JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Andrew

12:22

Given all the reliever-mania this October, I've seen one or two writers suggest the Mets go after Jansen to pair with Familia and Reed. What do you think about that idea?

Dave Cameron

12:23

It didn't work for the Yankees.

ColoradoDude

12:23

If the Rockies can trade Cargo for salary relief, should they enter the closer sweepstakes? Bid for EE? Build depth? They've got a bunch of money coming off books in coming years.

Dave Cameron

12:24

I continue to not see a team all that close to contending in the NL West, so why the Rockies seem to be still pushing in on winning now is beyond me.

Adge

12:25

assuming EE/Jose are leaving Toronto, who can you see as potential targets? I love me Fowler

Dave Cameron

12:25

I wouldn't be surprised if they went with short contracts for older guys to make one more run while they still have Martin/Tulo/Estrada. So maybe Holliday/Beltran, then spend some money on a younger OF like Reddick?

Brian

12:26

Can you explain why a 6 PA sample size of Ross v Miller is meaningless? Nevermind that the 6 PAs occured in 2010 when Miller was a terrible starter.

Dave Cameron

12:26

All batter vs pitcher data is useless.

12:27

Can the royals get a cornerstone piece like torres for chapman when/if they trade davis?

Dave Cameron

12:27

No. The Cubs paid a crazy high price for a rental at the deadline, and the Royals won't have that kind of market this winter. Davis' health is also a real problem.

Nick S

12:27

Not being able to predict when a hot streak is over is not the same thing as understanding Heyward is completely lost at the plate now, and almost anyone would be better than him offensively.

Dave Cameron

12:28

Except baseball is full of examples of guys who were "completely lost" and then they just weren't.

12:29

Nice article by Fagestrom regarding Kluber's use of the 2-seamer. The 2-seamer is my favorite pitch, whats yours?

Dave Cameron

12:29

I will always be in the tank for a good change-up.

Doug

12:30

I think Jose Bautista will probably wind up being overpaid by somebody, but what would be a fair contract for him? Where would he make sense besides Toronto?

Dave Cameron

12:30

I think he's worth something like 3/$60M.

I could see him in Houston.

Zihuatenejo

12:30

The Dodgers have four of the offseason's most interesting free agents in Jansen, Turner, Hill, and Reddick. Which if any do you expect to re-sign with the team?

Dave Cameron

12:30

I would imagine they'll make the most serious runs at Hill and Turner.

Erik

12:31

*We* can't identify when a hot streak is over, just looking at data, but can't a manager have a decent idea, seeing his guys up close in the cage very day, and just talking to them to get some idea of where their mindset is at?

Dave Cameron

12:31

There's no evidence that they can.

Skuggs

12:32

MGL said on twitter that essentially Heyward is going to look worse running a .280 wOBA because of his size, and that if someone smaller was hitting like him, despite being a career better hitter, it wouldn't be as big of a deal. Any thoughts?

Dave Cameron

12:33

I think it's mostly confirmation bias. There's been a vocal anti-Heyward crowd for years because they didn't like the idea that a corner outfielder with average power could be an elite player. So now that he's struggling, they're just saying "I told you so" rather than looking at his performance objectively.

steve

12:33

The weather right now in Chicago would probably cancel a World Series game. This system is supposed to hit Cleveland this afternoon. How big would it be for CLE if game 2 is pushed back a day?

Dave Cameron

12:33

I think it would actually help Chicago more. Could then throw Hendricks in the game in Cleveland, and save Arrieta for Game 3 in the NL park, letting him hit.

GSon

12:34

Trevor Bauer is a ~league average pitcher. Jake Arrieta is one of the best pitchers in baseball... but not when Arrieta faced Cleveland at any time in his career. "Being average" would be an improvement for Arrieta. dontcha think? especially with Cleveland at home?

Dave Cameron

12:34

Player vs team stats are also worthless.

Kiermaier's Piercing Blue Eyes

12:35

Thanks for the detailed analytics jobs answer. Think I'll take the "easy" route and just stick to PhD applications!

Dave Cameron

12:36

I probably made it sound a little worse than it is now, since every team is expanding their R+D departments, so there's more competition for talent and more positions available these days. But yeah, you'll take a huge paycut to work for an MLB team.

Matt

12:37

In the last three years Coghlan has been a better hitter then Heyward, so from an offensive standpoint wasn't Maddons decision fine?

Dave Cameron

12:37

If the game was only about offense, then just start Schwarber at SS.

12:38

He's a better hitter than Russell.

Drew

12:38

Do you think that, with a good enough roster, the bullpen trio concept can work more effectively than it did with the Yankees? Also, seeing that Miller and Chapman both happened to make the World Series after being traded from NY, have relievers become even MORE valuable ($ wise) than they already are?

Dave Cameron

12:39

My point was that there are diminishing returns to having three guys like this. There are only so many high leverage innings to go around in the regular season.

The Mets already have two really good relievers. Spending $20 million a year to get a third probably isn't a good idea.

Disco Dan

12:40

People want to identify good Andrew Miller types and i know it isn't as easy as looking at someone as Velaquez and say he has electric stuff but won't hold up. Why not turn him into this ace reliever?

Dave Cameron

12:41

I think his future probably is in the bullpen.

Hunny buns

12:42

Comparing ss d to corner outfield d?

Dave Cameron

12:42

Defense matters at every position.

Willie hears ya,Willie dont care

12:42

Outlook on the Dodgers for next year?