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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/25/16
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Sirras
11:59
Presidential brawl?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:00
ARRGGH, someone's gotta remind me before we start chat! lol
Sirras
12:00
If you're the Mets, how concerned are you with Harvey?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:00
Somewhere between mild and moderate.
Michael
12:01
Drew Smyly: what kind of stats does he end the year with?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:01
3.20ish ERA?
Sirras
12:01
What is your favorite small sample size stat right now?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:02
All of Aledmys Diaz's stats, which would make him a strong MVP contender if the season ended today.
Tracey
12:03
Looks like neither Jepsen or May want the Twins' closing gig. Anybody else out there that might swoop in?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:03
Doubt anyone's really good enough to sweep in for a mediocre team that will eventually have Perkins back (eventually)
12:04
I mean really, who is there best non-Perkins reliever? MAYBE Abad slightly over the two others?
Jamie
12:04
Assuming the Marlins are out of it in September, what would it take to get Bonds a handful of ABs when rosters expand? Seems like a win win. Bonds restarts the HoF clock and the Marlins would garner some much needed attention
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:04
It would certanly be fun
Scott
12:04
Are you optimistic Matt Moore can maintain anything close to his current BB% and K%?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:05
A little more htan I was. Those kinds of stats tend to stabilize more quickly
Scott
12:05
Dan, have you gotten a chance to watch Sean Rodriguez at all? I know it's only April, but it looks like he may have changed something to his swing. Maybe more of a leg kick?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:06
I think I've only seen him in 3 or 4 games and I haven't been specifically looking at his swing, so I don't really have anything useful here.
Ernie Camacho
12:06
Hi Dan! Does ZiPS take into account the projected defense of the specific players it expects to play behind a pitcher when projecting his ERA? Or does it involve a more generic look at the team's defense (e.g., based on prior three seasons, regardless of roster turnover)?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:06
It's fairly generic (recent past roster plus regression) otherwise I'd have to re-run all the pitching projections every time the depth chart changes a little.
Six Ten
12:06
Is Mike Moustakas actually a great hitter now? Batted ball speed up across the board, pulling hard with no strikes and going opposite way a lot with two. Or is it just sample size?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:07
I don't use the word great lightly, but he is hitting the crap out of the ball.
Justin
12:07
Are you more bullish on Pomeranz or Matt Moore rest of season?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:08
Health was the big question for Moore and as long as he's healthy, I'll prefer him
Little Leaguer
12:08
Thoughts on Kendall Graveman so far this season and going forward?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:08
Good ERA, but he's realistically a 3/4 guy at best.
Brian
12:09
To what extent do you believe in Grichuk's improve plate discipline? Strikeout rate is down ~5% and walk rate has doubled from ~6% last year to ~13% this year.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:09
Fairly optimistic - *approach* numbers tend to be quite stable.
Scott
12:10
What do you think about Roberto Osuna? Do you think he could be an elite closer someday?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:10
I think he's not that far *now*
JJ
12:11
Votto's Pull % is 49%!! His career average is 35%. We all know he's not a pull hitter - whats going on here?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:11
I wouldn't read too much into that yet.
12:12
He had a 25% month and a 45% month last year.
Dan
12:12
Do you do fantasy questions? I need to drop 1 in a 10 team roto. out of Gauzman, Pomeranz or Kazmir.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:13
Only if they tend to be widely applicable to a larger audience. I very rarely answer the specific "keep x out of y players?" questions because they're really only interesting to the readers that have their y players be exactly a, b, c, and d.
12:14
But in this casue, probably Gausman.
There's uncertainy there.
Shawn
12:14
Tanner Roark - just an incredible day bc baseball, or did he suddenly become very interesting going forward?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:14
He's had pretty good moments before.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:14
What is your take on MLB webcasted games' pitch location? I feel like it's so far off, so much, that it's completely unreliable - ball calls are showing up belt high, middle of the plate with fair regularity. Does MLB use something other than pitch fx data for what they display on their webcasted games?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:14
Someone would really have to study the issue to give a better answer.
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