You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/27/22
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
11:02
Greetings all! Should have an hour or so today on what'll be the second-to-last chat of the regular season! (Though we'll of course run chats through the playoffs and all offseason ... so not sure what the point in distinguishing was, ha).

Let's get started!!
Josh
11:02
Can you see the Twins signing Carlos Rodon this offseason?
Steve Adams
11:05
I can see them being in that mix, yes. And while them signing a deGrom or Verlander is more far-fetched since they're older free agents (Verlander especially) who'll prioritize clear-cut contenders, Rodon is younger, has an injury history and will be looking to max out with the highest bidder.

The Twins were on Rodon in each of the past two offseasons. He'd require the largest contract they've ever given to a pitcher, but the Twins were willing to offer $100MM+ to Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler in free agency, so it's not like they've never shown the ability to swim in these waters before.
Duffy Scliff
11:05
Where will Wilson Contreras be playing in 2023? Could he get a QO?
Steve Adams
11:08
It's not a matter of "could" he get a QO. He'll get one, and he'll reject it. The question of where he'll go is tougher. It seems like the ship has sailed on a long-term deal with the Cubs by now... the Angels, Rockies, Guardians, Tigers, Twins and Marlins are among the teams that could use help behind the plate.
Jesse
11:09
What are the chances Taijuan Walker accepts a QO? What do you think the likelihood is that the Mets are able to retain 3 or more of their other probable QO recipients (deGrom, Diaz, Nimmo, Bassit)?
Steve Adams
11:11
Walker's never made 30 starts, has been more good than great in Queens and has one of the worst strikeout rates of his career this season. He wouldn't come close to the $19MMish AAV in free agency, so it'd be a question of whether he preferred that or the security of a three-year deal -- maybe something in the Anthony DeSclafani range (3/36). I think he'd have to consider accepting, and I don't expect the Mets to offer one. after Walker declines his player option.
O's For Days
11:11
Where is Jose Abreu going next year?
Steve Adams
11:12
He's been vocal about his desire to spend his entire career with the White Sox. I tend to take the field when it comes to predicting whether a free agent will remain with his own team, but with a player like Abreu I do think it's likeliest he stays put.
(Of course, I said similar things about Freeman a year ago and he burned me!)
Michael Conforto
11:12
Marlins offer three years and 37 million, should I accept?
Steve Adams
11:14
I think whatever deal Conforto signs this winter will give him the opportunity to reenter free agency quickly -- be that a one-year deal or a multi-year deal with an opt-out. I don't think Miami would take the chance on offering another multi-year deal to a corner outfielder... not with Avi and Soler already looking regrettable. (That Garcia contract was just rough from the outset, in my view)
Aaron Judges next team
11:14
Just in case in the event that NYY are not able to convince Judge to resign who would be you top pick for his new club?
Steve Adams
11:17
The Giants are the popular pick because Judge is a Northern California native, the Giants pursued Harper in free agency, they have the money and the 2022 season was pretty disappointing.

I can see plenty of sense there, but I also think (cue the eye rolls) that AJ Preller's quest to pursue every marquee name that hits free agency or the trade market would make things interesting. For all the big moves, the Padres "only" have about $127MM on the books next year. Signing Judge would for sure make them three-time luxury offenders, but their farm is pretty stripped down after the Soto trade... so if they want to add another big-ticket item, free agency is the way to go. Soto and Judge in the corners would be something.
11:18
That's just speculative, of course, and you can bet there'll be interest from a wide number of teams. Rangers, Giants, Padres, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs... there'll be dark-horse teams on the periphery, too. Judge's free agency is going to be bonkers and going to be fun.
2022 FA Class Fan
11:19
Edwin Diaz is putting forth a season that seems to line him up for a ~$20M AAV contract. Do you see teams jumping up to give him that money, given how inconsistent relievers can be (See: Diaz's brutal 2019 and fine 2021)? Do you see him making a contract of that nature worthwhile?
Steve Adams
11:21
I don't think teams will be "jumping" to give him $20MM per year / $100MM total, but I do think the bidding will get to that point and one team will kind of plug its nose and make the offer/take the risk. We're talking a new record for a reliever by a measure of like $15MM, but Diaz has been that good.
Kimbrel
11:21
Where do I go from here? Will I get anything more than a one-year deal?
Steve Adams
11:22
There'll be plenty of teams willing to try to fix him. I do think a one-year deal is likely -- probably at a pretty decent price point.
KS Rangers
11:22
Could a Pablo Lopez or another pitching trade target be on Texas' radar if a big name FA doesn't sign?
Steve Adams
11:23
The Rangers are going to be in heavily on the SP trade and free agent markets this winter. Yes, Lopez would be someone they're interested in, but that'll be true of like 15 other teams as well.
Buccos
11:23
Do you think Miguel Andujar fits into the Pirates plans in 2023?
Steve Adams
11:25
Their roster is still fairly wide open, and Andujar can play a combination of 1B/3B/LF/DH for them. Pretty easy to fit him into the mix. Hope they just give him 500+ PAs and see if he can justify the everyday (or near everyday) role. Andujar was a a good player in his rookie season, and I understand the circumstances that led to him getting squeezed out with the Yankees, but I've always been curious how he'd do with another chance at a prominent role. I was surprised the Nationals, of all teams, opted not to claim him.
Arte Moreno
11:26
Am I the worst owner in all of baseball?
Steve Adams
11:28
Moreno is the most hands-on owner in baseball, but I bet a lot of small-market teams would be happy to have an owner who's willing to run payroll up to where the Angels generally reside, even if it comes with the meddling.

