JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/26/16

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/26/16

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Guest

9:41

What's your best guess on when Shohei Otani is in the majors?

Jeff Sullivan

9:42

I want to say it's going to be a long time. Otani is, what, six years from free agency? So he'd have to be posted, and the posting fee is capped at $20 million. Which doesn't seem like enough to sway his employer

9:43

What pulls me in the other direction is the general sense that the best talent has a way of getting to the majors. That's where all the money is, so that's where the talent wants to be. I'll compromise and go with an estimate of two years

Currywurst

9:43

Who's better, Bryce Harper or Erik Karlsson?

Jeff Sullivan

9:43

I don't know, so, Erik Karlsson

9:44

Erik Karlsson does what he does despite being the one player on that whole team another team has to worry about planning for

allen

9:44

from bleacher report, only the following 6 teams have not made the playoffs in the last 5 years: White Sox, Twins, Mariners, Rockies, Marlins, Padres. Which of those teams will be the first to make it back to the playoffs?

Jeff Sullivan

9:45

I'll go with the Mariners by a small amount over the White Sox. And then Marlins in third

Guest

9:46

Do you think that the average fangraphs reader would actually be a better GM than Dave Stewart? Or is the stuff that goes into the job (networking with other GMs, being able to talk to ownership, getting respect of the organization and players) a big enough part of the job to offset any gains in analytical knowledge or player valuation?

Jeff Sullivan

9:47

I have to believe acting as a GM is incredibly difficult. That being said, the average FanGraphs reader wouldn't have made the Shelby Miller trade, and that trade was an awfully big deal, so, you know what? I'm genuinely torn

9:48

I think the average reader would be a terrible leader. Also, a terrible communicator. But the average reader would also make fewer bad decisions. So I don't know where the balance is. Hopefully the average reader knows enough people to assemble a respectable surrounding staff

JDBlue

9:48

The White Sox usually have the fewest player-days on the DL, but have performed significantly worse than projected recently (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-royals-havent-been-the-projections-biggest-miss/). Do they actually have exceptional health/training staff, or do they just keep playing guys who should be on the DL?

Jeff Sullivan

9:49

It could be the White Sox are just selective in some way for players who are less likely to get hurt. There are a lot of moving parts. I do believe the White Sox have a good training staff but I doubt they're really extraordinary, relative to the rest of the landscape

MLB Duck

9:50

O's new outfield from Korea, Kim. which batting sopt will he play for O's? 1st or 2nd?? or bottom??

Jeff Sullivan

9:51

No one knows where he's going to bat yet, but he probably *should* bat second

He's one of only three players on the team likely to get on base a decent amount

Kenny

9:51

With Hamilton starting the year on the DL who do you see taking his roster spot out of Gallo, Mazara, and Brinson?

Jeff Sullivan

9:52

Gallo would be the most likely, but I think they bring in someone else cheap

Outta my way, Gyorkass!

9:53

So, why Jay Bruce, Blue Jays? Dingers? Dave seemed to think that Toronto has an organizational strength of turning one dimensional power hitters into valuable players - agree or disagree?

Jeff Sullivan

9:55

I think it's simpler than that. Bruce would be a 29-year-old buy-low option who was a really good hitter before hurting his leg. And his contract has a club option for 2017 that adds value to what remains

9:56

Through 2013, Bruce was a solidly above-average player. Reason to believe that player isn't dead

Guest

9:58

The Astros have 25 million in committed salaries in 2017, 7 million fewer than the 29th place Rays, with Keuchel, Correa, Altuve, McCullers, McHugh, Springer, and Giles all under contract. What is their plan going into the future? Are they really going to increase their payroll by 50-60 million next year just to maintain respectability?

Jeff Sullivan

9:59

They're going to spend as the success sustains. Last year's payroll was up $22 million, and the previous year's payroll was up $24 million. The young players are all going to become more expensive, and the Astros have been planning for that

Outta my way, Gyorkass!

9:59

So, how much has to go wrong for the 2016 Cubs to be the 2015 Nationals? What are the chances that the proverbial shit hits the fan so hard on the North Side that they Cubs miss the playoffs?

Jeff Sullivan

9:59

Let's see. Right now we have the Cubs projected to win 94 games. Last year the Nats were projected to win 95

10:00

The Nats actually won 83, though BaseRuns says they should've won 90

So, this seems easy enough: a few players either slightly under-perform or get hurt, and then the club just overall has generally lousy sequencing

10:01

Maybe Schwarber struggles. Maybe Russell struggles. Maybe Arrieta has to go on the DL. Fold in some struggles from the bullpen at the wrong time and you have a team fighting for its playoff life

greg

10:02

If you're the Reds, would you rather eat Jay Bruce's salary and try to find the best prospect return in a trade, or would you dump the salary and use the savings on international signings?

Jeff Sullivan

10:02

The first one

Oneear

10:02

Do you hate the D'backs as much as Dave?

Jeff Sullivan

10:03

I don't hate anybody. I think the Diamondbacks are both interesting and average. Easy to see them with 90 wins, easy to see them with 90 losses

I am aware of the fact it would look bad for us if the Diamondbacks were good now, after everything written about the Royals and the James Shields trade

But, you know, whatever. That's the fun of it

10:04

(I feel more strongly that the Miller trade was bad than I ever felt that the Shields trade was bad.)

(And I did feel that the Shields trade was bad.)

The Oriole Bird

10:04

I noticed that the Orioles' depth chart page on Fangraphs has Dylan Bundy 19 IP as starting pitcher and 25 IP as reliever. That is sensible, given the uncertainty surrounding how much and in what context he will pitch. Here's the weird thing: his pitching stats are projected to be the same regardless of starting or relieving. Is this due to some back-end limitation in Fangraphs' end? (Presumably he'd have better stats as a reliever!)

Jeff Sullivan

10:05

I think Steamer doesn't really know what to do with split starters/relievers. I should inquire again about this. Came up a year ago as well

Ringtone Composer

10:06

Who do you think will have a higher WAR in 2016: Yovani Gallardo or Ubaldo Jimenez?

Jeff Sullivan

10:06

Jimenez by a few tenths of a point

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