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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/10/21
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Steve Adams
11:22
Greetings all! I took some time off late last week/early this week, so I wasn't around for my usual Tuesday time slot. Figured I'd do an impromptu makeup chat today!
Mike Shildt
11:23
Am I gonna manage next year
Steve Adams
11:24
He's not one of the Mets' candidates, so it doesn't seem like it. Could still interview and get the gig in Oakland, but guessing they'll go with a rookie skipper (i.e. as affordable a manager as possible).

I think Shildt will get another managerial gig in the near-ish future, though, and I'm sure he'll have coaching and front-office/player development opportunities in the interim.
Bluejays
11:24
freeman to the jays is possible do you think? they clearly have the money if they were in on seager.
Steve Adams
11:25
It's technically possible in the sense that, sure, they have the payroll space. I still think it'll be Atlanta, and on the 5% chance or whatever that he goes somewhere else, I'd probably pick the Dodgers.
Tom
11:25
Do you think the Phillies were deliberately sitting back and waiting to pounce after there's a labor agreement?
Dave Dombrowski
11:25
Will John Middleton allow me to go over the luxury tax?
Steve Adams
11:27
Well, they didn't completely sit back. Signing Corey Knebel is a pretty notable move.

I do imagine the CBA/luxury tax uncertainty played a role to an extent, though. They were within a couple million of the tax threshold in 2021 and surely want to know where it is in 2022.

Middleton hasn't been willing to pay the tax in the past, but we're talking a decade of no playoff appearances despite signing Harper and Wheeler, trading for Realmuto, etc. He *should* be willing to go over the threshold. I'm not sure there's any single team I think Carlos Correa makes more sense for than the Phillies -- but it's not my money and I'm not calling the shots there.
Robert Suárez
11:28
Will I be the closer for the Padres this season?
Steve Adams
11:28
Probably not to start the season, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in that role eventually, no.
Kristen
11:29
Reasonable SP and OF targets for Rangers after their wild spending?
Steve Adams
11:30
They already signed Jon Gray, so there's one. I love them as a fit  for Seiya Suzuki and think they're a good match for one of the A's or Reds starters in a trade (Sean Manaea or Sonny Gray, perhaps).
JR
11:30
At what point does the narrative stop being "Freeman's not leaving Atlanta..." You'd have to think if Atlanta and him could reach an extension they'd would've by now, right? Is the assumption just that they would be dumb to let him go?
Steve Adams
11:30
For me, the narrative stops when he actually signs elsewhere.
Pray for Baseball
11:31
How much baseball do you think we’ll actually miss in 2022?
Steve Adams
11:31
I'm not too worried about missing any of the regular season.
...Yet.
O
11:32
How much do teams acknowledge a “bad team tax” like the Rangers having to go to 7 years for Semien and 10 for Seager.
Steve Adams
11:33
I dunno, I think 10 was always likely for Seager.

The seventh year was definitely a "well we were real bad" type of tax on the Semien deal though -- especially since it really didn't discount the AAV at all.
Walter
11:33
Schwarber or Pham as FA targets for Guardians??
Steve Adams
11:34
Those are two wildly different players and wildly different price points. I don't see any way Cleveland would spend the $16-20MM Schwarber could command annually over 3-4 years.

Tommy Pham, sure, he makes sense as he'll likely sign a pretty reasonable one-year deal.
M’s
11:34
We can’t be done with Ray, can we?
Steve Adams
11:35
No, I think Ray (and Adam Frazier) was just the beginning of the Mariners' upgrades.
Mario
11:35
Think Yankees try to get Correa or story for less years or do they really think volpe  will be legit
Steve Adams
11:37
Even if they think Volpe and/or Peraza are future stars, I don't see why they shouldn't be in on the shortstops. You can always move Volpe/Peraza (or Story) to another position at some point. To this point, it seems they haven't really considered a big SS splash yet, though. The extent to which the luxury-tax threshold is increased will likely dictate their level of aggression post-lockout, but they already dipped under in 2021. I think they should've already been in on the pre-lockout spending spree.
GJ
11:38
Who do you think are favorite s to win the NL central this year?
Steve Adams
11:40
We don't even know what rosters will look like come Opening Day! Still a lot of offseason left.

That said, I lean Brewers, just because Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta teeters on unfair. Cardinals are obviously a contender, though.

We'll see if the Cubs do any more than Stroman/Gomes/Frazier. Right now, I don't think Chicago is a legitimate threat. The Reds are cutting payroll and weakening their roster, Pirates aren't going to be in there yet.
enkidu
11:40
will correa really get his contract? I dont sell many suitors avaliable
Steve Adams
11:41
The top guys tend to get paid, with or without obvious suitors. I wrote about Correa's ostensible lack of suitors for our Front Office subscribers this week. Generally speaking, even though the Tigers signing Baez and the Yankees (perhaps) sitting out the SS market hurts him, he's just too good and there are just too many teams with the payroll capacity to make it happen.
Maybe he doesn't beat Lindor without Detroit and the Yankees in, but I still think he'll get 300+
Hader
11:42
Given the Phil's shortstop vacancy, will the Phils trade Stott along with other prospects for the Milwaukee closer
Steve Adams
11:44
I think the Phillies signed Knebel (Hader's former late-inning tag team partner) with the expectation he'll close games for them. I don't think they'd trade Stott for a second $10MM+ reliever, no.

I do think it's totally viable that the Brewers will move Hader, though. Two years of control left, salary climbing north of $10MM... value is at its apex, they have Devin Williams, and Hader would fetch some MLB help to bolster the lineup.
Baseball Fan
11:44
Who was your favorite player growing up?
Steve Adams
11:45
I grew up in Minnesota (and now live here once again), so Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Frank Viola and Gary Gaetti come to mind. Later, as I started watching more teams around the league, Griffey, Thome, Randy Johnson
11:46
And for no real good reason, Trot freaking Nixon.
JR
11:46
Is there any reason why Detroit has to be out on Correa necessarily? It's not like Jonathan Schoop is some immovable legend at 2B. Baez to 2B, Correa to SS. They still have payroll room, ostensibly. Tell me why I'm nuts for not crossing the Tigers off the Correa suitors list yet.
Steve Adams
11:48
I don't think you're nuts at all! I covered that in the aforementioned look at Correa's market ... but we just saw the Rangers double dip into the SS market, and the Tigers have the space to do the same. Baez has played 2B and 3B in the past. Schoop isn't a good first baseman, but he's played there and could handle the spot with Cabrera going to a full-time DH. Or you could keep Schoop at 2B, play Javy at 3B and move Candelario to 1B.

They have Torkelson looming, which muddies things a bit, but generally speaking there's no one who should really stand in the way of Correa if they feel the price is a good value.

I don't think it'll happen, to be clear, but I don't think it's insane to suggest it, either.
Kaci
11:49
As much as teams we’re paying for starting pitchers the Reds waiver move looks even more senseless
Steve Adams
11:50
It was just so obviously bad at the time. They can say they tried to trade him and made the waiver move because there were no takers, but that's nonsensical. Just because teams didn't want to commit to giving prospects AND paying $10MM for Miley as a Plan A doesn't mean that they wouldn't have welcomed the opportunity to do that as a Plan B, C or D later in the offseason after they missed out on other targets.
11:52
I feel like that was a pretty clear ownership directive, as they just didn't want to pay the buyout and assumed someone would claim him. The better move was to pick up the option and trade him at a later date. When the "worst-case" scenario is being "stuck" with a $10MM starter who has a 3.53 ERA and 4.10 FIP over his past 425 innings, there's no real downside.
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