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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/19/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:26
My guess is Miller will have the better year, but the eye test will make people think Marte had the better year, if that makes sense
Ben
10:26
Everyone is down on a mediocre team paying for saves, but when I look at the Rockies I see a solid, aging, offence with the best rotation they have had in quite some time (and more young arms coming). They aren't going to win the world series, but that bullpen depth might just make them interesting in a division with only one real stand-out team?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Their problem is that the Dodgers are good, and the Giants are good, and the Diamondbacks are good, so it's not like there's an easy opening. But I do think a healthy version of the Rockies could surprise and hang around .500; I know they're excited about the pitching they've put together
Art Vandelay
10:27
Pelfrey's 5.09 K/9 Steamer projection even seems a little high, but Zimmermann's 6.66 seems a little low. Regardless, I have high hopes that the Twins can break this streak.
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
What I will say for Pelfrey is last year he got back to his 2012 velocity. It's surprising but he was throwing 93-94
10:28
But I agree with your general point. Maybe Zimmermann does better and maybe Verlander's second half was for real, but then maybe the Twins give more of a shot to Duffey, and maybe Berrios forces his way into the rotation real fast
Stay tuned! It's the hottest race of the season!
Zorak
10:29
Could Cespedes be a plus defensive Right Fielder? He has a great arm. Seems like the Mets are prepping Conforto to play RF against some lefties, with Yo in LF and Granderson on the bench.
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Cespedes is a plus defensive LF, so he should be a plus defensive RF
DodgersRDBest
10:29
Sir, what are the top 5 teams in MLB, in your opinion?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
My thoughts right now, in order from 1 to 5: Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros, Blue Jays
I'm most confident about the Cubs
j6takish
10:31
During his Wednesday chat, dave referred to Cistulli as one of fangraphs "full time writers". How cute
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
In fairness he also said that about Appelman. Appelman doesn't write anything!!
GSon
10:33
Would a Roberto Perez and Rob Kaminsky for Lewis Brinson and Mike Mantuella deal interest the Rangers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Strongly depends on their Perez evaluation. I have to admit he's better than I thought, and I know August is a big fan. The Rangers might be hesitant to give up on that upside, but if they think Perez is a real starter, then there's a long-term catcher. It would be a real interesting move
Sal
10:34
It seems like teams/GMs can be broadly categorized under different approach umbrellas: stockpile young arms, stockpile young bats, buy low, spend a crap ton of money in free agency and internationally. It also seems like the Dodgers do all of this stuff.
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
The Dodgers are unfair. Most people just don't realize it yet
Chad
10:35
Lots of talk about how the Mariners really aren't that improved this year. I understand where people are coming from, but still feel a lot better about this team and its future. Where do you stand on how Dipoto has done?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Pretty good offseason. The depth situation is almost night and day. The team itself isn't outstanding at the moment but it's so good for the mind to just have confidence in a front office, instead of being afraid every time you pull open Twitter
10:36
I don't think the Dipoto front office is top-5 or even top-10, but it's not bottom-5, which is most critical
Neil
10:36
Do you think Mike Moustakas will continue to hit for a much better average than earlier in his career?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I think he'll end up around .270
Jay
10:37
Will a Soler and/or Baez trade still happpen? What move makes the most sense? High-leverage reliever?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Running out of time. Now it seems more likely the Cubs go forward as is and think about trading one or both of those guys again in a year
Guest
10:38
Who would be worse at their job: Billy Butler as a full time Cfer in the NL, or Bartolo Colon as a full time DH in the AL?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Let's call Butler...40 runs below average in the field? Maybe 50? Let's say 50, just because.
10:40
Now let's say Colon projects for a .100 wOBA, with a league average of about .315
That's -103 runs of value over 600 plate appearances
10:41
Don't let Colon be a DH
Ross
10:42
Which of the Mariners starting position players is most likely to put up negative WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Maybe Lind? He's already done it before. Just needs a back injury to sap a little bit of his power and agility
jack
10:45
Do you think Inciarte would be worth Lewis Brinson in a trade? Rangers looking for outfield help
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
I do think that trade would be even -- Inciarte is good now and he's under control for five years, with arbitration likely to underpay him. So I wouldn't be against that move, but that doesn't mean the Rangers FO values Inciarte in the way that I do
Joel
10:46
Assuming he plays awesome defense again, what kind of offensive performance could you live with from Leonys Martin?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
80 - 85 wRC+
Sort of the Brendan Ryan line before he was bad
njs
10:47
why are you "more interested in arms than bats?" enquiring [sic] minds want to know....
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
I used to pitch, and I think pitchers are just easier to evaluate in depth. We get to break down so many things, whereas for hitters we still don't have a lot of objective information on swing metrics or whatever
10:48
And there's the whole thing about pitching being aggressive and hitting being reactive. Pitchers are most in control of what's taking place, which I like to focus on
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