JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/3/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/3/17

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Daniel

9:29

What now?

Jeff Sullivan

9:29

The other fun part

The playoffs are the fun part, but the regular season is also the fun part. But the transaction stuff is *also* the fun part

9:30

This is when you get to see organizational plans implemented and tweaked. You get to try to read into every single transaction to see what a team might be trying to do. The stakes are much lower than what they were this past month, but I love it for the puzzles

Chase Kimura

9:30

Who's your second baseman for the Halos? Cesar Hernandez would look pretty hitting in front of Trout and J-Up. They have money to spend on some pitching as well.

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

Hernandez would be a good fit for them, but they're probably still in a situation where they don't have what they'd need in order to trade for him

9:32

I wonder if they might swoop in to try to get Ian Kinsler

Probably too much of a longshot to expect the Angels to buy low on Jurickson Profar

ljc

9:33

The year after their World Series went just fine, but it did not go as well as the Cubs would've wanted. If a similar step back happened to the Astros (and Dodgers, though they obviously did not win), what would you guess the reasons were?

Jeff Sullivan

9:34

I'm a general believer in the hangover effect, whether because of reduced energy, or just because of having to play an extra month, meaning that's a month stolen from the offseason. The Astros just left everything on the field and they're going to have less time to rest

Throw in some kind of psychological component, where it might take them a while to generate that same drive, and you could see a slow start

Bortky

9:35

Any particular features you are looking forward to / want to promote this offseason? (More ball conspiracy, the effects of animals running out onto the playing field, etc?)

Jeff Sullivan

9:35

You might be under the impression that I go into every offseason with a plan

I do not do that

Every single day -- every single day -- I wake up and wing it

Jerkstore

9:36

Roberto Osuna for Ian Happ? if someone needs to add pieces, which team?

Jeff Sullivan

9:36

Don't think the Cubs want to give up that much control over a quality young position player

Craig

9:37

Which of the current tankers/rebuilders has the best chance of following in the Astros' footsteps?

Jeff Sullivan

9:38

Maybe the Phillies, depending on how strongly you believe in Hoskins

You can start to see the development of a core of position players, plus Aaron Nola

Q-Ball

9:38

Final prediction on Jake Arrieta's contract?

Jeff Sullivan

9:38

I have absolutely no idea

I think he's going to get more than he's worth, because it'll only take one owner

9:39

I guess I'll say 4/$90m, but I wouldn't want to be the team that does that

HappyFunBall

9:39

Now that we're officially in the off-season, let's make some guesses. What FA is going to receive an unconscionably large deal? Who's going to be the best bargain? What otherwise cromulent player is going to be inexplicably unsigned when Spring Training begins?

Jeff Sullivan

9:40

Arrieta is going to take forever to sign, and then he'll sign for too much

Morrow will sign a decent contract, but I bet he could end up worth a lot more than the guarantee

9:41

Chatwood has already been discussed as a clear upside guy

9:42

I don't see a Charlie Morton anywhere, but I guess you could always take a shot on Henderson Alvarez

jjkeller

9:42

Better for a team like the Mariners to go all in on a guy like Darvish and then cheaper on OF/1B, or try to spread the wealth between the three?

Jeff Sullivan

9:42

Spread the wealth. Mariners aren't in position to go all-in on anybody. Their big offseason hope is basically luck into Ohtani

Steve

9:43

The Astros' decision to not sign Brady Aiken got them Alex Bregman. Safe to say that worked out ok right?

Jeff Sullivan

9:43

I'm not sure there's anyone in the world possessing a higher degree of self-confidence than Alex Bregman

Bebop

9:44

If the Yanks had beaten Houston, can you think of a more impressive road to the WS (beating Cleveland & Houston) from years past? I'm sure there are some but none immediately spring to mind.

Jeff Sullivan

9:44

But it also didn't happen

Tea Leoni for Third

9:44

Why does Portland have light rail and a streetcar and why do they overlap so much?

Jeff Sullivan

9:44

I don't know, but there's still not enough of it

Zonk

9:44

Is it fair to say the Dodgers made all the right moves in putting their team together, it just didn't work out? Baseball, right?