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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/29/16
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YA
11:03
is aledmys diaz for real?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
He is not fake
fangraphsemployee
11:05
rubby de la rosa in his last two starts has scrapped the changeup (a pitch that has consistently been clobbered) for more fastballs and more sliders. his slider is his clear number 1 pitch and was a top 10-15 slider in the majors last year. do you think rubby can go the archer route to success and sustain this with increased fastball and slider usage without a real third pitch?
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
He's still thrown changeups to lefties. He just hasn't faced very many lefties the last couple times out. I don't think he's scrapping the pitch
Jeff
11:05
If the MLBPA were serious about cutting down on the PED's in baseball, they need to start penalizing players checkbook rather than just suspending them. I think fining them, and cutting their future earning by a certain percentage(from time of suspension - duration of contract) would deter players from taking PED's.
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
This is going to be a big issue. Players want cheaters to be held more accountable, but it sets a really bad precedent for the union to, say, allow voided contracts. I don't know how they're going to negotiate through this. There clearly needs to be a reduced incentive but I don't know how you cleanly take money away without jeopardizing the union entire
mtsw
11:08
Have you looked at 538's new team results projection system yet? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/ The methodology seems really off-base but admittedly it produces very similar results to Fangraphs playoff odds (and SaberSim/FG single game projections).
Jeff Sullivan
11:10
First I've seen of it, but eyeballing things, they're basically getting future numbers based on historical numbers. Which is how projections work, only they're doing a little more on the team level instead of the individual level. (Although they fold in a pitcher adjustment.) I'm sure there are quirks here that would reveal themselves upon a closer read. And I prefer our own approach, but if their numbers prove to be similar, then there's not much to argue
Fellow American
11:11
Convince me Aledmys Diaz is NOT the third best SS bet moving forward (behind Seager and Correa)
Jeff Sullivan
11:11
Look at his whole performance record. I think he's fine, but my guess is he's just ambushing an unfamiliar league right now
Neal Huntington
11:12
Who is the most underrated player in the MLB?
Jeff Sullivan
11:12
Jose Quintana
Jake
11:12
Should the Sox look at Erik Johnson, Jacob Turner or some other FA pitcher or just close their eyes every Danks start and hope he doesn't implode cause those guys would be just as bad?
Jeff Sullivan
11:12
I like Johnson enough. I don't think it'll be long before he's in there on a more permanent basis
boo
11:13
best long term phillie - Nola, VV, Eickhoff
Jeff Sullivan
11:13
Nola is the safest. Velasquez is the most exciting
Pants
11:15
So... Tyler White... :( Droppable? Or do you think he'll make adjustments?
Jeff Sullivan
11:16
I don't think he'll adjust fast enough and successfully enough to hold off AJ Reed
I think White had the advantage of being powerful and unfamiliar. Seems like a good way to get quick production without a long-term strategy
All right, I need to get rolling now
11:17
So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I'm sorry for what I didn't or couldn't address. We'll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days
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