JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Dave Cameron

12:03

Happy Wednesday, everyone. We're a few days away from the trade deadline, so I imagine most of the questions will revolve around whether we'll see any interesting deals in the next few days.

Guest

12:03

Do the giants still make a bullpen move in your view in light of rising prices for relievers?

Dave Cameron

12:04

Yep. I don't know that they'll land a closer, necessarily, but I think they'll get someone. Maybe Will Smith?

12:04

So do Nats need a RP? Good case that Shawn Kelly should be better used, and maybe Reynaldo moved to the pen for the rest of the year. Outside of that, worth raiding the farm?

Dave Cameron

12:05

I think trusting Baker to use Kelley/Lopez correctly is probably too much to ask. So if they can get another good arm at a reasonable price, it's worth doing. I can see why they didn't think the price for Chapman was reasonable, though.

CamdenWarehouse

12:05

Javy Baez is outhitting Montero, Russell and Heyward, but usually is hitting behind them when he plays. Any idea on Maddon's thought process there?

Dave Cameron

12:05

You don't decide batting order based on in-season lines?

Houzer

12:06

Do you think the Tigers could get Moore for Boyd + a low prospect piece? Would be nice to see them heading into next season with a more established, high upside arm

Dave Cameron

12:06

Well Matt Moore isn't very good.

Bernie

12:06

Do you think that Gallo coming up now is somewhat of a tell that the Rangers don't think they have any deals line up to make with him? Curious timing.

Dave Cameron

12:06

Yes. I don't think you promote him only to trade him a few days later. I think it's a sign they're out on Sale.

12:07

Will Oakland get less of a haul from Rich Hill if his blister doesn't heal and he doesn't make one final start before the deadline?

Dave Cameron

12:07

Yes.

At this point, it's very hard to give up a serious return for him if he can't pitch.

Bernie

12:07

White Sox have to be tempted to move Sale for Urias+, right? Urias has more value than a Moncada or Giolito no?

Dave Cameron

12:08

I'd rather have Moncada than Urias, but yes, he's ahead of Giolito. If I'm the White Sox, I'm probably not trading Sale for a package built around an arm, just because arms break so often. I know Urias could be special, but I'd prefer a bat-first package.

Dweep

12:08

In retrospect, the Wade Miley trade was dismal for the Mariners, right? Giving up a controllable asset like Elias, who probably would have garnered the same results, and a big pen piece like Smith, who had been dominating in his most recent stint as setup guy. Wade Miley is crap.

Dave Cameron

12:09

Elias is a Triple-A player and Smith blew out his elbow. Maybe pick a different deal to get upset about?

Michael

12:09

Starting to get the sense Reddick won't get moved?

Dave Cameron

12:09

No, I think he's gone.

TP for my Jung Ho

12:09

Re: reliever valuation, has there been any attempt to differentiate statistics for closers in save vs non-save situations? It seems to me, that with high-end closers, that when they're brought in just to get an inning of work in a non-save situation, they are far more likely to give up a run. With the limited body of work, that can really skew the data in a hurry.

Dave Cameron

12:09

That's been mostly debunked.

Bernie

12:10

David Robertson isn't worth the $25mm left on his deal after 2016, but would someone still take that deal on waivers? Given relief market?

Dave Cameron

12:10

Yes, he'd get claimed. And I bet he gets traded before Monday.

Alex

12:11

What moves if any, do you see the Dodgers making at the deadline?

Dave Cameron

12:11

With Ethier's return looking more questionable, I'd bet they'll get an outfielder. And some pitching, whether SP or RP.

Joe

12:12

Do you find the White Sox decision to sell a little weird? After spending the off-season going all-in this year, they're right at their preseason projection (50-50). Did they actually misjudge their potential by that much?

Dave Cameron

12:12

Not really. They pushed in hoping things would go right, and they haven't.

Ed in Iowa

12:12

I read what you and August each wrote about it and listened to this week’s chat (you were pretty snarky to Carson about the reed grass), so I guess I kind of know what you think. But upon seeing what the Cubs gave for Chapman I began to wonder whether they (and perhaps other front offices) have done some whiz bang analysis of win probability added in 100,000 or so simulated playoff games and convinced themselves that 10-15 innings of Chapman, plus the slotting down of the other relievers is just WAY more valuable than we realize. Do you suppose that’s possible?

Dave Cameron

12:14

I'm sure they've done that kind of analysis. I don't think it's likely that the analysis suggests that relievers are as valuable as starting pitchers, and the Cubs gave up a package of talent that puts Chapman's value at ace-starter levels.

The Cubs gave up more for Chapman than the Royals gave up for Cueto a year ago, for instance.

Ed in Iowa

12:14

Does Carson tell you ahead of time what you will be talking about? Or conversely, do you tell him what you want to talk about?

Dave Cameron

12:15

Nope. I otherwise would have prepared for our conversation about weeds this week.

Gary

12:15

Can the Braves win around 80 games next year? Swanson/Albies will be up, $60 million to spend this offseason on the offense in FA and trades, plus Folty coming on?

Dave Cameron

12:16

Can they? Sure, anything can happen. But this is a ~65 win team right now. Asking for a 15 win true talent bump is probably unrealistic.

Sean P

12:16

Has the Cubs preference to include Torres, Warren, and McKinney in a trade instead of Schwarber made you rethink Schwarber's value/upside? Given the history of player development with Epstein, Hoyer, McCloud, etc., I would wonder if one of the better front offices in the game making such a decision has had any influence over your opinion on Schwarber.

Dave Cameron

12:18

I don't think appeals to authority qualify as good analysis.

Thomas

12:18

Carson knows that "practical analytics" is just economics, right?

Dave Cameron

12:19

I'm going to buy him Richard Thaler's book at some point.

Jaack

12:20

What is your hottest take on the Benoit-Storen swap?