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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/12/24
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Steve Adams
8:36
Good morning all! Looking forward to another chat. I'll get started at 1:00 CT, but as always, feel free to drop some questions ahead of time if you like!
1:00
Greetings! Let's get underway
Blue Man Group
1:01
JD Davis to the Brewers. Would something like 3-4 million plus incentives to reach near the amount his salary would’ve been with the Giants get it done?
Steve Adams
1:01
Yeah I think anyone offering Davis something around $4MM + incentives at this point has a decent chance. Brewers are a reasonable enough fit
Cards
1:01
Could a Jordan Walker for Eury Perez trade ever come to fruition?
Steve Adams
1:02
I don't see the Marlins moving Perez, whom they feel can be one of the best pitchers in baseball, for a bat-first prospect like Walker, good as that bat may end up being. If he played shortstop or center field there'd be a better chance of something like this, but particularly after Perez looked so good in his debut last year, no I don't envision that.
Steve Cohen
1:02
Don’t you think the addition of JD Martinez would turn my Mets from a non-contender for the playoffs into a definite contender?
Steve Adams
1:03
I think you're vastly overstating the value of adding a DH -- even a good one like JDM. I don't think that'd make the Mets a definite contender, nor do I think they'll sign him.
Guest
1:03
If Cole and Judge are out to.start the season  an you see them using Beeter and Jones to start season
Steve Adams
1:05
Nah. Jones isn't even on the 40-man. They'd just start Grisham in CF, probably, and could go with a non-roster fourth OF like Greg Allen to make sure Pereira's getting everyday ABs in AAA. Luke Weaver probably makes some starts, if the Yankees stay in house, but it'd surprise me less if they gave early looks to Beeter, Luis Gil or Yoendrys Gomez, since that trio is already on the 40
John
1:05
Are you more surprised that Votto only got a minor league deal or that he actually accepted one?
Steve Adams
1:05
Not particularly surprised at either.
Tigs
1:05
Would you agree that at least 3 teams in American Central have a chance to win the division?
Steve Adams
1:06
I can see any of the Twins, Tigers or Guardians -- yeah. I think I'd list the likelihood in that order. Royals are much improved, but adding Lugo, Wacha, Renfroe, Frazier and a bunch of relievers (plus a full season of Ragans) doesn't lead to a 30-game improvement.
Guest
1:06
If Cole ends up missing significant time, rather than the obvious solution of trying to sign BS or JM, why not pivot to guys like Lorenzen or  Clevenger?
Steve Adams
1:07
Yankees might not consider Lorenzen or Clevinger that much better than what they have in house -- particularly not when signing either one could cost you more than $16-20MM per year after factoring in luxury taxes. If the price drops low enough, sure, but if their asks were going to drop that extent I feel like it'd have happened by now
Guest
1:08
How does Cole’s arm issues effect his opt out decisions?
Steve Adams
1:11
Cole doesn't really have an opt-out decision. The Yankees can overridde the opt-out by picking up a 2030 club option. If Cole needs TJS or something, they probably won't do that, but Cole also wouldn't opt out in that scenario.

If the Yanks say "it's only inflammation," and Cole misses two starts in late March/early April, then comes back to make 30-31 starts, the Yankees probably pick it up -- and he still doesn't really have an opt-out decision himself.
Just going off the cuff without diving too far into this here, I think if there's any injury scare notable enough to keep the Yankees from picking up that 2030 option, it's probably enough that Cole won't take the opt-out either.
Rangers fan
1:12
Leiter for D. Williams to give the Rangers a closer, who says no?
Steve Adams
1:12
Brewers aren't giving up Williams there
Gwynnyrd Skynyrd
1:12
Please no Pham... so Duvall or MAT for my Pads?  Pick one and why.  Thanks for the chat Steve!
Steve Adams
1:13
Between the two, Duvall feels like a better fit. MAT's a better hitter than Azocar, probably (or at least has more power), but they're both speed/glove guys first and foremost.
Nikolai
1:13
do you think snell is a good fit on the angels? even thought they already have two decent lefty's?
Steve Adams
1:14
Handedness isn't a factor here. Snell would be the best pitcher on the Angels by a long shot. You don't pass on Snell because you "already have two lefties."

I have my doubts about whether owner Arte Moreno will break his long-running aversion to long-term deals for pitchers to sign Snell, but I suppose they could do three years with opt-outs
Giant statement
1:14
Given there were no trades out there for JD Davis, does that mean the arbitration decision was actually wrong? Or is he a very underrated player?
Steve Adams
1:16
Arbitration exists in a vacuum outside of the offseason market context. Independent arbitrators ruled that Davis was more statistically similar to comparables presented by his agents than to those by the team, and thus he was awarded the figure his camp submitted.

That doesn't mean no team values Davis at $6.9MM or that the arbitration panel got it wrong. But Davis was only available on waivers/trade to this extent in the very late stages of the offseason when most teams had spent their budgets. If you put JDD on waivers or aggressively shopped him in November, the market for him would be much different.
1:17
The Twins signed Carlos Santana for $5.25MM. The Nats signed Joey Gallo for $5MM. The D-backs signed Randal Grichuk to platoon with Joc Pederson.

Any of those teams might've speculatively had interest in Davis early in the offseason but lacked roster and/or payroll space to accommodate him now.
PHL fever
1:18
The Phils locked up Nola and Wheeler and have gotten a lot of praise.  I contend they should also buy out some discounted arb years of Ranger Suarez - maybe locking him in through 2026 or 2027.  I know they have bad memories of Kingery, but wouldn't this make sense considering how reliable Ranger has been, and how likely it is that they will not break the bank on another FA starter?
Steve Adams
1:19
There's no real parallel between Kingery and Suarez. Kingery was extended before he made his MLB debut. Suarez has four years of MLB service and will be a free agent after the 2025 season. Signing him now isn't at all the same type of move as extending Kingery was.
Negotiator
1:20
Could Davis’ agent initiated arbitration negations before the Giants made an offer?
Steve Adams
1:20
Sure and I'm sure he tried. But teams tend to wait until the eleventh hour -- just not to this extreme.
Ozzy
1:21
Snell is a notoriously slow starter. Is Boras being crazy here, or is he crazy like a fox since Snell is basically going to miss April at this point?
Steve Adams
1:22
I don't think Snell or Monty would "miss April" at this point. They're working out. They have two-plus weeks of camp left. Maybe they need a minor league start or two, but it's not like they're signing on Opening Day (...yet).
Taj Bradley
1:22
Got myself scratched from my start today so I could come say hi
Steve Adams
1:24
Yeah -- ominous for Rays fans that Bradley was scratched and they're not saying why and will "update later." You generally don't hear "He had a stomach bug/back spasms and is day-to-day but we just felt like waiting five hours to announce it."
Rays' pitching is already thin -- an absence for Bradley will sting, even if last year's debut season was uneven at best. Hopefully it's not a notable injury, but it's hard not to wonder a bit.
Rooted in oakland
1:24
is there a world where the A’s don’t trade stripling and Wood
Steve Adams
1:25
Sure. They could both be hurt.
PHL fever
1:25
My question was really about Kingery.  I was hoping for analysis of Ranger Suarez as an early extension candidate?
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