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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/17
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AvatarDan Szymborski
1:59
Party status:  Started hot.
The Average Sports Fan
2:00
Will the Twins be able to hold on for the 2nd wildcard?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:00
It's getting closer - two games is significant with this amount of time remaining.
2:01
It's enough that it makes them vs. the field a coin flip or so.
Brad
2:01
will you do a hitting and pitching projection for Ohtani?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:01
Yes.
CamdenWarehouse
2:01
Jotcast says this is going to start at 2:00 EST.  Twitter says 2:00 EDT. Why does jotcast think we're in standard time???
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:01
Maybe it believes farmers are the standard?
Keith Hernandez
2:01
I don't have a question.  I just want to say that as a baseball fan, I get so much pure enjoyment out of watching this Indians pitching staff pitch on a nightly basis.  Basically every starter has become a must see for me.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:01
CHEATING
Slapshot
2:01
For the Fangraphs audience who missed the Twitter fun, can you remind everyone the correct way to make chili?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:02
Beef.  Chili.  Salt and spices.
Any liquid you add must be beef broth since it's beef, spices, and water.
If you add beans, throw it in the garbage disposal because you've ruined your chili.
Duhbear
2:03
The Rays are trying to bring up McKay to be exactly what Ohtani already is. Does that give them any sort of bargaining power or is Ohtani on such a different level that every team would bend over backwards to accommodate him?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:03
Yeah, that doesn't work.
Moltar
2:04
So Dave couldn't answer this, but do you know what teams actually have the bonus pool to sign Ohtani to a max deal? Supposing that he cared about maximizing his bonus over all else, what teams are best positioned to sign him?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:04
I don't actually know, I haven't accumulated the data - it's awkwardly available
Harold
2:04
Is Willie Calhoun a fantasy playoff asset or more of a stash for next season type of player? What kind of numbers do you think he could put up playing FT in 2018?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:04
I think of him more as a stash right now, unless you get him qualified at 2nd.
2:05
As for 2018 numbers, cheating to ask for projection early!
Wild card
2:05
How many wins will the second AL wild card team have? Who will it be?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:05
Probably the team that wins 85 gets the wild card
Twins the favorite
Bryson Beery
2:05
What does this streak mean for the indians post-season, will they stay hot? or cool off once the streak ends?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:05
Hot or not has no predictive value for the postseason, so nothing.
Harold
2:07
Chris Archer is breaking my heart. I've counted on him all season but the forearm scare isn't going away. Should the Rays consider shutting him down? Should I consider moving on as a fantasy player to someone like Lamet?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:08
I don't think the Rays are there yet and there's nothing new on his tightness other than the precautionary pull.  Yeah, the Red Sox start wasn't good, but his velocity was still fine.  I'd knock him down a notch, but I woudn't jump off the bandwagon
Hypothetical
2:08
Say you had a reliever who was guaranteed to give up exactly one run per inning. So an ERA of 9. How valuable would he be, considering it is a guaranteed win whenever you are up 2 in the 9th, up 3 in the 8th, etc.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:08
Very valuable, in the weird world where that exists.
OC
2:09
Curious what you (or zips) makes of minor league IFFB%. While I love willie calhoun's hitting profile (low Ks + good power), he's run a 30+% IFFB in the minors. Since IFFB are very similar results-wise to strikeouts, it seems the bat won't play as well as I'd hope. Do minor league IFFB rates correlate with major league IFFB rates, and should we expect Calhoun to improve on that number?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:09
I've found minor league hit data a litlte weaker in correlation than MLB stuff.
It's noisy data, but it's at least slightly useful.
Off season
2:09
How should teams think about selling in the off season, considering a team like the Twins going worst to playoffs. They held onto Dozier when many said they should take the best offer, and he's leading them to the playoffs. Lessons for other "non contenders" in the off season?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:09
No.
2:10
If the Twins getting a wild card is a lesson, then why would Royals, Rays, Orioles, etc. not be?
mike
2:10
CLE 12 outs away from 21 straight !
flanders
2:11
Something I've been really curious but I'm not sure how to look it up. What's the largest gap between a player making their ML debut and losing their rookie eligibility?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:11
I'm not sure if it shoudl count, but Paul Schreiber should count.
Bob Villar
2:12
How does ZiPS like Albies for the future?
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