JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 9/19/17

FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 9/19/17

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Paul Swydan

9:18

What is tonight's best matchup?

MIN (Berrios) vs. NYY (Sabathia) (54.9% | 56 votes)

CHC (Montgomery) vs. TB (Archer) (24.5% | 25 votes)

CLE (Clevinger) vs. LAA (Skaggs) (14.7% | 15 votes)

TEX (Perez) vs. SEA (Leake) (1% | 1 vote)

Other (4.9% | 5 votes)

Total Votes: 102

9:20

Which Wild Card contender do you think has the best chance of winning the LDS should they make it there?

Arizona (41.1% | 46 votes)

Colorado (2.7% | 3 votes)

LA Angels (0% | 0 votes)

Milwaukee (3.6% | 4 votes)

Minnesota (1.8% | 2 votes)

New York (50% | 56 votes)

Other (0.9% | 1 vote)

Total Votes: 112

9:23

Do you think there is a clear choice for either MVP Award this season?

Definitely! (2.8% | 3 votes)

I think so. (25.5% | 27 votes)

Meh (14.2% | 15 votes)

I doubt it. (17% | 18 votes)

Definitely not. (23.6% | 25 votes)

Haven't thought about it too much. (17% | 18 votes)

Total Votes: 106

9:26

How many games do you think the Brewers will win in their series with the Cubs this week?

All 4, sweep, baby! (15.4% | 16 votes)

3 of 4, enough to stay in the division race (10.6% | 11 votes)

2 of 4, enough to stay in the wild card race (51.9% | 54 votes)

1 of 4, which won't be good enough (20.2% | 21 votes)

0 of 4, broomed out of playoff contention (1.9% | 2 votes)

Total Votes: 104

9:00

Hi everybody!

99

9:00

Will Kershaw pitch 30 games next year?

Paul Swydan

9:01

I'll say yes, though it is a fair point. This will make 3 of the past 4 years that he didn't do it.

9:02

And I don't think it's just the Dodgers being cute. Each of the past two years, he's had real, DL-able injuries. Maybe the Dodgers extended his stay on the DL to keep his workload down, but they weren't phantom stints.

joe

9:02

Can EL Gary hit 40 homers next season?

Paul Swydan

9:02

Well, I think he has 40-homer power. But I'd always bet against a catcher actually getting to 40 homers, because they don't play every day.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:03

Hi, sorry for being late

Paul Swydan

9:03

For reference, only 6 catchers have ever hit 40 homers in a single season - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&ty...

Hi Jeff!

Jeff Zimmerman

9:04

And no on Sanchez hitting 40 bombs

Paul Swydan

9:04

Certainly Gary Sanchez could join that group. And it's actually really just 4 catchers - Piazza and Bench did it twice. But I'll bet against him getting enough PT to actually pull it off.

Jackson

9:04

Does BaseRuns/Pythag record have a tendency to favor offensively-minded teams? Good hitting can run up the score, good pitching can't run it down any lower than zero. Plus, good hitters will knock starters out and get to weaker relievers, while pitchers can't actively make their opposing lineup weaker.

Paul Swydan

9:05

I'm going to lean on Jeff for this one - he knows better than I do.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:06

No, not really, the teams that beat it have unbalanced pitching, starters and relievers. Bigger differences in runs allowed per game. Pythag assume even distribution.

BTinVT

9:06

Do you think Stratton can be a front end starter? Thanks

Paul Swydan

9:07

I don't think so, no. Stranger things have happened, but he's in his first real major league action at age 26, and he's been league average thus far. Nothing wrong with league average of course, but I'd be surprised if there was more there unless he drastically cuts that walk rate.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:08

No, he's never had a K/9 over 9 (maybe once) and has walk issues in the majors. He has too far to go to be a front-end starter.

Gary

9:08

Am I the only one who feels that Yandy Diaz is severely underrated, even amongst people who kind of like him? He strikes me as current Joe Mauer who can play SS/2B and who presumably has power upside. What do you guys think? His Steamer projections are outrageous.

Paul Swydan

9:10

Not sure why you're presuming that he has power upside -- his career high ISO in the minors was .136.

I think he's rated just fine, sorry.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:10

There are some things to like with him but the playing time just isn't there right now. The Indians are getting to the point of the Dodgers and Cubs where they are stockpiling MLB talent.

Too much talent is fine for a playoff team

Michael B.

9:11

Is it time to start Carson Wentz over Aaron Rodgers?

Paul Swydan

9:11

Wrong chat my friend, but no. Stick with Rodgers.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:11

Wentz would have looked horrible if it was for that late TD. Rodgers

Murdoc

9:12

Is Devers current line of 289/347/478 about what you'd expect over the course of a full season?

Paul Swydan

9:12

Yeah, and I think in the aggregate, that's fine. It seems as though the league has figured out Devers a little bit, and he needs to re-adjust, but I'm sure he'll be fine.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:13

I think the AVG may be 15 points too high, but yes.

Cage

9:13

Is it about time that the Red Sox bullpen starts getting credit for being pretty elite? They've been great lately and the addition of Price is a game changer. Are they really that far off what the Yankees bring to the table at this point?

Paul Swydan

9:15

I'm skeptical of the addition of Price being a game changer. They're only going to let him start innings -- ie, they're not going to let him come in in the middle of an inning -- so his use is limited. But yes, the Red Sox bullpen has been great since Farrell stopped trusting Matt Barnes. It took him forever to clue in to the fact that Barnes just isn't that good.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:15

I still think the Yankees bullpen is better. It is actually underrated IMO. Teams with good bullpens make the playoffs. The teams usually have good starting pitching, fielding, and hitting also.

Paul Swydan

9:15

Adding Carson Smith back in is the real game changer. He pitched again tonight, which is his first back-to-back outings. If he can do that a few more times, he'll be ready.

Yeah, agreed that the Yankees 'pen is better, but the Sox 'pen is still good.

P

9:16

Would the Astros be well served to leave the left handed specialists off the post season roster (Liriano, Sipp...) and just got with the best bullpen pitchers? It seems forcing a bullpen lefty who hasn't been particularly reliable isn't necessarily the best use of roster space.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:17

Great .... teams are worried about their playoff LOOGY's. Enjoy the playoffs and winning and losing will come down to the studs performing. Not a LOOGY

Paul Swydan

9:18

It's not a bad thought. The Red Sox don't really have a lefty that you need to strategize around. Cleveland is a tougher call because a lot of their guys are switch hitters, and maybe you want them hitting from a certain side. But it's not the worst idea in the world.

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