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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/29/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:40
I'm currently in a phase where I like to see righties throwing lefties inside more often. Nola could stand to do that
Matt
9:42
Obgliatory question about how worried I should be about Wainright. (Not: it is not *how* worried, and not *if* I should be worried...)
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
He has yet to throw swing-and-miss stuff, which is odd, because his general stuff is intact. Pitches are drifting on him and he's having some trouble getting that familiar finish. I don't think he's hurt, so with this kind of stuff Wainwright earns the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't sit back and wait for him to be an ace again. I could see him working out kinks to pitch like a No. 2
Dan
9:45
Do you have any faith that Kazmir and the shark will turn it around this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Samardzija seems okay. Kazmir just had a good enough start against the Marlins
2-D
9:46
If the Rockies had a rotation of Kershaw/Arrieta/Price/Scherzer/Sale what kind of season would they have?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
A good one
philosofool
9:46
Proposed rule: if a pitcher makes two consecutive pick off moves and the runner safely returns to base standing on both of them, the runner advances a base. Does this rule make baseball more fun to watch?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
I think I like it!
9:47
I haven't thought it all the way through, but I think I like it
Derek
9:47
Jeff can you answer two questions for me? 1) I'm going to Asheville to Nashville on a road trip with a date, what's an ideal weekend camping site with hiking in the area? 2) Have you seen anyone change their game as much as Odubbel Hererra has in one off-season? Dude looks like a gamer.
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
I'm afraid I've never camped or backpacked back east, so I can't help you there. That's a ballsy date. As for Herrera, it's the strangest thing. Clearly, he's making a conscious effort. Clearly, his heart is in the right place, and he's made an improvement. But I don't know why pitchers aren't throwing him more strikes. He's getting first-pitch strikes literally less than half the time. Why? Why on earth? It doesn't make sense, but consider this the latest reminder that, on average, pitchers are surprisingly bad at control
Erik
9:50
The Phillies have elevated their playoff odds to 0.1%! Would you take the over or the under on that? And if they're 2 games over .500 at the All-Star Break, do they make any win-now moves, or stick to the slow, patient script?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
They're too smart to do anything short-sighted. No blockbusters. In theory I could see them add a mid-tier starter or a role player, but they know what they're building. I'd take the over on those odds, because of the pitching, but the Phillies also have a -19 run differential. The Twins are at -20
9:51
I love love love that the Phillies are 12-10, but they probably shouldn't have that record
Robert
9:52
% chance everyone in the AL West finishes 81-81
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Disappointingly low
mtsw
9:52
While the Dee Gordon thing sucks, I have to admit I'm pleasantly surprised how few of the hot takes blame the whole thing on Barry Bonds. What's the worst take on this you've seen so far?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
You can pretty much always identify what's going to be a bad take from the headline. Once you do that, why read the actual article?
I genuinely can't remember the last time I read a baseball article I'd say was bad or stupid. Nothing to gain from it
Kvn
9:54
Is it crazy to imagine Manny Machado leading the O's in HR's this season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
It's not too crazy. He just hit 35. A few years ago, Chris Davis hit 26. So you just need Machado staying on path, and you need Davis having another weird down year. Which would be...bad...for the Orioles, but, you asked!
Chuck
9:56
I realize it is basically impossible to know how for real Rich Hill is, but any thoughts on his Kershawesque stretch? August's post from earlier this week on his past 9 starts was pretty eye opening.
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
It's worth noting he's had two lousy or mediocre starts out of five, and in another he walked four batters. But something about him just makes hitters not want to swing. He seems like he's really uncomfortable to hit against, probably because there aren't many pitchers with his profile
10:01
He covers every part of the zone. He has a lot of movement on his fastball and curve. Maybe as a hitter you just have to guess. He definitely has better control than command, and when he loses it, he's almost unwatchably wild. But this story is an example of what makes baseball so fun
Joey
10:03
Do you think Colorado could push David Dahl to the Majors this year and what would his path be? Or is his timeline 2017?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Consider it 2017 or September of this year until further notice. Obviously there would be an opening if and when Carlos Gonzalez gets traded, and the Rockies clearly aren't opposed to getting a young guy up to the majors early. But for now Dahl is just experiencing his first success in Double-A
Tom
10:04
If you were building a staff for just this year, what five pitchers would you take?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Arrieta, Kershaw, Sale, Syndergaard...Scherzer, probably. But maybe Price
Alex
10:06
Has dominant starts in Gwinnett convinced you that Rio Ruiz and Lucas Sims could be top prospects?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Nope!
Ruiz has all of two home runs, and twice as many whiffs as walks
Sims, meanwhile, still isn't throwing enough strikes
I know the Braves need to look for what bright spots there are, but I gotta say, there aren't many bright spots
Gavin
10:08
Has any player ever actually unknowingly taken PEDs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
We pretty much never know the real truth of these things, but CJ Nitkowski at least laid out how it could happen http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/new-york-mets-jenrry-mejia-drug-suspension-dominican-republic-culture-stanozolol-041215
Jake
10:09
With Carrascos injury and the White Sox hot start, would they be your current favorite in the central or still Tribe/Royals/no fav?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I still take the Indians, but the White Sox have whittled the advantage down to almost nothing
So if you wanted to argue strongly in favor of the White Sox, I don't have much of an argument to convincingly disagree
Matt
10:10
ESPN switched Jose Reyes to SSPD in their system. Any word on how long? I can't find any news.
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