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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/22/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:22
None of those would be reversible though, right? So even if Lucroy hasn't physically gotten that much worse, who cares, if his value is down? Fewer runs are fewer runs
Lee Smurf
9:22
Which NL starting position player do you think is the most obvious candidate to switch to DH, besides Schwarber?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
Kemp
Curtis
9:22
any 2B fliers you are digging? seems like a LEAN position...
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I don't know what this means but I like Enrique Hernandez
Bren
9:24
Is MLB still using the same ratings system for FA comp? It's not as big a deal as it was under the old system, but Ian Kennedy netting the highest pick is still a little ridiculous.
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
I believe those comp picks are allocated in reverse order of the previous season's record
so it's not so much about Kennedy as it is about the fact the Padres were terrible
cena
9:26
where do you think matt carpenter should hit in the StL lineup?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
First or second
Brian
9:27
Looks to me that the Nats are aiming to have a very crowded NL outfield. Assuming they aren't just trying to drive up the price for the Mets, doesn't it make more sense to move Werth rather than Taylor or Revere?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Werth is almost impossible to move. And the sense I get is this is more of an ownership thing than a front-office thing, so this is more like something that would happen to Rizzo than something that Rizzo especially wants
Brad_in_NYC
9:28
What are your thoughts on the new Yoenis Cespedes talks...news outlets here are reporting that the Mets are offering at least a 3 year deal (thinking about more) with an opt out after year 1...I'm torn on this...I think Lagares will work fine just based on his defense and his wRC+ from the second half, but love the thought of a motivated Cespedes for 1 year
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Yeah, there's not a whole lot of risk to Cespedes on a shorter-term deal.
9:29
This is why the Mets have stayed in contact. If they actually hold to this constraint, I still find it hard to believe Cespedes would turn down the Nats' longer offer, but I don't know the money involved.
The one-year opt-out is interesting as an idea, but consider the year Cespedes is coming off. He won't do that again in 2016, and the market is pretty clearly indicating it doesn't trust Cespedes to age very well.
NutButters
9:31
lol @ red sox being ahead of other contenders, the team and their fans will fade again this year by August. Not sure how they keep getting projection love, is this ESPN?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Well they did add David Price, Craig Kimbrel, and Carson Smith
cena
9:31
will we see mid-season opt-outs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
They already exist for minor-league free agents. So there's sort of a precedent, but this seems like a stretch. Maybe one day someone will have the balls to ask about it, but don't hold your breath
Ben
9:34
Cubs trade Soler for a Rays or Indians pitcher, and trade Contreras & McKinney for Inciarte. Offseason done, World Series here we come.
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Not sure that first part is likely to happen. Not straight up
birdie slanders
9:35
What's the A's next big move? Lucroy kinda makes sense, as it moves Vogt to DH/backup catcher and lets them dump Butler
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
I'm not convinced there is one. Lucroy could definitely appeal to them, but they might not have the prospect ammunition to keep up with the Rangers
LetsGoSuccos
9:36
Think the Pirates have any chance to compete in the NL Central again this year, or will this be a down year? I'd like to think we are okay, but we really could use one more competant SP imo.
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I like the Pirates. They're good at getting the most out of their roster on a yearly basis. I don't think they ultimately win the division, but they're right there in the wild-card hunt
Bob
9:37
What's up with Cliff Lee? He going to pitch this season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
In the end I don't think he does. Teams aren't sure about his arm and Lee has done well enough in his career he doesn't really want to have to work his way back up to anything
Walt
9:38
is there a time when overpaying is ok whether its FA or trade?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
There are times it's better than other times. If you, say, have a lot of young players around who won't be earning much for the next few years, then one of the benefits of that is you can afford to spend more on a high-level FA
the whole idea of efficiency is allowing yourself to splurge. otherwise you're the Rays forever
Q-Ball
9:39
NL DH....are you a proponent?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
It's inevitable, and because I've always been an AL fan I have my own bias. I don't think it'll be bad for the sport in any way that actually matters. But I am personally going to miss pitcher-hitting statistics, just for the science of it all
birdie slanders
9:41
What's your opinion on Mark Canha?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
He's fine. Flexibility makes him a little neat, but he's neither good enough nor bad enough for me to have an opinion that's in any way strong
_David_
9:43
Austin Jackson had 2.3 WAR last year...has basically been solid except for a half season in '14 sent by God to keep the Mariners out of the playoffs...And he's young...Are teams just really afraid of the overall trajectory of his hitting? Seems like he should get paid a lot as an average player at least.
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
The offense has eroded and teams don't buy him as a plus defensive outfielder. So he's a 4th OF who's still young enough to think he should be a starter, and that's a good recipe for a drawn-out FA process
Zonk
9:44
When we analyze opt outs, doesn't front-loading the contract in some ways reduce the risk for the club? After all, in a normal contract nearly all the risk is at the back-end anyway. By front-loading the contract, if there is no opt-out you at least have a declining player on a lower contract. If they play well, they are likely worth the up-front cost, and then leave. It more closely mirrors expected performance. What say you?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Here's the deal with all these things:
whoopsadoodle
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