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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/10/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:28
To his credit, he's still okay in the field, and he still makes an above-average amount of contact. Ichiro's skills haven't completely eroded. But he's never been the classic leader in the clubhouse. He's a role model, but in an atypical way
Gun to my head, I'd say Ichiro gets one more season. He's not going to make it to 50
Nelson
9:29
Every other sport has a flurry of FA activity in the first day the period opens. Why is baseball so different?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Off the top of my head, I don't actually know
I know the other major sports have shorter free-agency windows, but I don't know enough about how they operate to be able to tell you what makes baseball unique
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:29
Who is worse for his sport: Tony Clark, Roger Goodell?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
Seems like Goodell, but maybe because there's just more of a track record there
Mets defense
9:30
If Sandy signs Jarrod dyson to platoon with Lagares, signs ToddFather for third, shifts Asdrubel to second, plus a full season of Rosario at short, can I make a dramatic turnaround?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
Sure. The Mets just had arguably the worst team defense in baseball. Even getting to average next season would be a monumental improvement
divine chanteuse
9:31
1.)  How likely is Archer to be traded?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
60%?
Lunar verLander
9:32
Based on my understanding on wOBA, the linear weights change on a year-to-year basis. Would it be more accurate to calculate those weights on some sort of rolling 365-day basis, instead of just the data from the previous season? I imagine that it would be able to capture the effects of, say, hypothetical changes to the baseball quicker than just using the previous year's data, though I'm not sure how much of an effect it would have.
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
Very very very small effect
And it's not like we commonly *expect* a dramatic difference in the way the actual baseball plays
9:33
Here are the year-by-year linear weights http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn
Compared to 2014, the value of a home run in 2017 was down about 7%. Not super meaningful, and this would affect everyone's homers equally
Raindog
9:34
What kind of prospects would Machado bring back if dealt now?  What kind if dealt in July?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Figure Machado will get paid something like, I don't know, $20 million in this last year of team control
He's probably going to be worth something more like $50 million
9:35
I don't think you're looking at a package headlined by a clearly elite prospect. It would be headlined by a good pitching prospect or a fairly good position-player prospect, and then you'd get another couple interesting prospects to fill out the package
9:36
This is the trouble with trading guys in their contract seasons. Especially position players, who you can't leverage for a bigger price around the deadline
divine chanteuse
9:37
1.) How likely is Archer to be traded? 2.) Who are the contenders for him? 3.) Who is the most likely of the contenders to get him and 4.) What would a package from that team look like?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
You can't ask four questions in one question. That's cheating!
I'd surmise, for now, the leading contender would be the Cubs
They've been linked to Archer before, and it would allow them to skip the Darvish free-agent frenzy
9:38
The Braves, of course, have also been linked before several times, but I can't imagine they're looking at that kind of splash now, given their circumstances
Zonk
9:39
Rank these contracts by order of bad-ness:   Pujols, Cabrera, Chris Davis, Heyward, Cano.  Also, are these the 5 worst contracts in baseball, or am I missing someone?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
I think Heyward is the least bad. He's still just 28 years old where all the other guys are well into their 30s
9:41
The worst one comes down to Pujols vs. Cabrera. For now, I'd say it's clearly Pujols, but if Cabrera has another lousy year then he could step forward, since his commitment is two years longer (from now)
Vince Clortho
9:41
Because life is disappointing, it is unlikely I will get to watch all of Boston's young and good baseballing men grow old together. Do you think they are likely to move on from one of their young core in this offseason? Any obvious matchups in a trade?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Nothing original here but it seems like JBJ might be the most obvious player to move
I don't think this is the time to try to move on from Xander Bogaerts, and obviously Mookie Betts isn't going anywhere
Hae-Lo Dee
9:43
Lots of chatter that Seattle could be the most likely place to land Darvish. Does that make any sense to you?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Not so much sense that I think it's likely to happen
Brett W
9:44
Any thoughts on the Ryan Schultz situation?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I had to Google to find out what you're talking about
9:45
So I guess no
Q-Ball
9:45
Who will sign the most regrettable contract this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Shohei Ohtani from the player perspective, Jake Arrieta from the team perspective
Motor are Mindy
9:45
I am very impressed that you did manage to avoid writing an article on Jason Vargas all season long.  Just throwing that out there
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