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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Is this thing on?
So it is.
12:03
In case you missed it, BA's John Manuel is taking a job with the Twins. I wish him well.
OKay, baseball stuff.
Sam
12:03
Anything new you've heard on the Atlanta investigation?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Just that it's almost concluded, nothing else that isn't out there publicly.
Ben
12:04
What's your opinion on Alex Jackson behind the plate after seeing him in the AFL? Seems like everyone is saying he struggled behind the plate, and if you agree, is it fixable? I'd imagine it's probably expected that a guy would struggle in his first year transitioning back to catcher.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Yeah and Fall League catchers are particularly tough to evaluate because they're here after a long season and catching an entirely new staff of pitchers. You take it with a grain of salt because catchers really get beat up during the year and the position requires a lot of energy to do competently, let alone well. And I think you're right that these issues are compounded by it being Jackson's first year back. But his catching has been, at best, of mixed quality in my looks so far.
Tommy N.
12:06
Have you seen Andres Munoz much in the AFL? Do you think he’ll be a fast riser through the minor leagues?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Yup, saw and wrote about him in the spring. He's likely a pure reliever so yes, he has a chance to move quickly. As soon as his command comes, he could march through the system quickly because the stuff is already in place.
Charlie
12:07
What happens more often: a top 100 prospect busts or a prospect outside the top 100 becomes a ML regular?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
There are like 6,500 pro prospects in baseball at any given time, so it's more likely one of the 6,400 of them not on an arbitrary top 100 list becomes a regular.
Logan
12:08
Is Max Fried showing the kind of stuff in Arizona that made him sound so exciting at the end of the Rome playoff run last year? The results certainly have been strong so far.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Stuff is great -- like 92-96 with a plus curveball and average changeup -- but still needs to improve command which, at age 23, is still possible but perhaps not very likely. He did miss time recovering from TJ so maybe the command is coming later.
Logan
12:10
Has Austin Riley done anything in Arizona to enhance your opinion of him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
He looks more loose and fluid than he has in the past but hasn't moved the needle all that much.
Waltharius
12:11
It seems as though power prospect Padres produce have tough time hitting with average (e.g. Renfroe, Grandal, Alonso, Gyorko, etc). Is there any prospect in the system with a blend of both hitting tool and a power tool? Am I optimistic to think that Naylor will be a 30+ HR with .260BA?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
I'm not a Naylor fan unless he finds a way to get to more of that power in games. He has huge raw but it doesn't play in games due to approach and swing path. Tatis, I think, is the guy you want to follow.
Mac
12:12
The other day I posed a question to a local Cleveland sports reporter if we could get any kind of news on prospects in the AFL (didn't really expect much, maybe a quick blurb update at some point). The response I got was "Go to Arizona" and "pitch a tent". I'm in college right now so not exactly feasible. I would like to thank you on behalf of everyone here for pitching a tent for us so that we can get to know those prospects that not too many others are covering
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Thanks. This probably isn't news to you, but FanGraphs serves a very devoted niche of baseball fans and personnel. And my stuff, though less math-intensive, serves an even narrower, nerdier niche. Beat writers need to sell papers and generate clicks from your Uncle Craig, and stuff about whether or not Edmundo Sosa's arm is strong enough for him to play SS is not going to do it.
So I understand why others don't see value in coming here but I'm glad to provide what I can and hope to keep getting better at it.
Dominik
12:15
Do you think the travel ball and showcase circuit is part of the reason why players are better at a young age due to earlier high level competition and training but sometimes also flame out earlier due to more wear and tear in the youth?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Yeah, actually. I think some pitchers do throw too much during the summer, especially.
ohioastrosfan
12:17
Astros farm seems to be Tucker + Whitley then a large drop off. Who is the next best prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
I think it's Alvarez
Kris in Seattle
12:18
Outside of the Mesa Solar Sox, how many Astros prospects have you seen in person this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
None this year. Hurricanes squashed my FL instrux plans.
Luis Urias
12:19
Why don't you like me much? I am a hitting machine.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
I like you, everyone I talk to likes you. Here's my question: How much hitting does a hit-first 2B have to do if he doesn't have power?
Waltharius
12:21
I saw Adrian Morejon first hand in the on deck game; 94-96mph FB, good command, changeups with sink, curveball with depth. He looked very well rounded prospect. Does he have a potential to be a top of the rotation starter in your eyes?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Yup, that's him. Yeah, I think he has an outside shot to be a #2. More likely a #3, which is great.
HumHum
12:22
Is the ceiling on Keston Hiura a Howie Kendrick with less pop?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
He has more power than Kendrick.
JGM
12:23
The Astros have prospects Michael Feliz, Francis Martes and now Forrest Whitley.  In the RP core now is Joe Musgrove and Chris Devinski.  Will any of these SPs become a #1 SP or possibly a strong #2 SP?  Thank you kindly!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
I think Whitley has front-end talent and the best strike-throwing ability of the big-stuff guys you mentioned. Martes is the one who is tough to nail down. I was never high on Musgrove but he's probably a #4. The rest are relievers.
Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch
12:25
Is the Winker/McKinney profile quickly becoming an anachronism? Seems like skilled hitter corner outfielder who doesn’t have plus power or plus defense/can’t play center is just a guy that a team is looking to replace
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
It's becoming a player bucket with negative connotations but some of those guys are going to hit enough that you don't care that they don't have prototypical power for the position. Like John Olerud was technically a hit-first 1B without huge raw power. I know those are exceptions and they're likely to increase in rarity given the way the hitting climate is shifting, but I still need to be on the lookout for freaks and exceptions.
James
12:27
Does Meija's relatively low walk rate worry you once he reaches the big leagues full time for the Indians or whoever might trade for him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
A little bit as we've seen guys who have enough talent to get by swinging at everything in the minors (because they're talented enough to hit everything) struggle in the Majors because it becomes too hard. I think everything is in place for Mejia to be really good and I'm all-in on him as a prospect, but he's not without this risk.
Jim Lahey
12:29
Thoughts on the starts of Justus Sheffield and Albert Abreu?
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