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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
2:01
What's up, everyone? I published the first of an obviously multi-part series on the prep summer showcase stuff I've been seeing. Part 1 is here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-draft-summer-showcase-series-left-handed-pitchers/
And time to chat...
Julio Pepper
2:01
How would the top of the 2015 draft go today? Bregman/Benintendi/Swanson?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:02
Too early to go back and re-do that sort of thing and definitely too early to imply that mistake up top were made. Like I wouldn't fault the Rockies for taking Brendan Rodgers at 3 if he's there, even with Benintendi on the board.
Great 8
2:02
What's your future value for Yohander Mendez?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:03
Stuff is really good, has a chance to be an above average Major League starter, maybe make an All Star team or two at peak.
Paul
2:03
Is Jahmai Jones a top 100 prospect at this point?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:04
For me, yes. Best prospect in that system.
Bobby Blownilla
2:04
Any under-the-radar catching prospects you think might blossom into starting/everyday types someday?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:05
Depends how sensitive your radar is. If we're talking deep sleepers then I like guys like Jose Herrera, Austin Rei, Pereda in the Cubs system, I have a crush on Garrett Stubbs...lots of guys
2:06
If you're just looking for non-top 100 guys then Deivi Grullon, Jake Rogers, Chris Okey...
but those are high-profile names in the world I live in.
MATT
2:06
Is Maurico Dubon a legitimate prospect to become a league average SS?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:06
Not for me, no.
Eric
2:06
Thoughts on Alec Hansen's debut? The stats are ridiculous. Did the White Sox change anything with him?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:07
Only change I saw here after he signed was he was working with the curveball as the primary breaking ball. Other than that, not sure what's been done but if it was so simple that it's already had this kind of impact, why didn't it happen at OU? It's nuts what's going on with him right now.
CubbieBlues
2:08
If every player who is under the age of 23 became available in the draft, who would go in the top 5? This hypothetical includes current major league players.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:08
Hold on, give me several hours to sort through all of those players and line up a board....
art vandelay
2:09
any concern with alex reyes long-term outlook as a SP? Is STL going to be tempted to keep him the bullpen?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:10
Sure, there's some because of the strike throwing issues but I think the control will come. Even if the chances were slim say, 20% that Reyes eventually threw enough strikes to be a starter (and btw I think they're high er than that) I'd still give him every opportunity to do it because the upside is so high. I expect the Cardinals to give him every opportunity.
Mystery Team
2:11
Anytime I see a top 100 prospect list, the blurb for Dominic Smith, usually ranked mid 70s, is almost always skeptical or negative. In general, why include a player like this on the list in the first place if you seemingly work to invalidate his ranking. Not saying it's wrong, I think it must be something I don't get about the methodology
Eric A Longenhagen
2:12
So, there are inevitably going to be prospects that the writer does not love but, because of the nature of the job and the way we need to listen to the industry, we're forced to rank in a spot that feels high. It's just part of the job. Our individual skepticism needs to come through in the write-up.
2:13
That's what I'd expect to be the source of the Dom Smith thing, though I like him. And I could just be wrong.
johnforthegiants
2:13
Have you ever seen such and overhyped prospect as Bryant fail as much as he'd had? He's really regressed as a clutch hitter this year. And he can't sustain his BAPIP (a stat that most FG readers don't understand).
Eric A Longenhagen
2:13
You know what, nevermind.
Tim
2:14
How long does it take a guy to learn first base? Josh Bell looked like he had zero days experience there in his debut yesterday
Eric A Longenhagen
2:14
Depends on the prospect. Bell has been bad there since day one. It's possible he just can't do it. He's not an exceptional athlete.
Jeet
2:14
Pick 2 to stash from: Buxton, Martes, Tom Murphy and Amir Garrett. Thanks :)
Eric A Longenhagen
2:15
Buxton and Martes.
Adam
2:15
Jake Bauers doesn't seem to get a lot of attention for a Top 100 prospect. Is his ranking more related to floor than ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:16
1B-only for many and only fringe to average power. To profile at 1B, he'd better be a 6 hitter and more than that to make a top 100 list.
Adam
2:16
Scouting the box score, Buddy Reed does not look very good. Should he be evaluated more on process over results, or does he fail the scout's eye test as well?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:17
Scouts have always questioned Reed's bat. He's tooled up in every other way imaginable, but he's always been a lousy hitter.
A. Reitz
2:17
Curious your thoughts on Tyler Austin and Jordan Patterson? Every day players w/ upside or 4th OF's?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:18
Austin I once thought could be a regular. 6 hit 5 power, injuries really took a toll. If he's suddenly healthy again then yes, I think he can contribute. Patterson is more of a fourth OF for me.
Adam
2:18
If you had to prognosticate on the futures of Brayan Hernandez and Chris Torres from the Mariners system, whom would you say is the better long term bet to be a successful major leaguer?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:18
I'll take Torres.
Mike T.
2:18
Hey Eric - What do you think of Jays SS prospect Richard Urena? Is the bat ahead of the glove?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:19
Yes. That body has always been likely to move off of SS. I think the bat profiles at 3B, though.
Ben
2:20
Would you keep Nick Senzel or Anderson Espinoza ?
When do you project both getting to the bigs ?
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