JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 8/1/17

FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 8/1/17

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Anon

9:13

Does the trade deadline change any of your personal post-season predictions?

Paul Swydan

9:14

Yes, I think the Yankees will win the AL East now. When the Red Sox are equal with teams talent-wise, they're really behind, because John Farrell is like a lead weight pulling them down.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:14

No, I think players coming back from or going on the DL with have a much larger impact.

Paul Swydan

9:15

Case in point! Blaine Boyer comes in, loads the bases without recording an out, and is STILL in the game.

Why is he in the game?

That's a fantastic question.

HappyFunBall

9:15

Other = Baltimore. Didn't sell anything. Didn't add enough to make a real WC run. Locked in for 75 wins next year already

Paul Swydan

9:16

For losing? Yeah, I guess I dropped the ball on that one. My fault.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:16

Yea ....

Tom

9:16

August trade: Kemp and Markakis for Ellsbury, Miguel Andujar, Jake Cave and $5 million for Ellsbury's buyout.

Ellsbury is owed $63.429 over the next 3 years.
Kemp and Markakis are owed $54.5 million total over next 2 years.

Why the Braves do it.
1) Ellsbury is a better bet to stay healthy in the OF than Kemp (not saying much...but it's true).
2) Andujar could potentially be the Braves 3B next year. Has hit .318/.352/.516/.868 between AA and AAA this year.
3) Cave could be a solid 4th OF next year, can play all 3 spots. Has hit .323/.373/.606/.979 between AA and AAA this year.

4) Clears both Kemp and Markakis off the roster

Why the Yankees do it.
1) Kemp is a better offensive player than Ellsbury, they can use him as a DH, where he needs to be.
2) Cave needs to be on the 40 man roster for the Yankees at the end of the year or he is subject to Rule 5 draft.
3) They are locked in with Headley through 2018 at 3B and will go after Donaldson or Machado after.

Paul Swydan

9:17

OK, so this was so intricate that I had to post it. One problem -- the Yankees already have a right-handed hitting outfielder who can't really play the field anymore in Matt Holliday.

So, I don't see it, but I love the enthusiasm.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:17

Wow, I'm still reading it

Paul Swydan

9:17

And of course, Boyer gets a pop-up and then a double play. Of course.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:17

Like Paul, I don't get the Yankees side

Baseball is Weird

9:17

When do we get the first "What's wrong with Judge?" article?

Paul Swydan

9:18

Probably going to give it awhile. He was never going to be that good all year.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:18

I think this is the Judge I expected to start the season. I'm not surprised at all.

Carter

9:18

respond- good chance to win one game and get swept. I get that the Dodgers are playing like one of the greatest teams ever. But that is a bit of an exaggeration. Playoffs are a complete crapshoot.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:19

Then why do teams buy at the deadline if it is a crapshoot?

Paul Swydan

9:20

They are a complete crapshoot. But say Jon Gray starts the Wild Card game and can't pitch until Game 3 of the LDS. You like Marquez v. Kershaw? Freeland v. Darvish? Gray v. Wood/Hill, maybe, but still advantage Dodgers. And then Chatwood/Hoffman v. Wood/Hill. Rockies would be underdogs in all 4 matchups.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:20

And Judge still has a .391 BABIP. I expect even more regression going forward.

Paul Swydan

9:20

And historically, Dodger Stadium has been a House of Horrors for the Rockies.

Matt

9:20

Jeff, how does "player coming back from DL" have a different effect from newly acquired player. Aren't they essentially the same thing?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:22

I think quality and quantity could be huge either way. What if the Nats lost Mad Max tonight? Bigger impact than anything that went down on the trade deadline.

Paul Swydan

9:22

Rockies worst winning % vs. an NL team is vs. the Dodgers - https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/head2head.cgi?teams=COL&...

Yeah that sucked.

Will

9:22

How many top-50 prospects would the Angels get for Trout?

Paul Swydan

9:23

Probably not as many as they should. Because, teams rarely have more than 3-4, and the Angels would need 6-7 to make it worthwhile for them. Can't ever see it balancing out.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:23

I think it starts beyond that with a controllable All-Star like Bryant or Correa. Angels need to get back a cornerstone.

Matt

9:24

I just noticed that the Tigers have Hicks, Machado, McCann, Romine, and Sanchez. Did they buy all the off-brands?

Paul Swydan

9:24

That's hilarious.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:24

Truth

Will

9:24

Yankee fan watching the game right now. It's just kinda surreal to see all these Tigers relievers come in with ERAs all above like 6. What is wrong with the Tigers? How can a bullpen have so many relievers this bad?

Paul Swydan

9:25

That's even more hilarious. Sorry, Tigers fans.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:25

It's like the Mets and pitcher injuries. Went from funny to sad at some point.

Johnny Rockport

9:26

Who wins AL MVP?

Paul Swydan

9:26

Still looking like Aaron Judge or Jose Altuve are the front runners.

and

Jeff Zimmerman

9:27

I think it is one of those two right now. I'm fine with either one.

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