JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/3/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/3/17

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Jeff Sullivan

9:22

It's still very early in spring. Many pitchers are below their summer velocities. Arm strength, in general, isn't even fully built up by April or May. Be patient here

7777hk

9:23

How seriously does Loss of Price hurt sox?

Jeff Sullivan

9:24

If Price is actually lost for the season -- which is still not a certainty! -- it's a major, major blow. Probably drops the Red Sox close to Blue Jays level, meaning that becomes the first and most interesting division race in the league

Chone Figgins

9:24

Would the Mariners have ruined Mike Trout had they drafted and developed him?

Jeff Sullivan

9:24

If I ever die, and if there's a God, and if I ever meet God, this will be my...second question, probably

Hal

9:24

Why do people use "it's all downhill" in a negative way? Which way would you rather ride your bike?

Jeff Sullivan

9:24

In fairness, uphill is exhausting, but downhill is brutal on the knees. But there are other ways to go downhill too! Many of them thrilling

Andrew

9:25

Why is George Springer rated so much higher than Matt Kemp? Is it simply more runs scored?

Jeff Sullivan

9:25

Because he's a far superior all-around baseball player

j-dog

9:25

do you prefer Willson Contreras or Gary Sanchez?

Jeff Sullivan

9:25

Sanchez

Bill

9:25

A starting pitcher only has 2 pitches. How good would they have to be for the pitcher to be a good starter?

Jeff Sullivan

9:26

Chris Archer basically has two pitches and at times he's been a great starter. So, slightly worse than Chris Archer's pitches

CamdenWarehouse

9:26

I tend to think of "all downhill" with Calvin and Hobbs sledding at an uncontrollable speed before crashing.

Jeff Sullivan

9:26

Everyone should learn how to properly self-arrest

Rand

9:26

Eno loves Dylan Bundy for this year. Do you share his optimism?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

Depends. I don't think Bundy is on the verge of becoming an ace or anything, but I think he and Gausman are going to remain underrated because of the parks and opponents they have to deal with all the time

CamdenWarehouse

9:27

It's a six year old and a stuffed tiger

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

SELF-ARREST

Moonraker

9:28

The projection systems have Moncada striking out at a 28% clip this year, yet he struck out 31% of the time in AA last year. I know he's a top prospect, but don't you agree this is pretty curious?

Jeff Sullivan

9:28

Very young, and he's posted lower strikeout rates at his two other, lower-level regular stops. If projection systems didn't make any use of aging curves, they'd be worse

Hal

9:28

Hamels was really good with 90mph fastball/changeup for until he added a curve/cutter

Jeff Sullivan

9:28

And then, of course, we have Randy Johnson

Phantastic

9:29

Seems like pitchers experiment with new pitches a lot in ST and, even if they're successful, don't throw that pitch during the season very much. What 2 or 3 pitchers do you see actually taking a new pitch into the season this year

Jeff Sullivan

9:30

I'm going to take a quick look down Jason Collette's new pitch tracker http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2017-new-pitch-tracker/

9:31

I believe we'll see changes from, say, Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Blair, and Dylan Bundy. In Bundy's case, it would be restoring a previous pitch

Bruce Wayne

9:32

If Andrew Triggs makes 25 starts for the A's this season are you taking the over or under on his Steamer Projections? ERA 4.41 FIP 4.23 xFIP 4.39

Jeff Sullivan

9:32

Under, if under means better in this case. Triggs makes 25 starts only if he's pretty good. Which I think he can be!

Ronnie

9:32

Question about two pitch pitchers immediately brings to mind Ben Sheets & his criminally underknown 2004 season. 264 K/32 BB in 237 IP for an even 8 WAR.

Jeff Sullivan

9:33

No further comment

Raindog

9:33

I can't shake years worth of perception that Jose Ramirez was a quality-fielding no-hit middle infielder. Am I supposed to really believe he's a quality-hitting meh-fielding third baseman?

Jeff Sullivan

9:33

Have you come to terms with Justin Turner yet?

9:34

I'm not convinced Ramirez is actually that level of hitter, but this wouldn't be unprecedented. And he's not...built...like a Gold Glove candidate

Tim

9:34

Am I crazy for liking Spring Training better than regular season?

Jeff Sullivan

9:34

Almost certainly yes, but I should at least ask for an explanation. I, personally, am a huge fan of how pretty much every ST game is a matinee. But then, I'm someone for whom baseball is my job, not something I try to experience after my job

steve

9:35

would you (not dombrowski) trade benintendi straight up for Quintana?

Jeff Sullivan

9:35

That's simultaneous addition and subtraction. Doesn't move the needle enough

Hal

9:35

Which out of the Velasquez/Nola/Eickhoff trio are you most optimist about this year?

Jeff Sullivan

9:35

Nola. He's fantastic