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Dave Cameron
1:15
They just upped the limit last year, and they knew Ohtani existed then.
Phil
1:15
Stanton got 13/$325 at the same age Trout is now... so that doesn't seem entirely out of the question, though it would be shocking to see a total value that great. I would think maybe 12/$500 would be more satiable to the market, but then again, we haven't seen a Trout-level player hit FA since the dawn of the info age.
Dave Cameron
1:16
Stanton was *four years* from free agency.
1:17
Actually, sorry, that's wrong. He was two years from free agency.
But still, a pre-FA extension and an open market bidding war aren't apples to apples comparisons.
Oddball Herrera
1:17
Isn't the proper question: are there enough teams that *could* go to $500 or $600 million for Trout that the teams that can have incentive to go that high?  This was the issue with A-Rod's opt-out, no one was going to pay him what the Yankees could pay him
Dave Cameron
1:17
Every team in baseball could afford to pay Mike Trout $40 million.
Every single one.
Babe Lincoln
1:18
Realistically, Lucas Duda is a _________th percentile outcome for Hoskins?
Dave Cameron
1:18
20th
Jack
1:18
Wouldn't a team gladly accept the punishment for circumventing the rules to sign Ohtani?   I mean, at the end of the day, you get Ohtani.
Dave Cameron
1:18
MLB has to approve the contract.
Oddball Herrera
1:20
Make it an even playing field - teams are allowed to offer Otani up to their bonus pool cap, they are not allowed to negotiate directly with him, Otani can choose where he wants to go, and then teams can give him any sort of contract they choose afterwards.  No ambiguity, no shenanigans.
Dave Cameron
1:20
How do you police the no-contact order?
As soon as he picks someone, the other 29 teams will assume that team contacted him somehow.
Lots of ambiguity, lots of shenanigans.
Buck
1:20
It's not that Trout isn't worth $40M per year that's troubling, it's the 15 year term. 10/$400M makes sense, 15/$600M ignores the Albert Pujols' albatross.
Dave Cameron
1:21
Mike Trout isn't Albert Pujols.
The Bryce Harper contract is going to blow your mind.
And Trout is significantly better.
yo knows
1:22
Don't the Dodgers have like $300k to offer? Isn't the question between $300k and $10m a bit heavier than the question between $6m and $10m?
Dave Cameron
1:23
Keep in mind that it's all taxed heavily anyway, so in take-home pay, the max offer is really more like $5M in his bank account. There just isn't enough difference between the bonus offers to make that the deciding factor.
brian
1:24
Dave, doesn't the AL home team choose whether or not they want to use a DH for any particular game, so couldn't an AL team that signs Ohtani have a decent advantage in home games that he starts by waiving the DH for that game?
Dave Cameron
1:24
No, you can't make the other team not also use a DH.
Big Joe Mufferaw
1:27
What was the biggest contract before A-rod? I think the % increase of those 2 contracts should be about what Trout would get. Don't you think?
Dave Cameron
Gary Sanchez
1:28
Would I as a GM be crazy to say I want no part of a 15 year contract for Trout?
Dave Cameron
1:28
Yes.
Dan Warthen
1:28
re: Buck.  The point is that he's theoretically worth 10/$600.  The 5 years added are just a means of deferring money so as to lessen the impact on current luxury tax obligations.  Whatever the guess of his worth is, years are just a matter of deferral.
Dave Cameron
1:28
Bingo.
Ray
1:29
I think it's crazy to say that there's no difference between the available bonus pools. $300k + League minimum is comfortably upper middle class lifestyle. $10M + Minimum is yacht money. I think that would matter, even (especially?) if I was giving up $200M payday in 2 years.
Dave Cameron
1:29
Ohtani already has yacht money.
Alby
1:29
Could a team just say "screw it" and give him $40 million and pay a $40 million tax?
Dave Cameron
1:29
No, the bonus pools are now hard caps.
1:30
Alright, 90 minutes of non-stop Shohei Otani chat is going to have to be all I can do today.
Thanks for hanging out everyone.
We'll do it again next week, and maybe by then, have something else to talk about.
Maybe some team will go on a crazy winning/losing streak or something.
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