I think it's a fair question and I understand the frustration from Angels fans, but there's a definite "grass is always greener" vibe here.
Mr. Dylan Cease
11:28
I've had a pretty good year, but I should resign myself to a 2nd place finish in the CYA, shouldn't I?
Steve Adams
11:30
He's made it quite close -- close enough where if he has a pair of dominant starts and the other candidates kind of faceplant in their final outings, he'll have a real chance. I'm selfishly hoping for him to win because he was my preseason pick, ha.
steve
11:31
Why does Rocco Baldelli and the front office still have a job and lets not blame injuries, everybody has injuries
Steve Adams
11:34
Everyone has injuries, yes, but the Twins have more injuries this year than nearly any team in MLB:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/

I don't think that gives everyone a free pass, though. The front office seemed to make it a strategy to bank on pitchers who wouldn't go deep into games (Bundy, Archer, Ober) and paired that with a thin bullpen that they generally ignored. I think the current Twins regime is very confident in its ability to find marginal names it can convert into meaningful relievers despite the fact that their track record of success in that regard is decidedly poor. The Twins don't spend on relief pitching, and while it's one thing to say "We're not giving Raisel Iglesias $58MM" -- plenty defensible -- it's another to routinely eschew any meaningful commitments in the 'pen.
11:36
Addison Reed is the only multi-year reliever this front office has signed. The bullpen looked poor coming into the season, and even with Jhoan Duran and (to a much lesser extent) Griffin Jax breaking out, that's still the case moving forward.

The Pohlad family (who own the Twins) have generally been quite loyal, but we're six years into this Twins front office regime and the results are underwhelming, at best.
John Kreese
11:37
Which pitcher would bring back a bigger haul if traded this Winter, Bieber or Burnes?
Steve Adams
11:39
Burnes, pretty comfortably. No knock on Bieber, who's a damn good pitcher in his own right, but he's had some velocity loss and doesn't have the raw power arsenal of Burnes. Bieber has the better ERA, and Burnes has faltered down the stretch in Milwaukee, but he's still more in demand this winter I think (assuming both are healthy)
Mike
11:40
Keller, Contreras, Ortiz, Burrows, Priester… If the Pirates as a FA SP, do they have the talent and SP depth (Oviedo, Brubaker, Bolton) to sneak up on the Cards and Brewers next year?
Steve Adams
11:43
No, I don't think so. I'm big on Keller since he added the sinker, I like Contreras, and Ortiz is one of the most quietly interesting arms in MLB right now. But the Pirates can't bank on all those arms to stay healthy, and some will probably regress/stall in development, too. They also need more bullpen help and don't have anything immediate at catcher or really in the outfield corners.

Once 2024 rolls around, maybe, but I think their best-case scenario in '23 is an 2022 Orioles-esque run, and they'd need SO much to break right for even that to play out.
Guest
11:43
how much of a bargain is the Castillo deal?were you surprised?
Steve Adams
11:45
It's lighter than I expected, so I was moderately surprised. But it's still nine figures for a guy who's had some shoulder issues, so kudos to him. We talk a lot about how "this deal is light" and "this opt-out decision is easy" etc. etc., but it's always hard to really fault a guy for taking the life-changing bag of cash. Doesn't hurt that he's looking at a long-term future with Julio, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, etc. ... you have to love the long-term outlook if you're a Mariner (or a Mariners fan) right now
Bill
11:45
Has Cal Raleigh's season flown under the radar? A 4-WAR season thus far and he seems to be ascending still...
Steve Adams
11:46
Definitely -- he doesn't seem like he's going to get on base a ton but if he's a better version of peak Mike Zunino that's a really good player.
Camden Chat
11:47
Henderson early front runner for 2023 AL ROTY?
Steve Adams
11:47
Yeah he's my pick, assuming the O's keep his rookie eligibility intact. He looks great
Load More Messages
Connecting…