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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/1/22
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Steve Adams
3:00
Greetings all! I'm going to feed my obnoxiously loud and hungry cat, which I should have done before I published this, ha. Will get underway in one minute.
3:01
Mmkay. Waffle will not go hungry. Let's begin!
The Show
3:02
Noticed the Mariners Offseason Outlook was published yesterday, any word on when the accompanying live chat will be? Much appreciated.
Steve Adams
3:03
Not 100% sure, but Mark will be around on Thursday so that's a good target. We usually post the links to the team-specific chats a few hours in advance.

If you have our mobile app, you can set it to give you alerts for anything tagged with the Mariners. Or to give you alerts whenever there's a chat of any kind. Just search "MLBTR chats" when you're setting up notifications.
Who says no
3:04
Adolis Garcia for Bryan De La Cruz and Edward Cabrera
Steve Adams
3:05
I'm not giving up Cabrera alone for Garcia, personally. But, I'm not a huge fan of guys with zero OBP skills to speak of, even if the defense and power are compelling. Garcia's a good player right now, but guys who can't draw a walk at all tend to faceplant extra hard when one of their other skills slows down.
Phillip
3:05
Gorman/Hence get it done for Murphy?
Steve Adams
3:06
The A's tend to like volume packages, so I'd expect some 3rd/4th pieces from further down the Cardinals' system in that scenario -- and maybe you see Oakland include a reliever or something to help balance it all out. But I generally think there's a reasonable enough framework in there.
FZ
3:07
Serious chances the Giants land Judge, Rizzo and Turner?  Only one? two? none?
Steve Adams
3:09
Getting your hopes up for your team -- whether it's the Giants or anyone else -- to sign an exact combination of any three free agents is a recipe for disappointment. That's especially true when you're looking at the clear #1 free agent (Judge) and the #2 or #3 free agent, depending on your preference between Turner/Correa.

There's practically a 0% chance they sign all three of those players. One? Sure, I can buy that. Two? Sure, if it's Rizzo and one of the big two.

Broadly speaking, though, if you were to ask me to place a bet on any of those three individual players -- "Giants or the field," I'd take the field.
Duffy Scliff
3:10
So in unsurprising fashion, Chris Sale did not opt out. If he really struggles through this year, is there a chance the Sox just eat the money and DFA him before the end of the contract? Or make a real effort to offload him in a trade?
Steve Adams
3:11
He has full veto power over any trade. I don't really understand the calls to cut a guy when the primary reason the investment has been a sunk cost is because of health.

If Sale were out there taking up space and getting pummeled on the regular, at the expense of a rotation spot for Brayan Bello or something, I get that.

As it is, he's just been sitting on the IL anyway, and he's getting paid regardless, so why bother to DFA him?
3:12
See if he can come back healthy and contribute. If he's injured, try again in 2024.

Now, if he comes back next season and gets wrecked for a 6.00 ERA in 100 innings, yeah you're close enough to the end of the deal that maybe you want to dump it one way or another, I suppose.
Phillip
3:12
is STL a realistic fit for Swanson, move Edman  back to 2nd.  Imagine that INF
Mo’s burner
3:12
Is this finally the year I land a premier FA ($100+ mill contract)?
Steve Adams
3:15
The Cards already have a pair of $100MM+ contracts on the books (Goldy, Arenado) and a projected payroll of more than $157MM next season before adding anyone. I know Mozeliak said payroll will increase, and you should absolutely take him at his word on that, but adding another nine-figure deal to Goldy and Arenado is a lot to forecast.

On paper, sure I can see how they can sign Swanson and get him into the payroll, and yeah, the infield defense would be great. I don't know that I consider that the likeliest outcome for Swanson or the Cardinals, but it's at least feasible.
Jason
3:15
Any chance the Rays look to move Yandy Diaz? could Tyler Glasnow be pryed away with a top 50 prospect?
Steve Adams
3:17
Yeah I can definitely see them listening on Diaz or Arozarena this winter.

