You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/21/23
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
8:28
Good morning all! I'll get this rolling at 1pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you're so inclined! Looking forward to it, as always!
1:01
And a good afternoon to you now! Let's get rolling
Kramer
1:02
I felt like the Nola contract seemed reasonable, especially the AAV. But, oh the years!  How do you see Nola getting 7 effect the rest of the market. Yamamoto would seem to be able to stand firm for 10. Does gray get 5(!) now?
Steve Adams
1:03
The years on top free agents are more secondary. The AAV is appealing/reasonable because it was designed to be as such; the two parties in instances like this are basically negotiating on a price tag for the remainder of Nola's career. Once that's met, you can look at spreading the sum out in a variety of ways. The Phillies went with a longer-term, lower-AAV approach, which is sensible for a club that has plenty of nine-figure deals on the books and figures to regularly be shopping at the top end of the free-agent market.
1:04
This could just as easily have been 6/170ish, I would imagine. And, in that sense, I don't really think the length of the deal adds any pressure to go longer-term on Yamamoto or Gray
Bobsince1955
1:04
What's the chances of the Royals signing Woodruff and/or Wacha?
Steve Adams
1:06
Wacha seems totally viable. I think that was actually my pick in our FA contest.

Woodruff feels far likelier to go to a big-payroll club that can afford to pay $20MM+ for what's going to effectively be one season (2025) and maybe a month or so in 2024, if things go well with his rehab. The Royals HAVE the funds to do that, but their margin for error on contracts like this is obviously a good bit thinner than a team like the Dodgers, Red Sox, etc.
Fans
1:06
You can’t tell me Gibson is the best Mo can do?!?!?
Steve Adams
1:08
I figured one of the Cardinals' SP additions would be of this Lynn/Gibson variety -- bulk innings to solidify the back of the rotation. I'm more surprised to see them add two starters from this bucket in rapid succession -- to jump the market to do so, no less. In my view, it adds pressure on them to get a real top-of-the-rotation arm, whether that's signing Yamamoto, trading for Glasnow, etc. remains to be seen.

It's not the best start to the team's professed desire to add three (or more, I guess) arms to the rotation, though.
Anthony
1:08
What are the chances of the Atlanta Braves landing Sonny Gray?
Steve Adams
1:10
Reasonable enough, though I'm more skeptical of it than most. Signing a relatively marquee free agent to a four-year deal just hasn't been in Alex Anthopoulos' playbook as the Braves' baseball ops leader. Marcell Ozuna is the only free agent he's signed for four years. He hasn't gone past three years on a free agent arm, and those deals have been exclusively for relievers (Will Smith, Joe Jimenez). I guess you can kind of count Reynaldo Lopez as a starter, since it seems they'll at least take a look at him in that role, but again, that's less than half the guarantee Gray will command and probably one year less than he'll get
1:11
Not saying it CAN'T happen, and the Braves certainly have the resources. But they're also in luxury tax territory already -- for a second straight year -- so you can add a 30% tax to whatever Sonny will get. We predicted 4/90, so add another $6.75MM onto that $22.5MM AAV this year. Do the Braves really want to spend around $29MM this season to add Gray to the rotation? Again, not saying it's impossible or anything, but I'm skeptical.
Fraser
1:11
What type of deal could woodruff get? A short term deal to see how he recovers or a longer term contract with an opt-out?
Steve Adams
1:12
I think it'll be two years in the $20-30MM range. I'm sure there are teams that'd be open to three years or more, but the AAV would have to be at a pretty hearty discount given the uncertainty regarding his shoulder. At that point, Woody probably just bets on himself, takes the short-term deal, hopes all goes well in 2025, and then looks for a much larger payday in free agency during the 2025-26 offseason.
JN
1:13
Could Shane Bieber be traded before opening day?
Steve Adams
1:13
I think he will be.
And probably for less than Cleveland fans expect. The name value with Bieber is greater than the actual present-day value now that it's just one year of him, the velo is down, he dealt with some injuries, etc.
Mike2023
1:14
Do you think Ohtani could become a closer?
Steve Adams
1:14
I don't see why not, but the plan for him early on will be to return as a starter, I'm sure
1:15
I also think he can play a fine right field and possibly even center (he certainly has the tools) if he stops pitching at some point during the next FA contract
Guest
1:15
With the Mets largely playing for 2025, how do you feel about them signing someone like Ryce Hoskins to a two year deal, giving them a solid power hitting DH for 2024 and a solid backfill at 1B for 2025 assuming they lose Alonso.  Good idea or bad idea?
Steve Adams
1:16
I think any two-year deal for Hoskins is likely going to have an opt-out (or conditional opt-out, if he reaches enough plate appearances). Scott Boras negotiated the same type of deal for Michael Conforto after he missed a whole season due to injury, and Hoskins is also a Boras guy.

So on paper, sure it seems fine, but in practice I think you'd just be looking at a scenario where both Alonso and Hoskins might be free agents again next winter, at which point the 2025 safety net you kind of described is moot.
John
1:16
Cease traded this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:17
Will the White Sox trade Dylan Cease this winter?
Yes (87.1% | 995 votes)
 
No (12.9% | 147 votes)
 
Total Votes: 1,142
Early indications from the group lean yes, ha, which is where I lean as well.
CardsFan
1:17
I see the Cards signings of Lynn and Gibson as proof Matz moves to the bullpen where he was pretty good last year.  If they get Yamamoto and Grey these signings are good and Matz in the bullpen makes sense...right?
Steve Adams
1:18
Could mean Matz moving to the 'pen, sure. Could mean they try to trade Matz even.

But I would not bank on the Cardinals now adding two of the top five FA starters on top of two back-end innings eaters. I wouldn't have banked on them adding both Gray and Yamamoto even from the outset. The competition for those guys is going to be fierce.
Rob
1:18
What are the chances that the Phillies could get some interest in Taijuan Walker
Steve Adams
1:21
I don't think there's much -- any, really -- surplus value there. If he were a free agent right now, would anyone predict more than the three years and $54MM remaining on his contract? I don't think so. Velo dipped a little, career-low strikeout rate, career-high walk rate. He'll pitch next year at 31.

I don't think it's a terrible deal necessarily, and maybe some team would have interest in a straight salary-dump type of situation, but it doesn't seem like that's on the Phillies' radar. They'd just need to replace him with another source of somewhat reliable innings anyhow.
Farhan
1:22
Woodruff and Ohtani on 2 year deals, to prove they can still pitch?
Steve Adams
1:22
No way Ohtani's taking a two-year deal in my mind. Woodruff, sure, and that type of signing is very much in Farhan Zaidi's playbook.
Nesh
1:22
Any thoughts on the Tigers going after Whit Marrifield on a 1 yr deal?
Steve Adams
1:22
I think he'll get two years
Mr Thirst
1:22
Coke or Coke Zero?
Steve Adams
1:22
Zero!
Full-sugar sodas are gross to me now
Bartolo's cologne
1:23
Kirby for Westburg and Holiday? Throw in Kjerstad too maybe?
Steve Adams
1:24
As good as George Kirby is, I'm not sure you could get the O's to bite on Jackson Holliday AND Jordan Westburg (let alone adding Kjerstad in there). But man would that be a fun/insane offseason blockbuster, ha.
John
1:25
Is woodruff out of the Orioles “price range”?
Steve Adams
1:25
Doubt it, but he also doesn't do much to help them in '24.
Load More Messages
Connecting…