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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/18/22
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Steve Adams
11:07
It's a rare (maybe unprecedented?) two-chat day at MLBTR. Huzzah!
We might have a few more of these in the coming weeks as we go through our new team-specific chats as part of the Offseason Outlook series. We'll try to give an advance notice for each team-focused chat to give fans of those clubs the opportunity to plan ahead and participate.
KramSF
11:08
Will the giants go after trae turner or aaron judge, if so, what will it take to get it done? 10/350?
Steve Adams
11:11
Sure, I think they'll be involved to an extent on both players. I doubt either signs a 10-year deal. That'd carry Judge through age 40 and Turner through 39. The days off decade-long deals for guys on the wrong side of 30 have kind of been relegated to the past. Modern front offices are more keen to do higher AAVs on relatively shorter terms.

Most top free agents signing at this age are signing through 37. That's an 8-year deal for Turner. I think Judge will be an exception and can see him signing an 8- or 9-year deal. Judge will set a new record AAV for position players, and I expect him to clear 35 with ease.
Turner also has a chance to reach or top that $35MM AAV, though I don't consider that to be as certain.
Austin
11:12
do they reds make any notable moves this off season?
Steve Adams
11:14
Probably not "notable" in the way you're implying. They could find a way to dump Mike Moustakas' final year, and I'd call that "notable" -- but in terms of adding a big-name free agent on a multi-year deal, I don't think so. GM Nick Krall has all but said next year they're going to focus on developing young players. He indicated that they might not have anyone who'll report to camp with a set job -- the implication being everyone will have to earn their playing time. That is not a portent to signing any free agents of note or acquiring any proven MLB talent:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/gm-nick-krall-discusses-reds-ro...
Mark Web
11:14
The Mets have decisions to make with picking up options on players.  Carlos Carrasco is 35 goingon 36. Mets need to invest their money better with Carlos Rodon.
Steve Adams
11:16
Carrasco's $14MM option has a $3MM buyout. It's a net, one-year $11MM decision for the Mets, which makes it an easy call to pick up, in my view. Nothing says they can't pick up his option and still sign Rodon (though Rodon is among the riskier long-term plays in recent free agent memory given his injury history and likely price tag()
Whitesox
11:16
Mitch Hangier is a dream fit in RF?
Steve Adams
11:18
Can you call a 32-year-old who's played 277 of 546 possible games (50.7%) over the past four years a "dream" fit? I like Haniger as a player, but the injury risk is palpable, and it's an annual fight to keep his OBP over .300. I feel like the Sox have had countless corner bats with plus power and sub-par OBP skills over the years, so I guess in that sense, Haniger fits their mold.
Rangers fan
11:18
Over or under on Martin Perez contract. 3/$47
Steve Adams
11:18
I'm much lighter than that in the annual value. I think something in the 3/30 range.
ookla the mok
11:19
What's your take on the Phils ss situation next year? Will they run with Stott or will they land one of the top 4.
Steve Adams
11:21
I expect them to be heavily involved in the SS market. Stott didn't exactly seize the SS  job with his bat, and his defense rated much better at second base anyhow (where Segura will be a free agent).

Besides, when it's a matter of signing Correa, Bogaerts, Turner, etc. -- most teams will and should be willing to move an incumbent to another position. Tim noted this in the Cubs chat he just had, but it's why the Cubs have already talked to Nico Hoerner about a position change. It's easier to get buy-in on a change from the guy you already have in house, and most guys playing an average or better SS are capable of quality defense at 2B or 3B as well.
Twins Fan
11:21
Does Edwin Diaz make sense for the Twins bullpen next year? There's no way that the Twins go into next season with a half-baked (at best) bullpen, is there?
Steve Adams
11:23
I think Addison Reed is the only free-agent reliever the Twins have signed to a multi-year deal in the past 15 years. If there's one I'm missing, it was at far less than Reed's $16.75MM guarantee.

That is a circuitous route to say that I'd place the chances of Minnesota signing Diaz, who could be the game's first $100MM reliever, at somewhere between 0% and 1%.

Yes, the Twins need to address their bullpen. No, it won't be by signing Edwin Diaz.
Calexico
11:24
Where do u see Correa going?  He will be linked to everyone but that’s just Boras being Boras. But what are realistic teams?
Steve Adams
11:28
He'd be linked to plenty of teams regardless of whether he was repped by Boras or an agent you've never heard of -- because there's going to be a genuinely wide berth of teams interested in him.

