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Dave Cameron
12:08
Sorry about the delay!
I'm here.
I had to finish up a Tim Raines piece before starting the chat, which you can read here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-would-a-modern-tim-raines-look-like/
Edgar Martinez Hype Man
12:08
Ad Free Fangraphs is so much better. Does Edgar Martinez get in next year?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Ad-free FanGraphs is so much better. If you haven't signed up yet, you really should. Better for you, better for us, better for the planet.

As for Edgar, I think his last ballot in two years will be his shot. He's going to need the Raines "are you sure you don't want to vote for me?" pressure.
Erik
12:10
What do you think of the Saunders signing? Combined with the Kendrick trade, it looks like the Phillies have taken a lot of plate appearances away from their recently arrived or soon-to-arrive young outfielders like Altherr, Quinn, Williams, and Cozens. Will they have enough game time available to give those guys looks to see if they'll be valuable future pieces?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Well, those guys you named are all either bad or not yet big league ready.
12:11
Saunders and Kendrick are solid enough players to allow those guys to keep developing in the minors until mid-season, and if anyone forces the issue, they can trade the veteran in July.
Maxamuz
12:11
Whats your take on Eric Thames?
Dave Cameron
12:12
The power is legit; the question is whether the strike zone judgment improvements from the KBO are real. It's not that odd for guys to figure out what to swing at later in their careers, so I'd probably guess he'll be a good hitter in the U.S. this year. Not a star, but an average-ish player.
Erik
12:12
JP Crawford already projects as better than Freddy Galvis. If service time restrictions didn't exist, would he be the Phillies' opening day starter? Or are there things he needs to learn in AAA that can't be learned at the big league level?
Dave Cameron
12:12
He wasn't great in Triple-A last year. I'd imagine the Phillies would force him to earn his way to the big leagues regardless.
J
12:12
For the most part would an outfielder put up the same WAR in all 3 spots? Just would be better defensively than the competition in the corners relative and better offensively in CF?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Average defenders, close to that. But extreme guys, no. If you took Billy Hamilton and put him in LF, he'd get fewer balls hit his way, so his defense would matter less, and his value would go down a bit. If you took Mark Trumbo and put him in CF, his lack of range would be exposed even more given the greater number of opportunities, and his value would go down.
CamdenWarehouse
12:14
What sort of year does Upton need to have to opt out or is that off the table at this point?
Dave Cameron
12:15
He'll have 4/$90M left on his deal after this year, so to get a raise from that, he'd have to really crush the ball. Something like a 140 or 150 wRC+ with sustained excellence all year.
Bernie
12:15
Hi Dave, in your post about finding the Dodgers a 2B, what do you think about Jonathan Villar as an option?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Probably not impactful enough for the Dodgers to give up the kind of talent the Brewers would want.
Craiggers
12:16
Thoughts on the Wil Myers extension?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Probably worth doing for SD, given that they have to spend money somewhere, but it wasn't cheap. An injury-prone 1B getting $20M a year three years out from FA is no huge bargain.
AKA22
12:16
If you were GM of the Reds, how would you try to get Phillips to accept a trade? Is there anything that would work to make both sides happy?
Dave Cameron
12:17
I'd probably just cut him.
If they want him to go away, that's how you do it.
v2micca
12:17
So the Braves are trying Alex Jackson back at catcher. Do you see this as a good move for both sides?
Dave Cameron
12:17
The bat doesn't look like it works anywhere else, so might as well try.
Dan
12:17
I'm moderately concerned about the health and depth of the Cubs rotation. Arrieta & Lester 600+ innings last 3 years, Hendricks 400 last 2 years...I don't see a lot of rotational depth if one gets injured. Anybody still out there worth taking a flyer on?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Well they could trade Baez for De Leon... But yeah, this is a problem for CHC. They should be in on at least one more starter, and maybe two.
Erik
12:18
Given Cesar Hernandez's youth and team control, the Phillies' rebuilding status, and the fact that he put up 4.4 WAR last year, he seemed conspicuously absent from your Brian Rosier alternatives article yesterday. Yet ZiPS just projected him for 1.7 WAR. Do you (and presumably the Dodgers) think he's closer to a 4.4-win player or a 1.7-win player going forward?
Dave Cameron
12:18
He's nowhere near a +4 win player this year. He's a mediocrity who had a fluke season.
TommyLasordid
12:19
Per your suggestion of De Leon+ for Baez: Any additional insight on just how reluctant two competing front offices are to making a blockbuster deal like that? Does fear of fan reaction if trade turns out bad often kill an otherwise logical move?
Dave Cameron
12:21
It's not so much fan reaction, as it is aversion to helping someone you're trying to beat. It's easy to talk yourself into the idea that maybe even if this is the best deal possible for you, perhaps you can find a slightly-worse deal that doesn't also benefit your rival, and creates a larger overall advantage.
Gest
12:21
How does Billy Hamilton's trade value compare to Andrelton Simmons' when he was traded?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Probably similar. Simmons had a more favorable contract, but there were some personality issues there too, and Hamilton is probably seen a bit more favorably in that way.
brockb03
12:22
Who produces the best 2017 for the Brewers out of Santana, Broxton, and Thames?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Broxton. I'm not sold that he's as good as Jeff thinks, but even his downside looks not too different from Kevin Pillar.
Matt
12:23
Just purchased my ad-free membership. It's been a whole 5 minutes, and already it might be the best purchase of the year.
Dave Cameron
12:23
Awesome, thank you. Your support is highly appreciated.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:24
The the Angels GM told you he was planning on trading Mike Trout in Feb in an "Off the record" convo, would you leak the story for 100,000$?
Dave Cameron
12:24
This question could be rephrased "let's value Dave Cameron's ethics!"
12:25
I'd like to think my word is worth enough to not sell it for financial gain. But you never really know until someone actually puts the cash on the table, right? I'd hope I'd say no to any offer.
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