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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/27/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:06
Longoria gets 10-5 rights next season. Does he get traded before then?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I don't know why he would. This being Tampa Bay, obviously there's always the chance, but Longoria feels like a forever Ray
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:08
What does Hensley Meulens need to do to get hired as a manager in one of the three current vacancies? I'd love him with the Nationals (though current front-runner Dave Martinez *feels* like a good fit as well).
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
This comment expresses a stronger feeling about a possible managerial candidate than I could personally ever imagine possessing
9:09
Feels like the Nationals in particular are going to try to find the perfect impossible blend of experienced, capable, and cheap
That doesn't exist
9:10
But if there's a trend these days, it's toward managers who are willing to be, for lack of better word, submissive. If you have a strong personality but you're willing to have your strings pulled, you could get a job
BJOGC
9:11
Carson hates baseball yet he works for a baseball website and even hosts a baseball related podcast. What would be your hellishly ironic job?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Kindergarten teacher
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:12
Dusty Baker has lost a job, but Alex Cora has seemingly gained one in Boston. Dave Roberts and Rick Renteria represent the only other minority MLB managers. Between the Yankees, Phillies, and Nationals vacancies, how much more diversity do you think we'll find in management roles in the dugout?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
It's basically Dave Martinez, right? He seems like by far the best hope
Jack
9:13
If you lived in one of the two-team cities (Chicago or New York — sorry, Angels, you’re not in LA), would you be a Cubs or a White Sox fan in Chicago, or if you lived in New York would you a Yankees or a Mets fan? For people who are raised in a two-team city, I assume which team you end up cheering for is mostly determined by who most of your family and friends cheer for, which stadium you live closer to, maybe what team was better while you were growing up, etc., but say you just moved to New York or Chicago yesterday and decided you were gonna pick one of their teams to be a fan of. You live roughly the same distance from each stadium, and you don’t have any friends in your new city yet that would influence your decision.
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I'm torn. In this hypothetical, there's the human pull toward the underdog, but then I think that has more to do with specific, individual games. Because there's also a strong and pervasive human pattern of frontrunning
9:15
I'd prefer to root for the team that isn't already good. But if this is also about me then in reality I wouldn't switch my own allegiances just because I moved to a new apartment
Bennybadatroto
9:15
hey Jeff, what's Tyler Mahle's realistic ceiling? Can he be a solid number two starter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Shout out to the unexpected Tyler Mahle question during the World Series
9:17
I think solid number two is aiming a little high, if we're thinking in terms of 50th percentiles
9:18
Didn't flash much of his changeup in the major leagues, and it remains an open question how he'll do against lefties. There's also the larger point that I just don't know if I trust the Reds right now to know how to develop a starter
Big part of me wonders how the Reds would look as a major-league roster right now if they had, say, the Cardinals' player development
Ryan B
9:19
Hey Jeff - thoughts on Mickey Callaway with the Mets? If you had to pick an arm that he might have the most influence on, who might that be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Obviously, Callaway would be a big reason why the Mets won't non-tender Matt Harvey, but I think it's going to be most interesting to watch if he can help mold Noah Syndergaard into someone who doesn't go 100% all of the time with every pitch
9:20
A version of Syndergaard who paces himself would be unbelievable
T
9:20
What are the characteristics of a pitcher that needs to lower their arm slot? Can you identify anyone that could use this to improve their slot in the rotation? Anyone else you see that could improve with this adjustment like Darvish and Morton?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
A lot of times, over-the-top arm slots look unnatural. Mostly because they are unnatural! Like, Clayton Kershaw doesn't pitch in the way that his body was designed to throw. But if a guy is over-the-top and successful, there's not much of a reason to change. So you'd be looking for an over-the-top delivery with inconsistent health or control
Like a younger James Paxton
9:22
The name that jumps out to me is Lucas Giolito. I don't really like his delivery. But I might just have Paxton bias. I think Giolito looks ridiculous but I'm just some guy with a small computer
9:23
If Giolito lowered to like three-quarters or something, I think he could look a lot smoother
Anthony
9:24
Hey Jeff, I think you've said in the past that at any one time, you think there are only a couple of noticeably good managers, a couple of noticeably bad managers, and a big group in the middle you can't distinguish between. Was Girardi one of your handful of noticeably good managers?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
For the most part I liked Joe Girardi, to whatever extent someone in my position can like a manager. I, of course, never had to deal with him. I just know how his teams did. I think he was pretty good, but I'm also not privy to whatever might've happened between him and Cashman. If their relationship soured, well, I don't know if it's worth trying to repair that
I don't think losing Girardi is going to serve the Yankees particularly well. But their talent level is so high they'll survive
Ross
9:25
Give me team and contract predictions for the following free agents:

Logan Morrison
Carlos Gonzalez
Alex Cobb
Wade Davis
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
I promise you -- I *promise* you -- any answer I'd give wouldn't mean anything
But I'd expect Wade Davis to sign for the most
It might be silly, but I think he really cemented his reputation with his long playoff saves
9:27
Gonzalez feels like the kind of guy who ends up with the Orioles for no reason
Dan
9:27
Are the Yankees making a mistake with Girardi?  Or was it time to move on?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
It's all about whatever happened to the relationship between Girardi and the front office. If the front office doesn't see eye-to-eye with the guy in the dugout, well, it's not the front office that's going to concede position
Mike
9:28
All of the discussion about Stanton's trade value has made me wonder - why is the $/WAR relationship for contract pricing linear? Isn't a 5 WAR player worth more than 5x a 1 WAR player because you have finite roster space?
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