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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/5/18
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Steve Adams
2:10
Spontaneous Friday chat!
2:11
Also: a makeup chat since I was out on Tuesday due to the fact that it was my girlfriend's birthday. Blame her for your lack of Tuesday inanity from yours truly.
Luke
2:11
Hosmer to the Cardinals?
Steve Adams
2:12
Nah -- I don't think they view him as enough of an upgrade, and certainly not at the price Boras is looking for. If you're looking for dark horses, I still wonder if the Rockies will swoop in and get weird, but I doubt it. Padres and Royals seem like the teams to really consider.
Dan C
2:12
Who won the Scott Alexander trade?
Steve Adams
2:15
It's so, so rare that you can look at a trade the day or day after it's made and judge it. (The Shelby incident notwithstanding.) The Dodgers got five years of an interesting reliever. Royals saved $10MM or thereabouts and got a semi-plausible rotation candidate. Sox picked up a pair of summer trade chips without parting with much.

We won't be able to accurately judge it for years, and even then, there'll be trickledown effects (e.g. who do the Sox get for Soria this summer?) that further muddy the picture.

I think there's sound logic to that trade on all sides.
Boring answer, but most "trade grades" -- especially of the immediate nature -- are pretty short-sighted hot takes.
Matt
2:16
Cubs pivot to a Happ for Salazar trade if the organization is not able to acquire a Darvish, Arrieta, or Cobb?  Maybe Tillman as a flier?
Steve Adams
2:17
Salazar seems like the type of guy they'd go after, yeah, and I do think Happ would pique Cleveland's interest, though they're already a bit stacked in the OF corners and at 2B.

Tillman... eh. They have World Series aspirations. They're going to want more certainty than rolling the dice on a reclamation project -- especially after they kind of already did that once with the Chatwood gamble.
Zeb
2:17
Hearing Mets are now involved in McCutchen talks. It's it an inevitably he's gone this offseason? What's your prediction for destination?
Steve Adams
2:17
I wouldn't take anything regarding the Mets spending reasonably significant money too seriously. I do think McCutchen moves.
RyGuy
2:18
Do you think the Diamondbacks  need to sign a catcher? If so could you see Jonathan Lucroy being a fit?
Steve Adams
2:19
I think they need to do something at catcher, but Lucroy is probably going to be more expensive than they're willing to go unless they can move some salary or unless he takes a surprisingly tiny guarantee. Suppose they could go 2-3 years and backload the hell out of the contract.

But the D-backs' front office is huge into framing (hence Mathis, John Ryan Murphy) and Lucroy cratered in that regard last year. That was true of Iannetta when they signed him as well, but they plucked him off the scrap heap at $1.5MM. No way Lucroy's taking that type of discount.
Steve
2:20
Will KC unload more salary like Jason Hammel or Kelvin Herrera? Maybe Herrera would have more value in July?
Steve Adams
2:21
I'd imagine the Soria trade is the first of many. Hammel has a bit of value as an innings eater for a team looking to round out the fifth spot in its rotation, and his K/BB numbers and stomachable FIP should create some level of interest. A team like the Mariners, for instance, could look at him as a basically a free back-of-the-rotation arm -- sort of like how they viewed Gallardo last year.
2:22
Well -- "free" in the sense that he won't really cost prospects. They could get him for taking on $8-9MM of the salary, I'd imagine.
OG
2:22
Would Marlins bite at Matt Kemp, Alex Verdugo, Gavin Lux and another lower level prospect for Yelich???
Steve Adams
2:22
Nope.
Goose
2:23
Why don't the Phillies take a shot at Darvish or Arrieta?  Their #1 is protected and it will only cost them money.  The young lineup and a front three of Darvish/Arrieta, Nola and Eichoff would make them a plausible contender.
Steve Adams
2:24
Every team's top pick is protected under the new CBA.

I think there's a sense that they could go after Arrieta, especially with MacPhail and Klentak having Baltimore roots. Darvish's price will probably be too close to top-of-market value, but if Arrieta ultimately starts conceding that he's going to need to take 4-5 years at a higher AAV, sure I can see the Phillies in on that.
Matt
2:24
The Puig-JBJ trade talk was rejected mostly because 3 years vs. 2 year of team control, right?
Steve Adams
2:25
I'd imagine so, yeah. JBJ has a much higher floor as well and a comparable ceiling, and he's cheaper this season as well.
Jon Daniels
2:25
More likely:   Arietta or Cain?
Steve Adams
2:26
Cain. Arrieta's still going to cost $100MM+ -- or at least command something like a three-year deal with an enormous AAV and an opt-out after one season. The new-age pillow deal.
Dave
2:26
Alex Avila to Nationals as back up catcher?
Steve Adams
2:26
More like Alex Avila to the Nationals as starting catcher. But yes, I think that should happen.
Anything to take playing time away from Wieters is a good thing for the Nats.
Ca$hman
2:27
Is there a framework for an Ellsbury-Dee Gordon trade that could work?
Steve Adams
2:29
Why would the Mariners want the more expensive, older and inferior player in that scenario? Doesn't work for me unless the Yankees are adding an MLB-ready rotation piece, eating a huge portion of Ellsbury's contract and maybe even adding another piece. Otherwise the Mariners are just getting worse, older and more expensive.

Generally, I know Cashman has made some great moves this offseason (and over the last several years in total), but trading Ellsbury seems beyond ambitious.
Bry
2:30
Where does Yu ultimately end up?
Steve Adams
2:32
I was pushing Minnesota for Darvish back before we even launched our Top 50 free agent list (the official MLBTR pick was the Cubs, though that prediction was the sum of multiple opinions) and there's nothing that's really come along to make me change my thinking in that regard.

They need the rotation upgrade, 60% of their division is more or less tanking, they have a blank payroll slate, Levine loves him, etc.
Steve M
2:32
Am I correct in feeling that the Red Sox signing Mitchie "Two Bags" is probably going to be it or do they REALLY have a plan for a bat and possibly SP (Cole, Pitt)
Steve Adams
2:33
I'll be surprised if they don't add another bat.
For the Ladies
2:33
Will Brian Dozier and his killer smile get traded or extended?
Steve Adams
2:33
Can't trade this flow:
2:34
Also, the Twins are trying to win in 2018, and Brian Dozier is their best player. He won't be traded, and I do think they'll try to extend him this spring.
STL Dave
2:34
I'm gonna build a fort with all the pillow contracts handed out in Feb... how about Moose to the Cardinals for 1 year 25m?
Steve Adams
2:36
I don't mind the Mooser/Cards fit, though I think Boras will push for a Kazmir/Cespedes-style deal if he's taking any type of pillow deal. Might not be 3/75 for Moose like it was with Yo, but something like $50-60MM over three years with an opt out and a hefty year one AAV.
popcorn
2:36
Is Kipnis on Indians opening day roster. If Yes what position is he playing??
Steve Adams
2:36
Yes and left field? I'm not teeming with confidence in Brantley's health.
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