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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/27/16
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Gio
9:33
Hi Jeff! Is deGrom a buy-low opportunity or should we pass? And, any concern about Giolito? I know he's walking more people, striking out less, but word is Nats wanted him to change some mechanics, and now he should be back to his normal thing (his last start was pretty good). Still top of the rotation upside and callup later this year, or has something changed? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Is deGrom a fantasy question? Whatever. He's good. He's better than this. Use that for what you will
9:34
Giolito had a rough start to his season. Seemed to have a little bit of a mechanical breakdown, where he was having issues with his leg lift and his timing
9:36
He's working on that, and he's better than this, but he's still walking guys. He walked guys last year. He hasn't yet dominated in Double-A. He's made it hard to drive the ball but he's not all that polished
9:37
I like him as a prospect but there aren't yet enough strikes. Kind of like Glasnow. The potential is obvious but there are kinks to be smoothed
adam
9:37
it's friday, im at work, ENTERTAIN ME
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Work should be its own entertainment
lol I'm kidding, have some chips
Scott
9:38
What do you see the Jays targeting in these potential trades? Can you see them grabbing some productive bullpen arms?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
I keep thinking about Will Smith. Maybe they'll trade for a healthy Will Smith
9:39
Otherwise I don't know what you do outside of hoping established players bounce back closer to career norms
Houzer
9:41
Do you think the Padres would be open to a Shields for Anibal Sanchez+Steven Moya trade? Would let the Padres get out of their Shields deal without having to include cash, and give them a younger, albeit troubling SP, with some upside
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
After a couple glances I think you'd have the Padres' attention. Might not be enough to push them over the edge, but Sanchez has basically half the remaining commitment as Shields. Moya isn't a total nothing
9:44
The Padres might rather try to pay down Shields to get better youth in return. Sanchez would have almost no appeal to them. But it's a starting point
adam
9:45
is rendon back?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Seems that way! I don't think he's 2014-good, but I think he's very good
JKD
9:47
Max Scherzer is striking out more hitters than ever, walking them at a bit below career-average rates (though higher than last year's career-low), getting a career-high rate of soft contact and career-average rate of hard contact, inducing way more infield flies... and 1.9 HR/9, with a 20.6% HR/FB. SIERA thinks he's excellent (2.86), xFIP does too (3.07) - is this really just a pure-dumb-luck thing that'll regress away, or is there maybe something else going on?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
I don't think there's anything wrong with Scherzer. I mean, he's clearly aggressive in the zone, and in the upper half, so balls get hit in the air. That's been the case for a while.
9:49
But consider that game on May 6 in Chicago. Scherzer allowed four dingers in five innings! But the wind was blowing straight out to center field.
9:50
He's as hard to hit as ever. Out of the zone and inside of it. His stuff is the same. Scherzer is awesome
Q-Ball
9:50
How worried are you about Prince Fielder? Is this a slump, or is he Ryan Howard 2.0?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
I almost wrote about him for today and will probably write about him next week. He's in trouble.
9:51
He's not the worst player in baseball, I don't think, but he always had a pretty narrow offensive foundation. Weaken that just a bit and the whole structure collapses
Sean P
9:52
Based on whatever adjustments Fowler has made to turn him into the valuable defender he has been this year, at what level do you expect Fowler to regress defensively throughout the rest of the year? Or, can he maintain this level of defense over the rest of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
I could see him as a 0 to +5 center fielder
Jon
9:52
Should the Braves be looking to move Teheran now or should they risk it and wait until July for a potentially higher return? Could they get a Shelby Miller-like return?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
The problem, if it's a problem, is that there isn't a market yet. Teams aren't looking to make trades before the draft. You'll see things heat up toward the end of June but the Braves will need to hope Teheran keeps this going for now
9:55
The Jeff Samardzija trade was early, by deadline standards, and that happened on July 5. So that's something to keep in mind. There'll never be another Shelby Miller-like trade, but Teheran could fetch a shiny centerpiece
JD
9:57
Edwin Encarnacion's K and BB rates are off from the past couple years, but his batted ball rate and plate discipline don't look too different. Is it bad luck or is he just getting old?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Element of noise. Same sort of thing actually happened last year. Through this date, Encarnacion had a strikeout rate of 21%. The rest of the way, 13%.
I'd trust him. And he's mostly been productive for the month, so he's warming up, it would appear
greg
10:00
Do you think Zack Cozart could fetch the Reds a top-100 prospect?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
I do, although it's generally more difficult to move position players mid-season than pitchers.
10:01
It's not easy to find a buyer. Most decent or competitive teams already have shortstops
The White Sox could be interested but their farm system blows
Zonk
10:03
Is something wrong with Jason Heyward? Is there a mechanical or other reason he hasn't hit?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
He's always had complicated mechanics. He's been no stranger to on-the-fly adjustments. But he's been getting pounded by fastballs. More and more as the season has gone on. He hasn't hit them, so there's a perception out there that his swing is long and slow
10:05
Until Heyward does something to cover the inner edge, against velocity, he's going to have trouble
Houzer
10:06
Sigh .. Giles came in for save and gave up a run. Is he just not going to be the closer this year?
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