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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/21/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:06
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friend
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
9:07
How do you envision Marte playing when he comes back?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I don't imagine much of anything is going to change
9:08
History suggests that when these players come back, they're more or less the same. You can interpret that in one of two ways. Either the PEDs didn't help performance much, or they just take a long time before the positive effects wear off
Ozzie Guillen
9:09
Your thoughts on Quintana? Walks are up, unlucky on HRs...any concerns?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
His stuff seems to be the same, he's throwing just as many pitches in the strike zone, and his contact rate hasn't meaningfully budged. Given those factors, and given his track record, I think this is a minor slump that some statistics are exaggerating. I'm not concerned about anything yet, and I'm sure he's somewhat preoccupied. I'll be more worried if his ERA is still way up in a month
9:11
Also willing to give him a little bit more time to get comfortable with Narvaez behind the plate
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:12
Tampa Bay is shifting something like 37% against RHH to a league average of 10%. Do they know something we don't?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Righties are pull hitters too
No reason not to shift, if you're predisposed to shift
Chaps
9:12
Since the Mariners and Brewers don't play each other this season, it seems like Keon Broxton won't have a chance to face off against James Paxton. Which do you think is most likely: 1) They face off in the all star game, 2) One of them gets traded, and they face off after that trade, or 3) They face off in the World Series?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
The most likely would be the first one, but that damned Broxton is making me look like a fool
He's just all kinds of messed up :(
Andrew
9:14
Anything to take away from Nola's velocity last night? He was sitting around 89-90, instead of his previous starts at 93-94
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Although his velocity was technically down, it was right in line with where he was all of last season http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=605400&b_hand=-1&gFilt=r...SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=16&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/21/2017
9:16
He also still topped out at 93, so that's encouraging. Given the four walks and given last year's injury, I get the heightened concern, but maybe yesterday he simply didn't have it
Steven Souza Jr.
9:17
Not bad, huh? Sure, my BABIP might come down a bit, but is my start intriguing you at all now that I'm making a reasonable amount of contact?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Here's the weird thing about Souza: his strikeout rate is down like 10 percentage points, but his contact rate is up just two percentage points. It's right in line with his career mark. So I don't think there's been a forward leap
But Souza has been more selective, and he's hit more balls in the air. Given that Statcast has shown he's a pretty good defensive outfielder, any offensive progress would be big. We know he can hit the ball hard. A few years ago lots of baseball people suggested they'd take Souza over Wil Myers. There's a foundation to build on
Billy Boy
9:19
The Phillies have been 6-9 the past two seasons on 4/20. Just spreading the word.
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
That's not nice
That's bad
2-D
9:20
Is there a way to find out how many times an intentional walk to make the bases loaded backfires? It feels like the pitchers' walk rate goes up in these situations.
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
There is not, unfortunately, an easy way. But there is a way. It would probably require a lot of Play Indexing
Or, failing that, going nuts with Retrosheet queries
Frank
9:20
Do you see Dansby Swanson getting on track soon, or could he end up a failed top prospect similar to Gordan Beckham?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Let's calm down before we go too far with our Gordon Beckham comparisons
9:22
Swanson does not actually have that much professional experience. This slump isn't a *good* thing, but he has plenty of time. There was bound to be a dip after last summer's strong debut
lakes
9:22
You buying Addison Russell's changes? Looks to be swinging less at outside pitches, fewer strikeouts. Could be .260, 25 HR batter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
He changes all the time
So far none of the changes have actually unlocked him
9:24
The improved discipline so far has been greatly encouraging, and Russell remains potentially exciting, but I want to see him face more good pitchers
9:25
He's had these low O-Swing% spurts before, and I want to see him do this for at least another month
Josh R
9:26
An overlooked part of the Dodgers failure to hit lefty pitching is that their Righty bats can't get the job done. In 2016 .224/.313/.354 and so far even a little worse this year. .210/.309/.364. This doesn't even seem possible. Should they worry about it and what can they do ?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Forsythe will help. Gutierrez will help when he's able to play. Their lineup shouldn't struggle against lefties like this, and I don't think it's going to keep up
9:28
The team's wRC+ against lefties so far is nearly average. This is a narrative I have trouble buying into
Jack
9:29
If a foul pop-up is coming down right where the on-deck hitter is standing, does he have to get out of the fielder's way? I assume he's not allowed to go out of his way to interfere with the catch on a play near him, but in a situation where it's coming down right at him, is he allowed to continue to stand there and make things more difficult for the fielder? Could Aaron Judge just take the ball off the top of his helmet so Jose Ramirez wouldn't be able to reach over him to catch it?
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