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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 7/5/22
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Steve Adams
11:56
Greetings all -- chatting a bit early today. You can start asking questions anytime, and I'll get rolling in a couple minutes or so.
Perry Minasian
12:00
Do I survive this year with the Angels postseason drought continuing?
Steve Adams
12:01
He's signed through 2024 and only in his second full season. Eppler lasted five years. Dipoto was at four-plus when he walked away.
So, yeah, I expect him to stick around at least through 2023.
GM
12:02
Does Trea Turner go to Phillies in free agency? 8 years, $280 million?
Steve Adams
12:03
No one can credibly say with any confidence right now where a given free agent will sign. But I think the Phillies should've been in on the marquee shortstops this winter, will probably be in that market this coming offseason, and the contract terms you set out are generally in the ballpark. It's plausible to me
steve
12:03
Are the Twins really for real?  They play in a god awful division
Steve Adams
12:05
I'd be more inclined to believe them as postseason threats if they had more than two good relievers and had a less patchy rotation. That said, I fully expect them to acquire bullpen and rotation help alike prior to the deadline, and a lineup with Arraez, Buxton, Correa and a bunch of average to above-average bats behind them is pretty solid.
Playing in the weak Central helps though, yes, and 46-37 in the AL Central isn't the same as posting that same record in the AL East, for instance.
Pirates
12:06
Pirates trade Bednar for Mahle + a prospect (Torres?) and sign him to an extension. Realistic for the Pirates?
Steve Adams
12:07
If the Bucs trade Bednar it's going to be for controllable prospects who won't be arb-eligible for years -- not for a veteran starter who currently has 1.5 years of control. Similarly, the Reds aren't moving Mahle for a reliever -- even a very good one who has 4 years remaining after the current season. I don't think it's realistic for either team.
Ty
12:08
If the O’s end up dealing one of Mullins or Hays, who do you think goes and what would their return be?
Steve Adams
12:09
I don't expect either to go, but the return would be pretty hefty -- probably a headliner of some 50 FV prospect that's on the cusp of MLB readiness plus several other mid-level pieces from a system. They're both controlled three more years after the current season, so the return would have to be large. That control's also why I don't expect either to go, though.
GM
12:10
Do we see Willson Contreras in an Astros or Rays uni post deadline?
Steve Adams
12:11
Am I picking solely between those teams? If so, Rays I guess. Astros love Maldonado, though my thoughts on that are well known after the past couple weeks haha. Astros should be all over Contreras, but I don't expect them to be. Rays have a big need behind the plate as well, though.
Todd
12:12
Assuming Scherzer and deGrom stay healthy(a big assumption) do the Mets hold off the Braves for the division title?
Steve Adams
12:13
If they keep Max and deGrom healthy down the stretch, I'm not betting against them. I don't know that I'd bet against them even if you told me deGrom didn't return until the end of August, honestly. They have a 3.5 game lead as-is, which is notable, and the Mets are absolutely going to go out and get better at the deadline. The Braves will, too, but I think the Mets are likelier to make a more dramatic move than Atlanta is.
Reds fan
12:14
Which is more likely, a tree of Castillo for prospects for a trade a Castillo with moose to get rid of his contract
Steve Adams
12:15
It can be both, can't it? They can shed some of the Moose deal and still get prospect value. They showed that with the Winker/Suarez trade, still pulling Brandon Williamson in return.

I don't think it's advisable and would much rather see Castillo traded for the best package of talent possible, rather than using him as leverage to trim some dollars off the payroll.
Willy Contreras
12:16
I’m getting traded soon, aren’t I?
Steve Adams
12:16
The deadline is less than a month away, so yes. (Unless you meant William, and not Willson -- in which case, no, ha)
John Mozeliak
12:18
what is a realistic move (or two) I can make before the deadline? We’ve got the top 3 players in NL WAR but seemingly need tons of help in the rotation.. what do I do?
Steve Adams
12:23
(Mozeliak is the Cardinals' president of bb ops)

Also a stacked defense, too, which probably lessens the urgency to make a more dramatic splash in the rotation. They were able to coax great innings out of J.A. Happ and Jon Lester in their final gasps last season. There's so much focus on Frankie Montas from Cardinals fans every week in these chats, but that sort of move (generally speaking) hasn't been the front office's first choice. Lots of decent rental arms out there: Martin Perez, Chad Kuhl, Michael Pineda, Jose Quintana, to name a few. I could see the Padres moving Clevinger (or Snell) even though they're contending; need to make some luxury space for other pursuits.

