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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:18
Just be yourself. Try to just be friendly, don't interrupt people, but be willing to go up and say hi. It's better to have a real conversation with someone than to try to give them a sales pitch.
IsBrittonInYet
12:18
I don't get what the Jays are doing in LF/1B. Neither Carerra or Upton can hit RHP, and depending on Pearce in left would leave no real Plan B for when their Plan A at 1B goes up in Smoak (see what I did there?). What are they thinking?
Dave Cameron
12:19
My guess is they're willing to bet that one of Upton, Carrera, or Pompey outperform expectations.
They'll figure out who it is in season.
Kaiser
12:20
Which non-playoff team could contend or shock ala Royals ? Don't say cardinals because they almost made it and they wouldn't shock anyone.
Dave Cameron
12:21
Maybe the D'Backs? I wouldn't bet on it, but there are scenarios in which Robbie Ray turns into an ace, Walker and Miller become quality starters again, Greinke bounces back, and the rotation gets decent enough to help a solid offense get to 85-90 wins.
Zock jr
12:21
Dave, this fangraphs residency thing is really cool. I think it's great that you guys leveraging your audience to give these writers an opportunity. Just a really classy move all around.
Dave Cameron
12:22
Thank you. We're excited about the program, and have gotten a lot of great nominations already. I will say, for the record, that getting your friends to spam the email address with "I recommend (name here)" with no reasoning, no links to support the writing ability, and no real effort put into the nomination is probably not a great plan.
12:23
We've only had one person who pretty clearly just texted their friends and told them all to send one-line emails to the residency email, thankfully, But please don't do that.
JKD
12:23
Completely speculatively - what is it that would lead a team to think that, oh, John Lannan would *work* as a submariner? Obviously Brad Brach shows that being a submariner means you don't need velocity, but if that's all there were to it, you'd see it a lot more.
Dave Cameron
12:23
What's the harm in trying it?
It's not like John Lannan costs you anything.
Jake
12:23
Who do you think will produce more WAR in their first 6 years, Jake Bauers TBR or Dylan Cozens PHI?
Dave Cameron
12:23
Bauers
SDinSEA
12:24
Does Hedges' bat have enough in it for some All-Star campaigns?
Dave Cameron
12:25
If the glove is as good as advertised, he doesn't have to hit much.
JKD
12:25
Michael A. Taylor is tearing it up in spring training so far - just like he did last year. He's been... not good, in actual games, but also shows just enough to keep you interested. With Werth probably needing ~40 games off even with good health, what's the play here? Gamble once more on Taylor's upside and maybe you have a five-tool CF for 2018 and beyond? Or sign Angel Pagan and get a more assured floor but much lower ceiling?
Dave Cameron
12:25
I'd take Pagan.
Taylor seems like interesting depth but I wouldn't want to count on him.
Jim
12:26
With all the talk now about launch angles and exit velocity, why is the third important component, spin, rarely mentioned?
Dave Cameron
12:26
Not as easy to measure.
And spray angle is also important.
BB/K
12:27
Is there a threshold of major league IP or PA, when player projections become significantly more reliable?
Dave Cameron
12:27
Thresholds in general are bad ideas. Everything gets more reliable one unit at a time.
Eric
12:28
Hi Dave! I'm enjoying the new ATC projections and the post introducing them was great. Can individual players' ATC projection be added to their pages?
Dave Cameron
12:28
ATC doesn't project a number of things that ZIPS and Steamer project, since it's a fantasy-first system, so it's going to be leaderboards-only for now.
Ron
12:29
Jeimer Candelario looks good so far (albeit in ST). Save maybe 10 teams (CHC, TEX, TOR, COL, BAL, SEA, TB, MIN, etc.) would he be an everyday starter at 3B?
Dave Cameron
12:30
Nope. Given the number of questions I get about him, and what Cubs fans apparently think he is, he's probably the most overrated prospect in baseball right now. He's a 23 year old 3B who projects for a 92 wRC+ in 2017. That makes him something like Eugenio Suarez.
DrunkPhil
12:30
Is Yasiel Alvarez's upside higher than Julio Urias?
Dave Cameron
12:30
No. Urias' upside is best pitcher in baseball.
Josh
12:31
Opinions are all over the map on Gary Sanchez. He never hit for the power he displayed in his MLB debut in the minors, but the exit velocity readings seem to indicate it wasn't all that flukish. What are your expectations for him this season?
Dave Cameron
12:31
The power is legit. Doesn't mean he'll get the same results, but the power is there.
John
12:31
Will Alex Bregman hit enough and for enough power to be considered an elite offensive 3B?
Dave Cameron
12:32
A week ago, I would have said yes. But man, the batted ball numbers Tony showed in his piece are super scary. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-hitter-contact-quality-report-a-few-nl-non-qualifiers/
Josh
12:33
Trade rumors seem to have completely diminished in regards to Ryan Braun. What are the chances of a mid season trade happening this year?
Dave Cameron
12:33
Pretty good, I'd think. If he's hitting well, I think they'll try to move him to create ABs for Brinson.
Balls
12:33
If the MLB did change the ball and didn’t tell anyone, wouldn’t that be strange? Not illegal but unethical? It just seems so strange that they would do that.
Dave Cameron
12:34
The ball changing didn't have to be on purpose.
Manufacturing standards allow for enough variance that a batch could behave differently even if no one was trying to change the ball.
I don't buy that MLB engaged in a conspiracy to increase HRs. But I do think that maybe it happened on accident.
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