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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/2/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:07
Hello, friend! Apologies for my absence last week. Bork Jr can be very distracting.
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friend
You were dearly missed
greg
9:07
Will FG be doing a live chat for the draft?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Good question for Dave! Bad question for me. Assume that there will be draft coverage to your heart's content
and beyond
Q-Ball
9:08
What is wrong with Addison Russell?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
The same issues as ever -- he still doesn't have a very good blend of contact and power. He needs to either hit the ball more often, or hit the ball harder, and while I know that sounds really simplistic, it is where we are
9:09
One contributing problem is hype. Expectations got too high. And then, Russell even now is still just 23 years old. It's nice that he's kind of cut down on his pop-up problem. But this remains a defense-first shortstop
Theo
9:10
Good first date idea?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Walk in a park. Completely non-threatening, and even if it doesn't go very well, at least you went for a walk in a park
Ethan Hunt
9:10
Is HanRam done or do you think he can turn it around?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Hanley Ramirez has been an above-average hitter
As for playing the field, that's a different problem, but he's still boosting the lineup
JTT
9:12
So, Marwin gonzalez’ 1:3 HR/FB ratio isn’t sustainable but all his other peripherals look normal. Is Marwin Gonzalez good now? Also, how about Aaron hicks? Are the Twins the new Mariners, the team that ruins all of their prospects?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Wrote about Hicks some weeks ago -- he's completely zeroed in on which pitches he attacks, and although his current line is over his head, this does appear like a modest breakout
9:14
With Marwin Gonzalez, I see an improved left-handed swing, but I think he's more of an above-average hitter than a legitimately good hitter
I'll note that he has 10 home runs in Houston and two home runs elsewhere. He's hit an awful lot of just-barelys
Sean
9:15
Is Tyler Anderson poised for a breakout? The peripherals look absolutely fantastic. What's stopping those metrics from translating to performance?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
I don't think the peripherals look fantastic -- I think they look fine, or pretty good, but he's running an identical xFIP- to last season. Quality starter! Not an ace, but the Rockies don't need him to be one of those
Aron
9:17
If I saw this right, Dyson made three really difficult catches in one game a couple weeks ago - two 4-star catches and one 5-star. What's more valuable, those three catches or him catching none of them and hitting three singles? Three doubles? Is there a quantifiable ratio between defensive/offensive value like that?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Let's see. 4-star catches are made 26-50% of the time. 5-star catches are made 0-25% of the time. Let's split the middle and say 38% and 12.5%
9:20
Dyson's catches would've been worth 62% of a hit + 62% of a hit + 87.5% of a hit. That's 2.115 hits. To be conservative, let's say they're singles. That's the equivalent of just over two singles prevented
9:21
Had Dyson made none of the catches, that would've been .885 singles allowed, basically
9:22
So that's what you're trying to offset. If Dyson went 0-for-3, there are technically some missing singles. If Dyson went 3-for-3, that would give him more than two "extra" singles
9:23
There's comparable value between no hits and perfect defense, and perfect hits and no defense, in this instance
That took a while to get through
Douglas X.
9:24
What is going on with Odubel Herrera this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
He isn't good enough to swing this much. I imagine the pressure is beginning to snowball and his approach is deteriorating
Kevin
9:25
How concerned are you with Dansby Swanson? Is he gonna be a guy who might take a year or two to start hitting better? We hear Brandon Crawford as a comp quite often and he was horrible with the bat for a long time.
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Here's the only major difference between 2016 Swanson and 2017 Swanson: 153 points of BABIP. Everything else is basically the same. Now, that does or could reflect worse contact quality, but Swanson was already far better in May than he was in April. He's not a real good hitter. He should be an acceptable hitter. The hype got a little out of control because of how Swanson's career opened
T
9:28
Hi Jeff! What was the best part of the trip? And is any part of the Phillies' Knapp's above average hitting sustainable?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
The best part of any trip to the mountains is being high up on a mountain. And having the Mountain House chicken and dumplings bag meal. I believe in Knapp's bat a lot more than the current projections do. No bad signs to this point
Kelly
9:29
It doesn't seem that far-fetched to suggest that the Mariners losing what seems to be their entire roster to injuries will be a long-term blessing in disguise, right? They were a good-but-not-great team on paper with some significant impending roster issues (old!), so wouldn't it be good to actually commit to a rebuild instead of striving for a WC2 ceiling?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Two problems. One, on paper, they were more than good enough to contend for a playoff spot. That team needs to get to the playoffs sometime soon
9:30
Two, talk about a rebuild that would be challenging to pull off. You can't move the old money, and there's a lot of it in place. The Mariners are kind of similar to the Tigers in that sense. No way to shed Felix or Cano, for example
Ethan Hunt
9:30
So did Christian Yelich peak last season or is there hope for better things?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
He's fine and will be great
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