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ManBearPuig
12:21
Over or under on Rhys Hoskins's wrc+ for next year:  140.
Dave Cameron
12:21
I'll take the under because that's a high bar for anyone.
But he's a good hitter, pretty clearly.
Jason
12:22
Please give me something about Matt Olson. Very little out there on him at all, and the dude has been a beast. Please get someone to write an article on him soon.
Dave Cameron
HoskinsSmash
12:22
Would you mind explaining the logic behind why HRs are not counted as Balls in play for BABIP?  Other than the obvious fact that they leave the confines of the field.
Dave Cameron
12:23
BABIP came to be a thing when DIPS theory was pushed forward by Voros McCracken. Since he was showing that non-HR hit rate was mostly random, HRs had to be excluded from the calculation.
v2micca
12:23
Still find it hard to believe that Ohtani will post this year.  After reading your article, I increasingly suspect some team has already made a under the table agreement with him for an early extension in 2019.
Dave Cameron
12:24
I really doubt there's already something in place.
12:25
When teams get international guys to agree to deals before they turn 16, it's usually an open secret, and those guys don't keep working out for others. If Ohtani already had some big money guarantee from someone, I suspect his thigh injury would have lingered and he wouldn't have taken the mound again this year.
Charlie
12:25
MLB Network calls you up and asks you for your recommendation for a Saber savvy writer to have his own show. Geography notwithstanding, who do you recommend?
Dave Cameron
12:25
Jonah Keri
He's the most TV-ready baseball nerd.
Brian
12:26
Recently that the game odds appear to be indicating stronger probabilities (~75% win probability) than I thought likely for any single game. Is this a product of the end of the season (more complete information) and some unique match ups (Kluber vs Detroit) or has there been a change in the way single game odds are calculated?
Dave Cameron
12:26
Just match-ups. The Indians are really good and this Tigers roster is really bad.
Dookie Howser, MD
12:26
RE: Otani-mania: Remember Daisuke Matsuzaka? I remember Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Dave Cameron
12:27
Dice-K threw 92. Otani throws 100.
Big Tuna
12:27
If you were one of the teams that basically is payroll constrained at or around the luxury tax line (Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers, Nationals, Giants, Angels), and Mike Trout were a free agent after this season, how much would be be willing to pay him on a 1 year deal?
Dave Cameron
12:27
Probably $60-$70M.
Jeff
12:28
Smash my hopes early and tell me why the Nats have no chance at signing Otani
Dave Cameron
12:28
They'll probably try to backload the posting fee.
Zach
12:28
If Otani makes a team promise they'd play him two ways, would he make more sense for an AL team (so he can just DH) or an NL team (so he can play some outfield and also bat every game he's the pitcher)?
Dave Cameron
12:29
I think an NL team. It's going to be hard for an AL team to promise an unknown run at DH, where the bar for playing time is pretty high. It's much easier for an NL team to be confident that he's a better hitter than their other pitchers, and say he could pinch hit for the P every game he doesn't start.
Julio Pepper
12:30
Otani gets 300m as a free agent, right? Tanaka got 155 w/ opt out, and by all accounts Otani's much better, is younger, and can hit. (Also, Ohtani or Otani?)
Dave Cameron
12:30
Yeah, probably. Depends on opt-outs and length, but no question it cracks $200M, and probably goes well over.
stever20
12:31
So realistically who is the favorite for the AL Cy Young right now?  Corey Kluber or Chris Sale?
Dave Cameron
12:31
Narrative + ERA probably gives Kluber the edge.
Mr. Fister
12:32
Hard to believe that ANY playoff contender could be running out guys like Big Bart, Kyle Gibson, etc....A testament to how bad the AL is after Houston and Cleveland?
Dave Cameron
12:32
Boston is fine too.
12:33
There are three good teams in the AL. The Yankees are decent. Everyone else is meh or worse.
Babe Lincoln
12:33
Presumably guaranteeing SO a chance to play both ways in MLB could be a big boost in trying to sign him.  So what would you propose to him as the hitting/pitching arrangement if you're the GM?
Dave Cameron
12:34
No one is going to let him play the field, and I don't know that an AL team can really promise that he can be a regular DH without seeing him hit against MLB pitching. They could offer to have that be the starting plan, but if he's quickly exposed as a hitter, you can't run out a black hole at a bat-only position forever.
12:35
So I think an NL team makes the most sense. He bats when he pitches and he is the first pinch-hitter off the bench on other days.
Hizouse
12:35
Critical question: should I start spelling it "Ohtani" instead of "Otani"?
Dave Cameron
12:36
Yeah, that seems to be the preferred spelling. I originally went with Otani in my post today, but changed it after we received an email suggesting that Ohtani was more correct.
LegallyEagle
12:36
Is it even possible for Otani to buy an insurance policy to cover potential loss of earning potential in the instance of an injury? Like I'm sure it's > 0% to find said policy, but to cover a potential loss of say a quarter billion, Otani likely has to pay an absurd amount?
Dave Cameron
12:37
The policies players can usually buy are for catastrophic injury that prevent you from playing. So he could get a deal that covered him if he couldn't keep playing, but not one that paid him lost wages if he just had normal pitcher arm problems that he rehabbed.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:38
As a yankee fan, is it crazy for me to be VERY disappointed if they don't sign him? I see this guy as a risk free FA, because the contract is small, if he blows out his arm, you might have an everyday Corner OFer or DH. If he can translate his hitting you have a full time pitcher, with stuff to start and close.
Dave Cameron
12:38
That's why fans of every team should be disappointed if they don't sign him.
The Yankees aren't entitled to him just because they're the Yankees.
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