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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/26/22
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Steve Adams
12:00
Greetings all! Excited for my first chat of the new year after spending several weeks away on the paternity list, so to speak, haha. Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday season -- let's get underway!
T Story
12:01
Do you see the Angels going after me on a shorter term deal. Like 1/30 or 2/55 type
Steve Adams
12:01
I can see them trying that, but I also feel like Story will still get a pretty decent multi-year deal that outpaces either of those offers.
Urban Shocker
12:02
After this week's labor discussions, are you more optimistic a deal will get done by mid-February?
Steve Adams
12:04
I'm less optimistic. The more people we talk to in and around the game, the less likely it seems. It's great that the two sides talked, but what actual progress was there? MLB said OK to a bonus pool for pre-arb players, but they countered with $95MM less than the players wanted in that pool. (Admittedly, the players' $105MM pool seems ... aggressive.)

MLB is willing to up the minimum salary, but barely at all. The proposed increase doesn't even match inflation. When you consider that the min. salary should've been expected to rise to ~$580K this year anyhow, in keeping pace with the prior CBA, they're offering about $35K extra -- less than a 6% increase. That's in no way proportional to the increase in MLB revenues since the onset of the prior CBA.
12:05
That doesn't even get into the league's apparent offer of a lottery pick for the top three spots in the draft, which is mostly a nothingburger. No team that tanks right now is doing so under the guarantee it'll get the top pick. Tanking teams are happy to land in the top three, so that changes nothing really.
12:06
It just doesn't feel like there's been anything meaningful other than the fact that the two parties actual sat down Monday and weren't SO pissed off at one another that they refused to do it a second time.
The "progress" that's been made is extremely minimal.
Ross Atkins
12:06
It appears that Seiya Suzuki still has a lot of teams interested in him, but do you think there is still a chance that he signs with Toronto this off-season?
Steve Adams
12:07
I just don't really see another right-handed-hitting outfielder as such a large priority that Toronto would outbid the field when, as you said, there's going to be good competition for him. Not saying it's impossible, but if I were making a guess today, it wouldn't be them.
Andrew R
12:07
Phillies HAVE to break through and sign Correa, right?
Steve Adams
12:08
They don't HAVE to, but they should. I don't know if there's any one team in the league he'd benefit more -- and they have the money and the aggressive owner/baseball ops leader to do it. (all of which is why I picked them to sign him back in early November)

Shortstop hasn't been a major priority for them, but you know Boras is going to try to continually push it with both Middleton and Dombrowski (not that Correa's former representatives weren't doing the same)
Me
12:10
What would the Mariners have to realistically give up to acquire Brian Reynolds of the Pirates.  They are on record as saying that they won’t give up any of their top prospects, but how realistic is that?
Steve Adams
12:10
Acquiring Reynolds without moving at least one of the very top names in their system isn't going to happen.
Dealing Dave
12:10
I'm itching to pull the trigger on a deal when I can talk to other GMs again, what's the first thing I do?
Steve Adams
12:12
If I'm Dombrowski and I'm running the Phillies, I'm trying to get Chapman from the A's (offering Bohm+) and sign Correa. But I'm not Dombrowski and I don't run the Phillies.

More realistically, they'll try to find an option in center field (Kevin Kiermaier, Ramon Laureano, Lorenzo Cain, etc.) and probably keep adding to the bullpen.
Kirby's Ferret
12:14
Twins starting SS for 2022 is...? (give me your top three picks)
Steve Adams
12:15
I doubt it'll be someone particularly exciting. They're a good fit for Story (or, hell, for Correa -- but that ain't happening), but I don't think this front office is doling out a five-year deal or more right now. Jose Iglesias, Jonathan Villar or a maybe a trade for Nick Ahmed?
In general, I think SS-needy teams should be looking to see if the Cardinals will move on from Paul DeJong, and he'd be a good fit there as well. I like DeJong as a bounceback candidate, and even if his bat doesn't fully rebound, the glove alone makes him playable.
KamKid
12:16
I'm looking for May-June pitching reinforcements.  Who are the best guys on the market who won't take up a roster spot on opening day, but would be an in season reinforcement?  Duffy, Norris, Rosenthal?
Steve Adams
12:18
Danny Duffy comes to mind -- he's said he expects to come back as a reliever and should be ready in June. I'm not sure when Jimmy Nelson will be ready (can look into that), but he had flexor surgery in August and would be an easy pick for me if he can give anything at some point in 2022.

