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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/17/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:56
Now, I don't remember if I've ever seen an automatic ball called, but I'd guess it's like a balk, where it's called immediately. So the umpire would say something and make a signal as Capps is throwing, and the batter would probably respond by stepping out or taking the pitch or whatever
Furthermore, I'd guess the play is immediately dead upon the call being made. So nothing that happens after would count
A hypothetical home run would therefore be negated!
Anthony
10:58
I presume this has been asked before, but I've never seen an answer personally. How good must a hitter be for it to be worthwhile to intentionally walk him in every possible plate appearance?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
Quick approximate answer: if a batter walked in every single plate appearance, his wOBA would be .691
So you'd need a hitter whose true-talent wOBA is at least .692, roughly speaking
11:00
Barry Bonds topped out at .544
James
11:00
Higher WAR in 2017, Smyly or Felix?
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
Aw hell, I'll say it. Felix! I'm a partial believer
J
11:01
How do you feel about measuring a prospect's ceiling? Waste of time or useful to know but not necessarily accurate?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Waste of time. We never have any idea
Kelly
11:01
What do you think of the work Dipoto has done since he started? He came in without too much to work with and it's been refreshing to see strategies based on actual sound thought, at least (last year targeting buy-low guys, this year focusing on defense and swapping out volatile low minor league guys for ones with higher floors that will be able to debut quicker).
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Generally favorable. B or B+. Some stuff I've liked, some stuff I haven't, but I support the overall plan and approach, and I support the implementation
Of course, he's lucky that James Paxton basically fluked his way into being able to throw harder strikes
Miky
11:03
Hi Jeff, how do you feel about Michael Fulmer? 3 great pitches he can trust now, can he be an ace?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
Has to prove to me he can throw more strikes or miss more bats. Until then, I'll think of him as more of a No. 3
Positive in Pagosa Springs
11:04
So Tony Blengino gave Tyler Anderson a 71 "True ERA-", which would be 3rd in the NL. How good is he, really?
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
I think he's neat and super interesting, but if I recall, he also pitched against an overall weak slate of opponents. Right now, for me, mid-rotation
ALL_CAPS
11:06
Why isn't Matt Chapman getting as much attention as Aaron Judge?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
Chapman might actually have a worse strikeout problem
(Also, yes, the Yankees thing)
Mike
11:07
Why are you higher on Haniger than others? As a broader question, what do you value in prospects/forecasting more than other people (and conversely, what do others place a higher value on than you?)?
Jeff Sullivan
11:07
I'm a believer in Haniger's swing change, and so I'm a believer in his shorter-term results. I don't care that he wasn't a very good prospect before, because I think now he's fundamentally different as a hitter. Additionally, there are good reports about his CF defense, and that tends to go underrated by prospect people who mostly focus on the bat
11:08
Haniger is odd because his career path is somewhat non-traditional, but I've seen enough other players like this that I'm not deterred
11:09
With minor leaguers and the unproven types, I'm a believer in measurable performance. Many other people prefer to try to scout the skills, which is totally valid, but can easily mislead
Jeff
11:09
What are your top 3 spring training battles you are watching?
Jeff Sullivan
11:10
Profar vs. field, Sandoval vs. weight, US vs. US government
Yuk Yuk Puk
11:10
As a Rangers fan, if I had to pick an extension for one player between Darvish and Lucroy, I'm 100% picking Lucroy. Am I crazy? Am I crazy to think we could get both?
Jeff Sullivan
11:10
I'd take Lucroy, too. Darvish has the bigger question marks and he's likely to cost almost $200 million.
I doubt they can or will re-sign both
Fred
11:11
I've seen some research (https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/06/06/study-says-pitch-clocks-in-mlb-could-increase-risk-of-injury-to-pitchers.html) that suggests the implementation of a pitch clock could increase the likelihood of pitcher injuries bc pitchers will have less recovery time between pitches and thus be more fatigued and prone to injury when throwing a pitch. Prior to reading that, I thought pitch clocks made a ton of sense. Now I'm not so sure. Pedro Baez has only been on the DL once in his career (15-day DL for a strained pectoral). So, maybe he's on to something and not just trying to annoy the heck out of Joe Buck.
Jeff Sullivan
11:12
I think we all want to see pitchers work as quickly as Mark Buehrle. In reality, that's impossible. Pitching is *hard*, and it drains you. It's incredibly exhausting, especially as you clear 20 or 25 pitches in a frame. Pitchers need breaks. ...but they don't need limitless breaks. You can regulate this without being unfairly harsh
Mike
11:13
Does any site have individual pitcher unearned runs as a sortable stat?
Jeff Sullivan
11:13
I don't...think so...but it would be easy enough for you to do on your own with a quick export and Excel subtraction
Dave
11:14
Is Valencia as full time 1B the Mariners' only backup option if Vogelbach doesn't play well? If so, should it be?
Jeff Sullivan
11:14
In theory, DJ Peterson could do something in an emergency
Cody
11:14
What NL East team wins the most titles over the next 5 years?
Jeff Sullivan
11:14
Nationals
jon
11:14
Most starts for the Cubs in 2017:
1) Montgomery
2) Anderson
3) Butler + Mills
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