JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Dave Cameron

12:01

Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:02

With the draft almost in the rear view mirror, the summer trade season is about to get started.

Should be an interesting six weeks leading up to the deadline.

ChiSox

12:02

Do you see STL, PIT, MIL going for it at the deadline?

Dave Cameron

12:02

STL yes, PIT and MIL no.

Grate

12:02

How does draft pick compensation work now? Do you think the Reds would be better off trading Cozart or getting compensation for losing him this offseason?

Dave Cameron

12:04

You can still make a qualifying offer, but what kind of pick you receive is based on the player's total contract, whether you're over the luxury tax or not, and whether you pay or receive revenue sharing. In the Reds situation, the last two factors don't really impact them, but Cozart probably isn't cracking $50 million this winter, which is what he would need to get for the Reds to get a 1st round pick. A trade makes the most sense.

Cody

12:05

People keep saying the Brewers will be sellers at the deadline. Who will they sell? Braun is almost un-tradable, Travis Shaw is only 27, Thames' contract makes him too valuable to trade right now, and the bullpen sucks so they can't trade from there. Junior Guerra?

Dave Cameron

12:05

Matt Garza probably goes.

But yeah, they're probably more of a hold team than a sell team.

Justin

12:06

Hey Dave I hope I get the question to go through this time. More of an NBA and college fan but in a wannabe baseball analytic guy just not there yet. The question is how does a team like say the padres, who I heard on mlb network had passed all these great players, rebuild in a draft like say an NFL team or NBA team? How long is the usual timeline for a staff to rebuild and contend. I understand it's going to vary based on the minor leagues and things just curious about the process. Please and thanks in advance!

Dave Cameron

12:06

You can't really just rebuild through the draft in MLB. The failure rate of draft picks is too high. You have to sign international guys (which SD did very aggressively last year), make trades and small free agent signings that land you guys with upside, and draft well. It's not just one thing.

The Average Sports Fan

12:07

64 games in, and the Cubs sit at 32-32. A lot of talk about their rotation, but in reality they have not hit. Any easy solutions?

Dave Cameron

12:07

Patience might not be easy, but it is the solution.

primantis

12:08

Will the average fastball velocity top 100 mph within the next 10 years?

Dave Cameron

12:08

We're at ~92-93 now, so no. Eventually, maybe, if the league doesn't do something to intervene, but we're not that close to 100 mph average velo.

The Average Sports Fan

12:08

Dusty Baker seems a little upset with his bullpen situation. What do you think they do?

Dave Cameron

12:09

They're clearly going to trade for a closer. Kelvin Herrera and David Robertson most often rumored. Ryan Madson could be a short-term fix if they want someone sooner than later.

Eduardo

12:10

Is there any logical reason for the Mets to continue to keep Rosario down, especially now that Cabrera is hurt?

Dave Cameron

12:11

When you're starting Jose Reyes, the bar to clear is so low that you can't really argue that Rosario wouldn't be better. But I do think his expected production is probably being overstated. Steamer projects him for a 76 wRC+ right now. His numbers aren't that great for being in Vegas. Obviously a lot of upside, but idea that he's ready to come up and hit big league pitching right now isn't so sure.

Jose Reyes also can't hit big league pitching, though.

12:12

Is CarGo broken? Could he be in the Heyward/McCutchen camp of ''healthy but swing is off"? Feel like his track record of ups/downs should actually make Rockies fans feel better?

Dave Cameron

12:12

I think he's more in the always-been-overrated camp. He's an aging player with flaws who looks like he's in decline.

Matt

12:13

Dave, thanks so much for your work. I'm about to subscribe, as I've been freeloading for years. What sense of urgency should Cubs have , in terms of addressing the SP? With Lackey's free fall, there are beginning to be negative knock-on effects with the pen.

Dave Cameron

12:13

They clearly need another starter.

I don't know that they have to make a move for an ace, since Lester/Arrieta still pretty good, but they need depth.

Jason Vargas could be a nice fit for them.

JTT

12:14

Vlad Guerrero JR was born in Canada, why was he not draft eligible?

Dave Cameron

12:14

He was raised at his brother's academy in the D.R.

Hannah Hochevar

12:15

Read the O's Pitching piece with interest. Do you think the new pitching coach has been a factor (changing pitch selection or arm slot stuff?) or is he just a bystander to the ineptitude? Thanks!

Dave Cameron

12:16

Don't think there's much he could have done about Tillman getting hurt or bad pitchers being bad. Gausman is the one you could maybe say there's a development problem, but no real evidence to link that to pitching coach.

Benjamin Wittes

12:17

Yankees trade Gardner to get rid of the logjam during the season and capitalize on his newfound power, or they roll with the 4 OF's till after the season?

Dave Cameron

12:17

No reason to make the team worse when you're in first place.

Erica

12:18

Orioles finally going to tear it down? And if so do they go all the way and unload Machado?

Dave Cameron

12:18

They're at .500 with lots of guys underachieving. I don't see them selling unless the next month goes really poorly. Easy to talk yourself into "once Machado hits, and we get Britton back, and Gausman gets straightened out..."

Jake

12:19

I was thinking about how the hard salary cap in the NBA hurts parity, by forcing players to prioritize non-salary opportunities in big markets/championship odds. Can you think of any MLB parity mechanisms that backfire similarly?

Dave Cameron

12:19

Compensation picks for losing free agents. The teams that have players good enough to get a QO are generally high-revenue clubs who can afford to let a guy like that get to FA instead of trading him first. The Yankees got Aaron Judge's pick as compensation for letting Nick Swisher leave, for instance.

Ryan

12:20

I love the PitchTalk events. How do the panelists perceive them? Are they enjoyable, or more of a chore?

Dave Cameron

12:20

They're definitely enjoyable. Always a fun time.

David

12:20

Who would you guess the Cubs and Astros will target?

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