Matthew Boyd, if you're talking about starters.
Trade
12:19
Willson Contreras for Joey Gallo straight up?
Steve Adams
12:19
If the Cubs are moving Contreras, it's going to be to get someone who has long-term value to them. Gallo, a free agent next winter, does not.
PhilliesPhan
12:19
Why are the Phillies not in on Seiya Suzuki more? It seems like a great fit and just costs money.
Steve Adams
12:20
Just because they weren't listed in that latest report from Japan doesn't mean they're not interested at all.
JeffR
12:20
Wouldn't the Angels trading for Glasnow make sense since they only signed Thor for 1 year and may need a replacement for 2023?
Steve Adams
12:23
Virtually any team makes sense as a trade partner for Glasnow. I'm probably less bullish than Anthony on the chances of him moving -- I thought it might happen, but before the lockout -- but the logic is easy to see for a low-payroll Rays club that has to know he's likely to leave after 2023 anyhow.

Trading for Glasnow is basically the same as getting him on one of the two-year, $10MM contracts that Drew Smyly (Cubs) and Michael Pineda (Twins) got to rehab from Tommy John four years ago. That price should appeal to anyone, including the Rays, who'd justifiably ask a pretty decent return.
K Bean
12:24
Who says no? Davidson, Contreras, waters, and a couple lower tier guys for Olson.
Steve Adams
12:25
Lot of questions like these, which boil down to "Will the A's take several prospects outside of our top tier in exchange for two years of Olson?"

Oakland has taken some weird packages in the past, but I still lean toward no. If Waters' stock hadn't dropped after a lackluster 2021, maybe he'd suffice as a headliner... but I'm guessing if Waters had mashed last year and maintained his prospect status, you wouldn't be including him in that hypothetical.
Danbino
12:26
Is there a reason that an NBA style system for retaining players wouldn’t work and isn’t talked about?  Letting teams keep their homegrown players or any players from their minor league system at only a percentage against the luxury tax? Meaning the Indians/Guardians could have paid Lindor $300 million and only have $225 million counted towards the tax, for example
Steve Adams
12:28
The luxury tax was never an issue for Cleveland and Lindor -- the total amount of the guarantee was. The luxury tax is almost always going to be irrelevant for small-market teams who feel forced to trade away stars they're unable to extend. The Guardians, Pirates, Rays, A's, etc. are never going to spend enough to be anywhere near the luxury tax threshold. The issue is the size of the bulk commitment itself -- not the AAV-based luxury hit.
Myan Rountcastle
12:29
Still early and they could make a big move before the season starts, but do you see the Dodgers dipping significantly this year?  Losing Scherzer, Seager, possibly Kershaw and Jansen, Bauer situation still unresolved, Dustin May likely out for most of the year, uncertainty if Bellinger can be the player he once was.  They still have some studs but it feels like their run is over.
Steve Adams
12:31
I'd expect some notable additions for L.A. still, and I don't think they're going to take a massive step back. I'm a big Gavin Lux believer and think he'll help, and I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Cody Bellinger struggles as much in 2022 as he did in 2021.

May seems on track for a midseason return, so not sure I agree that he's likely to miss "most of the year."

Moreover, the Giants have also lost a bunch and the Padres have ample ground to gain in the first place.
Jared kelenic
12:32
Have the M's given up on me? Should they? I mean, I know it's only part of one season but it was historically bad
Steve Adams
12:35
If every team gave up on its top prospect after a rough debut campaign, Mike Trout would've been traded a decade ago.

Kelenic jumped to the Majors after barely playing in AAA and under an immense spotlight due to his status as an elite prospect, the centerpiece of an infamous trade and the comments made by former CEO Kevin Mather. He struggled. It happens.

He's also still only 22, and he hit .248/.331/.524 with 14 extra-base hits (7 HR, 6 2B, 1 3B) in September.
Grayson
12:35
People on here always ask about their teams 'buying' a prospect, but this hasn't happened since the Cozart-Wilson trade.
Steve Adams
12:36
The Red Sox sort of bought a pair of prospects from the Brewers in the JBJ deal, but generally speaking yes, it's much more rare than fans seemingly would like. Swapping straight up bad/unwanted contracts is far more common -- and even those deals aren't ALL that frequent.
Trey Mancini
12:37
Do I have any trade value?
Steve Adams
12:38
Sure, but it's down and the O's aren't going to sell low and take a dumpy return on a player of that standing both in the clubhouse and among the fanbase.
Scott Rolen
12:39
Do I get into the Hall of Fame next year? Also, what is your favorite player to make comeback player of the year this upcoming season?
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