3:11
He doesn't set the payroll. Yell at ownership? Shrug. I'm not going to make a big point to defend any of the Mets brass, ha. I think frustration from fans is largely merited.
Jkolti
3:11
Pirates fan here. One of the few fans that's okay with what they did. I was hoping you could shed some light on what this season will look like? Assuming Harrison goes, that's 30m saved. Do you see the pirates dipping into FA with that, or just riding it out this year with what they have?
Steve Adams
3:13
I would imagine they'll re-invest a portion of the money, but it's not realistic to expect them to shell out $30MM in free-agent salaries for the upcoming season. No reason not to make an upside play in the rotation or in the outfield though. (Or at second/third once Harrison goes, for that matter) ... Really, the Bucs have the chance to just grab someone whose price tag is way cheaper than expected in late January and then hope to flip them this summer or get a surprise bargain for a couple of years -- it's not a bad spot to be in, financially.
3:14
(Relatively speaking, of course. The Pirates are obviously in a poor financial spot when juxtaposed with the rest of the league. But, having several million laying around following the trades of some veterans when free agents will be getting antsy and potentially taking lesser deals is still nice)
Tim O
3:14
With the market low on OF, do you see Oakland making a splash on Cain?
Steve Adams
3:15
There are too many clubs that'd be in on him if his market started to slip in the way Encarnacion's did last winter. Oakland was in on EE because few clubs were looking for a player with such a limited defensive profile, with draft compensation attached to him, etc. Cain would fit onto just about any roster in some capacity.
Ross Atkins
3:16
How did the Blue jays do with the Curtis Granderson signing? With reports that they're still after an OF, who do you think they can/will still add?
Steve Adams
3:16
They added a semi-productive platoon bat and revered clubhouse type guy for bench player money. Seems fine to me, especially since continued pursuit of an outfielder suggests they're looking at using Granderson in the limited role for which he's best suited.
Miles Semetis
3:17
Any reason why the Indians couldn't sign Bruce and Kendrick? Their OF is weak and, combined, they would have had to pay Bruce and Kendrick $13.5 mm in 2018 and $16.5 mm in 2019.
Steve Adams
3:18
Because their funds aren't limitless -- same as any other team. Cleveland ownership is going to run it like a business and not operate at a significant loss. Their $124MM payroll in 2017 was far and away a club record, and that was coming off a deep World Series run. We have them projected at $135MM as it is. That's already a huge reach for them.

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-cleveland-indians-info/
John
3:19
Do the Giants have a chance get Michael Taylor from the Nationals if the feel Robles is ready.
Steve Adams
3:20
I think the Nats would be willing to part with Taylor if it got them an MLB-ready piece to help out their roster, though the Giants are thin in D.C.'s biggest areas of need (catching help, clear-cut fifth SP that is an upgrade over internal options for the Nats).
Bobby Evans
3:20
I have $2.5m to stay under tax.  Who can I get (if any) of Dyson, Jay, Maybin, Gomez with that?
Steve Adams
3:23
I think the Giants are more like $4MM under the tax cap, but none of that group is going to sign for 1/4.

The Giants' whole offseason confuses me. They need a massive overhaul to catch the Dodgers/Dbacks/Rockies -- not a pair of decent but expensive veterans that're going to eat up all of their financial flexibility. If they wanted to go get McCutchen and Longo because they felt they were undervalued on the trade market due to their standing as expensive members of tight-budgeted teams, that's great. Go get them. But don't then impose a luxury tax mandate on yourselves and further handcuff the moves you can make. The Giants still need a center fielder, they need rotation help and bullpen help... this all feels like a half measure.
BoSox Love
3:24
I don't get the love fest for Bradley Jr.  His numbers are very average to below average.  Why all the fuss about his trade value?
Steve Adams
3:26
He's an elite defensive center fielder that's controlled at an eminently affordable rate for another three seasons. He's shown that his floor is a marginally below-average offensive player (maybe 10-12 percent worse than the average bat) with top-shelf defense at a premium position. His ceiling, offensively, is more like 20% above the league average with the bat -- also with that same defense.