You never say never with the Rays, but they've got Glasnow for $5.35MM next year and $25MM in 2024. I don't think he's really available. Also a bad look to trade Glasnow after he was so emphatic in the deal's aftermath about how Tampa Bay is right where he wanted to be. Doubt that'd go unnoticed by guys in future extension talks.
Kermit the Frog
3:17
How would you rank the following teams in likelihood of signing Willson Contreras? Guardians, Cubs, Cardinals, and Mets
Steve Adams
3:19
I don't by any means think it's going to be that quartet of teams alone, but they all make sense. Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Guardians if you want me to rank them, I suppose. Cards have the need, money and no obvious starter. Mets have the money and a starter they'd like to upgrade over. Cubs have had forever to extend him, didn't get it done, but have the money/need. (I think they'll go another direction.) Guardians .... I'm just never going to pick them as a landing spot for any free agent who I expect to command $80MM+
Steve Cohen’s burner
3:20
Any chance the Mets are in on Correa and moving him to 3b or 2b?
Steve Adams
3:20
With his arm, you'd assume 3B is the spot for him. But Correa loves shortstop, takes pride in playing it, etc. I don't think he'd want to move, so you're going to have to outbid the field pretty handily to put him at third base.
Cole
3:20
Does Rodon get 5 years or 6?
Steve Adams
3:21
Anthony Franco and I have gone back and forth about this about 100 times. I think he'll get five at a higher AAV; Anthony's at six years with a slightly lower AAV than me. Either way, we both expect him to pretty handily top Gausman/Ray and get into the $135-150MM range.
Minasian
3:23
We started cutting payroll with trade of Raisel Iglesias and more to come. Loup and Tepera have any trade value?
Steve Adams
3:26
I don't think you can say the Angels are going to just slash payroll to the max because of the Igleisas deal. They viewed Iglesias as a key final piece on what they hoped was a contender and were able to cut bait on what could well have become a cumbersome long-term commitment. Tepera and Loup aren't really comparable.

I do think if they wanted to move one of them, they could. But the return wouldn't be all that great. It's basically market value for a pair of mid-30s relievers there.
I should say, you're talking about a pair of relievers who are being paid about market value. There's not much surplus value there.
Bon Jourvi
3:26
Twins a good fit for Xander? Hold spot until Brooks / Royce is ready, shift to 3B/DH as he ages?
Steve Adams
3:27
Twins are a good spot for any of the four notable free agent shortstops, though I'd put Turner at the bottom of the pile just because I feel like if they're going to spend to that level, they'd spend on the guy they already know/love (Correa). I expect Bogaerts and Swanson to cost a good bit less (though both still a ways over $100MM -- close to $200MM for Bogaerts probably)
Mozielok
3:28
I have to be in on Thor, right? his power sinker mixed with our infield defense could make him a Cy young contender again.
Steve Adams
3:29
Syndergaard had a 42% ground-ball rate (below average) and averaged 93.9 mph on his sinker in 2022. It's not really the power stuff it was pre-surgery.
My name
3:29
Which team will have the highest payroll in MLB next year?
Steve Adams
3:29
The Mets, in all likelihood.
Michael Conforto
3:29
What kind of deal am I looking at this Winter?
Steve Adams
3:30
I think he'll just look to max out for a year, though it's at least possible Boras would try to go for two years with the second being a player option to kind of hedge. Will probably still be north of $10MM even if just the one year... $12-15MM range feels plausible. But that's just a guess.
Orioles
3:30
Burnes seems like the kinda guy that would fit really well in Baltimore. Does a package centered around DL Hall, Jordan Westburg and Austin Hays entice the Brewers enough to move him?
Steve Adams
3:30
I don't think that's nearly enough for Corbin Burnes, no.
The Judge is…..out
3:31
best guess on Judge’s contract, length and amount
Steve Adams
3:32
I think he'll break Harper's free-agent record ($330MM) and be the first position player with an AAV north of $40MM. Exact contract predictions will come out on our annual Top 50 free agent list, which we'll publish after the World Series and after teams have issued qualifying offers.
Matthew
3:33
Any chance a team makes a significant offer to Matt Carpenter? (Say $10 million)
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