Just because they've operated a certain way in the past doesn't guarantee they'll continue in the future, but I'm not expecting the Cards to land Castillo or Montas, myself.
David
12:23
Did the A’s wait a week too long on montas? Still tradable? Do you think his value if affected?
Steve Adams
12:25
We'll see what comes of his weekend departure and whether they make an IL move. If he comes back out in a few days and the velo is back/he's looking like himself, I doubt the blip matters much.

As for whether they waited too long ... I was surprised they didn't trade him this winter. I understand they didn't want to just take the best deal presented and wanted someone to meet the price they set, but there's a good bit of risk involved in the approach.
John
12:26
Who wins AL ROY - Julio, Pena or the field?
Steve Adams
12:26
American League Rookie of the Year?
Julio Rodriguez (72% | 345 votes)
 
Jeremy Pena (15.2% | 73 votes)
 
Someone else (12.7% | 61 votes)
 
Total Votes: 479
12:27
Some early disrespect to Pena! (I agree Julio is in the lead, but Pena has been great)
Ray
12:28
Do you think the Rangers should trade Perez?
Steve Adams
12:30
I tend to think so, yeah. If he'll sign some ultra-friendly two-year deal because he's with his original organization, I guess you consider that. But there's no demonstrable change in his velocity or pitch selection and a huge driver behind his success is a minuscule 4.4% homer-to-flyball ratio that just isn't sustainable.
12:31
If you can get even one solid prospect for him, I'd make the trade. Nothing says you can't revisit signing him in the offseason. It's not like he felt the bridge was burned the first time he left the organization, clearly.
Steve
12:32
Is Ian Happs value similar to what Joey Gallo got last year?
Steve Adams
12:34
I think Gallo had more value. He was seen as an elite defender and power hitter. Happ has had a nice season and a nice second half in 2021 as well, but he doesn't have the same track record and same plus-plus elements of his game that Gallo had.

Happ keeps hitting, and he's not only sustained the improved K% that I was skeptical of earlier in the season -- he's built on it and continued to pare it back. His value's probably higher than I gave him credit for last time I was asked about it, but I still think the general perception around Gallo was stronger.
Trent
12:35
Who are some good targets for the Rangers to trade for? Reynolds, Bieber, Mullins, outsider…Alcantara
Steve Adams
12:38
Well, there's no way the Marlins move Sandy Alcantara. I'd be skeptical about the chances of Bieber moving, too. Generally, however, yeah -- guys with multiple years of club control remaining make sense for the Rangers, even if they simultaneously sell short-term pieces like Perez.

Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins/Austin Hays, Pablo Lopez, Paul Blackburn (if you believe in his current breakout) -- guys along those lines. You could lump Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo in there, too, but for a team in the Rangers' spot, I'd be wary of giving up too much long-term talent for a guy only controlled through '23.
griff
12:39
gurriel jr. and jansen for quantrill and kwan: does this make sense for both teams?
Steve Adams
12:41
I guess I can see how you'd get there on paper, but that scenario has Cleveland taking on the more expensive players, which I'm always wary of. The dollars aren't huge, of course, but that trade probably tacks on another $10MM or so to the Guards' 2023 payroll, and when you're talking about a team that is currently running a payroll under $70MM, that's not nothing.
Buccos
12:42
Do you think if would be wise for the pirates to buy a guy like Hosmer or Myers at the deadline. Take on the contract and get some prospects in return. They do have a need at first base
Steve Adams
12:44
Wise? Sure. I think they could probably get a decent prospect by just taking Myers off the Padres' hands and letting him walk at season's end.

Would they actually do it, though? Probably not. That same opportunity was just as present in the offseason (perhaps even more so), and the Pirates didn't do it. It's a tough sell to a small-market owner who is generally reluctant to spend money to say, "Hey if we take on an eight-figure sum we can buy another prospect."

It's not Ben Cherington's money, and he'd probably welcome the opportunity if ownership told him to go for it, but that's tough for me to envision.
Erik Swanson
12:45
Does MLB know that I’m a stud closer in waiting?   Do I leave Seattle via trade soon?
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