I do think the Twins have at least a small chance at re-signing him, even though it'd take the largest deal in club history (by a large margin). The payroll outlook there is pretty blank. Other teams I can see legitimately entering the mix: Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox (if Bogaerts leaves).

Angels have an obvious opening but I don't know if they'd spend like that while Moreno's trying to sell the team. Orioles will up payroll and Mike Elias drafted Correa, but that'd be one hell of a way to announce the rebuild is formally over; not sure I envision such a dramatic first free agent splash in Baltimore. Cardinals could use a SS but doubt they spend this aggressively.
Rob
11:29
I'd love for the Astros to pick up Nimmo, but I'm sure competition will be fierce.  Are there any CF's who are trade candidates?
Steve Adams
11:33
Ramon Laureano is the obvious one. I feel like Bellinger will be traded or non-tendered.  Michael A. Taylor is a cheap, glove-first option. Kiermaier will be a free agent. Pirates will listen on Bryan Reynolds, but he'll cost the moon. D-backs are deep in young OFs and aren't trading Corbin Carroll, but I could see them parting with either Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Thomas didn't hit in his debut season but entered the year as a consensus top-40 or so overall prospect
David
11:33
What are your thoughts on Cleveland going with Civale instead of Bieber on short rest?
Steve Adams
11:34
I saw Travis Sawchik (I think it was Travis) point out that Bieber's never pitched on short rest. Whether it was Bieber or Civale, either was going to have a short leash if things went awry.
Ben Cherington
11:34
Could I make a "splash move" on a mid-tier free agent this offseason? Someone like Sean Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Trey Mancini, etc?
Steve Adams
11:35
I don't think those three are really all in the same tier, but none should be so expensive that the Pirates can't afford to sign them.
11:36
The broader question is one of whether anyone from that group wants to sign in Pittsburgh, knowing the rebuild is still in full swing. I think all three will have interest from contending clubs. The best way for Pittsburgh to do something like this would be to overpay to sign Manaea to a multi-year deal that allows him to opt out after the first season or something. That doesn't seem like a wise investment for them.
11:38
A better "splash" move would be to sign a younger free agent to a multi-year deal that could wind up looking like a bargain. There aren't a ton of options like this out there, though. Maybe pay Benintendi for 3-4 years and hope your player development team can do more with him than he's produced the past few seasons? There's the obvious Cherington/Benintendi Red Sox connection there.
13Morgs
11:38
Most surprised??? Phillies in the NLCS or Dodgers with 111 wins not in NLCS
Steve Adams
11:40
I'm not really "surprised" by either. I generally think any of the teams to reach the playoffs were good enough to go on a run (as is the case most years). The Phillies are way better than people give them credit for after an ugly start to the season. The Dodgers are awesome, but in a five-game series (or 3-game, or 7-game) anything can happen.
Red Sox
11:40
JD Martinez a perfect fit to be a veteran bat in Detroit? Tigers reunion would be cool, I expect him to get a 1 year deal around $15M, is that about right?
Steve Adams
11:41
Yeah something in that range makes sense for a contract. Does JDM want to go back to Detroit when the rebuild hasn't progressed much since the time he was traded five years ago, though? He'll have interest from teams with a better shot at contending.
BhamBrave
11:41
According to Cot's, Jake Odorizzi has a $12.5M player option with a $6.25M buyout. Do the Braves buy him out or let him exercise the option?
Steve Adams
11:42
That's not how it works. It's entirely Odorizzi's decision. He can choose $12.5MM, and if he declines, he gets a $6.25MM buyout. I think he'll just take the $12.5MM, though if you want to make the case that he can top the net $6.25MM in free agency, I can see it. I just don't think it'd be by much.
Cookie
11:42
do you think Trea’s East Coast bias is true?
Steve Adams
11:44
Turner himself has come out and said it's really not, and that he contributed to that narrative because he was trying to influence where he might get traded.

Maybe he'd rather play for the Phillies than the Dodgers, all things equal, but if the Dodgers offer him 8/270 and the Phillies are at 7/240, the bigger offer's going to talk.
11:45
(That's not to suggest it's a Dodgers-or-Phillies only outcome... just using two oft-cited examples for his suitors)
stash
11:46
Will the Tigers go after Correa and have Baez at second
Steve Adams
11:46
Don't really think Scott Harris' plan to fix the team is to just throw hundreds of millions of dollars more at it.
Who says no first?
11:47
Edwin Rios for Garret Cooper. Dodgers get a guy who can stay healthy and Miami gets a younger version with more control.
Steve Adams
11:47
Coop's hurt a fair amount, but he hits every time he's healthy. Would rather have him, shorter club control notwithstanding.
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