Fans suggesting that the Sox should've traded JBJ for Jose Abreu or something earlier this offseason made my head explode. That wouldn't even make the Red Sox definitively better, it'd be more expensive, and they'd have less team control remaining.
JBJ is only underwhelming if we're living in a world where defense and baserunning don't count. We do not live in that world.
Joey
3:27
Why aren't the Twins going after Reulmuto?
Steve Adams
3:27
Who's to say they're not? There are 12+ teams interested in Realmuto. Just because no one has tweeted that MN has interest doesn't mean they don't. I'm sure every contending club has at least explored the asking price.
D
3:28
How did Addison Reed sign so "cheap" compared to other RP this off-season? Seems like a steal.
Steve Adams
3:28
I'm legitimately stunned by the deal he signed. I have no idea. I thought he was a lock for $27-30MM over three years and had a real case for four.
SP Marker
3:28
Darvish to yanks? Arrieta to Texas/Brewers? Cobb to Cubs? (reunite with Maddon)
Steve Adams
3:30
Darvish is only going to NYY if they move Ellsbury, which, as I say every week, I cannot fathom happening. Rangers ownership isn't going to spend on either Yu or Arrieta. Brewers don't sound motivated to make a big SP splash even though I think they should.

If I'm picking for these three, it'd be something like Darvish to MN, Cobb to Cubs and ... I don't really know on Arrieta, honestly. Phillies are a decent darkhorse there. Cardinals have been connected, but I kind of have a hard time seeing that.
Neil Huntington
3:31
How can I justify waiting to trade McCutchen when I could've gotten some combination of Robles or Lopez/Ross last offseason?
Steve Adams
3:32
Because he couldn't have gotten Robles and Joe Ross last offseason. That's what the Pirates were asking for, which is why the Nationals went and got Adam Eaton instead.
John Mozeliak
3:32
Am I bluffing about Gregerson being closer while I shop for a real closer?
Steve Adams
3:33
I don't think Gregerson is going to close there.
Curly W.
3:33
Would Washington be smart to just sit tight until July?  Why not?
Steve Adams
3:34
I think they should be after catching upgrades now. Would be nice to have whoever is going to do the bulk of the catching -- that cannot be Wieters in 2018 -- have all of ST and the first half to get on the same page with the pitching staff.

As far as a fifth SP, I'd be fine with them waiting. They're probably going to win the NL East pretty handily... might be better fifth SP options out there then. Or, you could see an internal guy step up in unexpected fashion
DM KC GM
3:34
Does Cole set the trade market for Duffy?  Milwaukee seems like a good match as do the Phillies.
Steve Adams
3:35
Those two are in completely different situations. Two years of arb left for Cole, four guaranteed years at $60MM for Duffy.
Disgruntled Pirates Fan
3:35
Are the Pirates strict sellers now or in the next few year are they actually going to sign a big name with this excess cash? Also, do you think the Pirates moves the last few days are ok mostly because of the low value of Cole, or the high upside of the prospects/young MLB ready guys? I feel we got fleeced!
Steve Adams
3:38
There's no reason they need to go into a full tear-down, and the Rivero extension shows they have no plans to do so. They traded two fairly expensive short-term pieces for a large group of cost-controlled players that are MLB-ready.

I don't understand the notion that they got "nothing" for Gerrit Cole simply because they prioritized MLB-ready pieces rather than names on the prospects lists that everyone reads and misinterprets as gospel. (Not a knock on BA, MLB, etc. -- they do great work, but those are snapshots in time when the reality is that prospect valuation is in a constant state of flux)

Joe Musgrove was a top 100 prospect not long ago, and he has a 4.02 xFIP and SIERA through nearly 200 innings. They control him for a half decade. To say nothing of four years of Michael Feliz and his career 13 K/9 and six years of Colin Moran.

The whole notion that a trade is a failure if a team doesn't get a prospect that falls in line with a couple of published rankings is silly to me.
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