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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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YKnotDisco?!
12:52
Are you on board with Gose as a pitcher? Does his transition have a good foundation? I mean, do you see some good traits and feel for doing so at a high level?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
I'm on board with all conversion guys, especially ones who, if rosters expand, could play another specific role. Gose and James Jones could both be LOOGYs and late-inning pinch runners. I dig that.
Mickey
12:54
With Billy McKinney looking to take some reps at 1B during instructs and the AFL, do you think his bat profiles enough there?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Probably not everyday, but positional versatility helps his chances of holding a big league roster spot. And NYY have had health issues there, so it's all hands on deck at 1B.
RMR
12:56
You had a 45 FV on Taylor Trammell.   Has his strong season in Dayton changed that much?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
Sure, he went from 'two-sport high school athlete with upside' to 'toolsy guy who has produced on-field results' and, just from a confidence/risk perspective that moves him up.
Chris
12:57
How many prospects could Eric Longenhagen name off the top of his head if he was only given a piece of paper and a pencil?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
We will never learn the answer to this
Guest
12:59
What would it take for Joc Peterson to regain some his value? Did we overestimate his upside, or is he just a few tweaks away from unlocking his potential?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:59
I think we, generally, hop on young player bandwagons too fast.
Sonny
12:59
Does Austin Meadow's 2017 alter your long term view on him? Can we expect similar production but in 'injury prone' lengths of time?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
It was a discouraging year but I think Meadows has far too much talent to simply give up on.
Monica Bellucci
1:00
do you find your job more challenging now than, say, 4-5 years ago, when there weren't so many armchair scouts? the ease of finding information from which to form an opinion online has made many fans very opinionated about prospects they have never seen. wondering if that makes it more difficult for you.
Bort
1:01
Shed Long or Max Schrock: who do you prefer, and why?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
I think it's altered the type of discourse I have with readers but I can't say if it's made it harder. The growing gap between what teams know about prospects and what I know is what is making this harder.
1:02
Bort: Shed, more pop and he's relatively new to the infield so maybe more defensive upside, too.
Dookie Howser, MD
1:03
Famed anthropolgist Franz Boas once claimed that the native Eskimo–Aleut languages contained several words for "snow" showing the significance and pervasiveness of the substance in their everyday life. In today's modern English we have several dozen - perhaps even hundreds - of words for feces. So three part question: (1) What does this say about us as a modern society? (2) What is your favorite synonym for feces?, and (3) Which version should we use to describe the Angels farm system?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
(1) That the things we think and care about are largely impacted by our lifestyles and those things become more frivolous the more comfortable we get (2) Doodoo. I can't not laugh at doodoo (3) I actually think it's gotten much better in the last year
Dooduh
1:07
Think Forest Wall ultimately settles in at 2B or in the OF?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
LF
Differences in terminology
1:07
What's the difference between above average, plus, plus-plus, etc.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
standard deviations
so 50=average
and 60 is one standard deviation away.
Babe Lincoln
1:07
Tomas Nido gonna be an interesting guy at all?  Or organizational depth?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
An interesting glove-first guy
Dunt
1:08
Outside the names we all know, who is someone to keep an eye on in the lower levels of the White Sox organization?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:10
Luis Curbelo. Not a SS for me but has power. I'm not a big Amado Nunez or Lenyn Sosa guy because I don't think they're shortstops either, but they might hit enough to play 2B.
prospect hugs
1:10
considering the price of relievers in recent years, getting Robertson and Kahnle (as well as Frazier) for a risky prospect in rutherford seems like a huge steal at this point, no?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
I think Miller and Chapman were elite exceptions at the time, not the rule, and relief health/performance volatility (both of which I think are evident in what those two guys have done since) will probably discourage teams from dealing big prospects for relievers.
1:12
Of course, if you're the Cubs and feel like you're one piece away from a parade, you deal Gleyber.
1:13
Context is a really important aspect of trade leverage and value, I don't think it exists in as much of a vacuum as it's generally discussed.
DB
1:13
Do teams adjust their prospect development strategy based on whether the MLB club is competing or rebuilding? Take Walker Buehler for example, how would his year have been different if he were in the White Sox system instead of the Dodgers? What about players in A or AA?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:14
Yes, I think they do. If the Dodgers were bad he'd have been handled differently, probably started all year and been shut down in August.
1:15
But that's player to player. The Dodgers didn't handle Keibert Ruiz differently this year because the big club is good. They discussed Buehler as a potential big league contributor dating back to last fall, this course of action has been in place for a while.
Drew
1:16
I know its not fair to ask you to answer for the industry/other analysts, but why does Matt Thaiss receive any attention? We're talking about a 22 y/o 1B with a sub 400 SLG. Is there supposed power to come or something?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:17
I've never been on Thaiss but, just to play devil's advocate, might he start hitting for power in the big leagues simply because of the baseball?
Moltar
1:17
Andres Gimenez's numbers seem underwhelming, but I know he was quite young for the level. What kind of FV would you put on him now? Is he a top-100 consideration?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:22
Okay so here's a glimpse of how I go about this: Jordy Mercer is a good example of a 45 shortstop. He's a 1.5 WAR shortstop, has been about that for several consecutive years. He hit .255/.326/.405 this year with about average defense. Do I think, based on scouting, Gimenez can outperform that line? Yes. Xander Bogaerts is nearly a 3 WAR player with a .267/.340/.390 line, something I think Gimenez can attain.
1:24
So, if I assume the offensive environment will be similar for Gimenez and that his scouting profile will yield a similar line to what X produced this year then that means I think Gimenez is a 55 or 60 (a 2.5 or 3 WAR guy) at maturity (and I do), then I have to back out some of that number for risk. He's in the low minors but is young for the level, performed well for a teenager in fullseason ball, etc. so I think the risk is lower than it is for many other prospects this age. I'd slap either a 50 or 55 FV on Gimenez right now.
Stove
1:24
Anthony Banda touched 99 in relief last night and sat 97. He's had a rough go of it this year. Does he still strike you as a mid-rotation SP?
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