JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat

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Hello

9:51

Why does Joe Kelly's 102 get smacked around? Other high velocity relievers miss bats with it(even without good command)

Paul Swydan

9:51

Because it comes in relatively straight and they're still able to guess fastball.

9:53

Having said that, he didn't allow a run in May. So he's seemingly figuring some things out.

Terence

9:53

What kind of playoff odds would you need to see to be a buyer at the deadline as the GM of the Twins or Brewers? 50% or so?

Paul Swydan

9:53

I'd need 70% or higher. They're ahead of schedule, and in order for me to try to push that schedule ahead with an aggressive trade, I'd need more of a sure thing.

Cody

9:54

I can answer the taxation question on gambling winnings: you can offset that income with gambling losses (only to the extent of your winnings however) if you itemize.

Paul Swydan

9:54

Cody comes through.

Crazy Aunt Marie

9:54

June 6th and Aaron Judge is still hitting .330. What is his avg at years end and how many homers do you think he finishes with?

Paul Swydan

9:54

Hi Crazy Aunt Marie.

9:55

I'll say .317, but that is based on nothing. It just feels right.

TheManJack

9:55

What can we do to make Tanaka great again?

Paul Swydan

9:55

I don't know. Might have to look into it. It's basically the $20,000 question for the Yankees right now. As I mentioned in my Severino piece yesterday, if the Yankees can get Tanaka right, then they don't need to trade for a SP.

hscer

9:56

oh, so no fantasy questions w/out Jeff then? so, um...what's the square root of pi?

Paul Swydan

9:56

You flatter me with such questions.

Rufus T. Firefly

9:56

Do we still believe in Mitch Haninger with all our hearts?

Paul Swydan

9:56

Yes, come on back to us Mitch!

9:57

Great, now I have this song stuck in my head. I blame Rufus.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer

9:57

Would the Yankees entertain a Franco trade? The Phils would be selling low, but the Yanks have a deep farm system, they could pluck a few young prospects.

Paul Swydan

9:57

I can't see that happening, no.

hscer

9:58

Paul you should take a poll on what's older, Facebook at the time of The Social Network or the Social Network now ; p

Paul Swydan

9:59

That tweet made me feel so old today. I still remember learning about Facebook back in 2004-2005, when the only way you could register as a non-college student was to create a form for your whole business. I signed up as a Rockies employee. I felt so betrayed when they dropped that requirement. Stupid Facebook.

joe

9:59

is this what a peak carlos correa season is?

Paul Swydan

10:00

It's hard to imagine him being better than this, but I want to believe he can be better than this anyway.

Ice cubicle

10:00

You buying this Cutch turnaround.

Paul Swydan

10:00

I want to so very, very, very much.

We were talking about Cutch as a potential Hall of Famer just last year. Feels like a million years ago.

David

10:01

I always enjoy looking at actual graphs here but I'm not sure what rolling rates mean-like rolling ten game ISO or something.

Paul Swydan

10:02

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average

Basically, it shows how he performed over time, but by taking a 10-game average at each data point instead of just the actual game logs, you get a smoother, more comprehensible line on your graph. Using just the game logs would give you a lot of sharp peaks and valleys that drown out any possible meaning from the graph.

10:04

OK everyone, I think we're going to end here. Thanks for hanging out with me tonight, and on a flying solo night! Back at it next week. Might not be on Tuesday though, since next Tuesday is my birthday and all. Night!

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