JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Dave Cameron

12:35

It's the cable companies who are the ones requiring blackouts to drive up subscription rates, not the owners. You could argue the owners are being shortsighted in making those deals, but the money is so large that it's probably tough to turn those offers down.

Erik

12:36

To understand better why Kershaw isn't on the trade value list: am I right in understanding that even though the dodgers wouldn't move him for anyone other than maybe the top 2 or 3, no team would offer any of the players on the list, due to his opt out? So in a way he's both about 5th and about 205th, meaning it was easier to leave him off entirely?

Dave Cameron

12:37

Well, I think the Dodgers would move him for some of the guys in the very top tier, but yes, he's insanely valuable to LA, but far less so to any other team, because of the right to void the contract. The gap between what he's worth in a trade and what he's worth to LA makes a trade basically untenable for both sides; Kershaw would be the only winner in that deal, since he'd get to free agency earlier.

Daniel

12:37

Do GMs pester one another and bother one another about a player? Would someone continue to ask for Benintendi to try and wear Dombrowski down?

Dave Cameron

12:37

That's how Anthopolous got Josh Donaldson.

The Man

12:38

Is Odor really that much better/different than Schoop?

Dave Cameron

12:38

He's two years younger, which matters a lot at those ages.

Erik

12:39

Where would Kershaw rank on the list without his opt out clause?

Dave Cameron

12:40

Without the opt-out if traded? Probably in the top 10, as he still has an opt-out even from LA's contract after 2018, so he's got the same remaining control as Harper/Machado/Donaldson/Fernandez. But if he didn't have that opt-out either, and was locked in through the rest of the deal? Up near Trout and the elite young shortstops.

alfred pennypacker

12:41

I was surprised to see Salvador Perez on your trade value article day 1. Team friendly contract at the quarterback position of baseball position, and already has 2 WS appearances. He's on his way to becoming the next Molina / Posey in that regard (key cogs of championship teams). Mike Trout controls Mike Trout. Salvador Perez controls half the team, not to mention every game. Are there really 43 other players that would command more than him in a trade? He's the guy, if i'm a GM, that i'm building around with my 1st pick.

Dave Cameron

12:41

Baseball is not football. Catchers do not have the same impact as a quarterback.

Jake

12:42

It seems like Piscotty is going to miss the trade value list / honorable mentions. What caused him to come up short?

Dave Cameron

12:42

He was in the honorable mentions.

Alex

12:42

Who has more value, Miller or Betances?

Dave Cameron

12:42

Betances.

M.O.

12:42

Clark and Manfred's comments were depressing. Any idea if there's fair wages on the horizon?

Dave Cameron

12:43

Manfred represents the owners, Clark represents MLB players. Neither of them represent the interests of minor league players. We shouldn't really expect them to stick up for people they aren't responsible for. We can want them to, and believe they should, but that's not what their employers are paying them to do.

Jim

12:44

If you had to guess where Encarnacion and Bautista play opening day 2017, where for each?

Dave Cameron

12:45

Guessing Bautista will end up realizing he isn't getting a long-term deal, and takes three years to re-sign in Toronto. Encarnacion goes to, I don't know, maybe Texas?

Naquinto Hotels

12:45

Is the MiLB labor issue just owners being cheapskates? There are so many reasons to pay their MiLB players--morally, it is the right thing to do; players not worried about money can focus on improving; more money = better health, better eating, etc. This seems like a 'market inefficiency' some enterprising team should take up.

Dave Cameron

12:46

It will eventually happen. Mark Cuban dragged the NBA owners into the 21st century when he bought the Mavericks. Some team will eventually make a move on this, and everyone will follow.

Joel

12:46

Are you higher on the Orioles or Blue Jays in the 2nd half?

Dave Cameron

12:46

Blue Jays.

Drew

12:46

Will there be a prospect list midseason update this year? Kileys from last year was top-notch

Dave Cameron

12:48

Eric did mostly draft/amateur stuff at ESPN this spring, so he doesn't feel like he's laid the necessary groundwork to put out a list he'd feel comfortable with, so not this year. But he's going to get our team lists out a lot earlier this year, so we're not that far off from having updated rankings here on FG.

Kevin

12:50

Is it just confirmation bias, or does it seem that there has been a massive increase amount of players suddenly making radical improvements (i.e. Pomeranz, Hill, Murphy, Shoemaker, Lamb, etc.)? Are teams getting better at implementing mechanical adjustments?

Dave Cameron

12:51

I do think teams are getting better at development. I think we're going to enter an age where player acquisition is emphasized less than it has been, and player development is emphasized more.

hscer

12:51

I'm sure this is just an academic question, but what would be the effect of moving free agency up a year, whether by removing one arbitration year or one pre-arb year?

Dave Cameron

12:52

You'd essentially be making things easier for high-revenue teams at the expense of low-revenue teams. The ROI on scouting/player development would go down, and teams with big MLB payrolls could buy more productive years in free agency.

On the plus side, more pitchers would get paid before their arms exploded.

Rick

12:53

Which player gave you the most difficulty in assigning a trade-value ranking (whether because of injury concerns, a high upside/high risk combination, or other issues)?

Dave Cameron

12:53

Gerrit Cole. Just really hard to pin down what a guy on the DL with an arm problem is worth.

Zonk

12:54

Given that he is still in pre-Arb, and Trout is getting expensive, I wonder if Kris Bryant isn't your #1 this year....

Dave Cameron

12:54

He's in the mix. I will say that this is, by far, the most difficult year to pick the top spot. There are a bunch of strong contenders. This isn't Trout in a runaway anymore.

12:55

Kyle Seager just completed the best half-season of his career. I know he's too old and expensive to get serious consideration for the top-50 spots on the trade value list, but do you think he's close? I'd think teams would give up a fair amount of value for a 28-y/o proven 4-win player in the middle of a power spike that's got him on pace for a 6-win season, even with his $19 million salary kicking in soon.

Dave Cameron

12:56

Yeah, I could have mentioned him in the honorable mentions; he's clearly worth a good amount, given his overall value. But he's also pretty clearly behind guys like Belt/Crawford, I think, and I couldn't list every good player in the game.

dancing dan mcgrrrraw

12:56

Fernendez for Beintindi and Moncada

Dave Cameron

12:56

I don't think Boston does that, even as aggressive as Dombrowski is. One of the two and some other stuff, but not both.

Scott

12:56

Your alma mater has exploded. Nothing is safe from the sprawl of UNCG. I'm just waiting for them to buy out Beef Burger.

Dave Cameron

12:57

That's why I'm moving to Oregon...