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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/1/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Hello friends
Let's Friday baseball chat
james
9:09
Jeff,
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Good start
Houzer
9:09
If the Tigers become sellers- do you think there is a match with the Mariners for VMArt?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I have difficulty accepting the premise. The Tigers are better than the Mariners are! And, of course, it's hard to picture the Tigers selling again.
So it's troubling for me to even try to entertain the hypothetical
Roman
9:11
What do you think Votto's slash line looks like come season's end?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Something like .265/.390/.475
Great in June, all right in May, awful in April. In April, he didn't have his swing going, but it's all better now
Houzer
9:12
Do you think Nola is just suffering from a small mechanical issue, rather than fatigue? And how many more innings do you think the Phillis let him throw? I’m assuming they’ll want to build him to 200 next year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Nola started 31 games a season ago. He's not far from being built up to the 200 level. I have to assume this is just a little rough patch, and nothing more sinister. Maybe a hint of fatigue but not of the season-threatening variety
9:15
It is worth noting that, through June 5, Nola had opponents swinging at 35% of balls out of the zone. Since June 11, that's dropped to 25%. The curve has been less effective, and then that exposes the fastball, which isn't great. There was always some concern over Nola's "true" level of deception
But he's a lot better than this. For me, today, he's a legitimate No. 2 starter
Dae-Ho Lee
9:15
Felix has started throwing on the side, and appears on his way back. What needs to happen with the King from here out to get him in Cooperstown? Would you bet on that happening?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Obviously, he's most of the way there, but he could use a graceful and gradual decline. Maybe a signature start in the playoffs or something, as well. He's 30 -- if he's around and functioning when he's 35, then by that point he'll probably have had a Hall-of-Fame career
j6takish
9:17
Jeff, I am on team “Make baseball fun again”. The giants won and he got a double so it matters less, but letting Madbum hit last night was pretty stupid. The giants best player is a catcher and NL teams don’t get many chances to rest guys without taking them out of the lineup and bochy punted the opportunity to get a guy with a 71 wRC+ into the game
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
The Giants' bench is pretty awful right now. And teams are generally reluctant to have both their available catchers in a game at once. While I figure there was probably a better hitter than Bumgarner available, the difference would've been very slight -- essentially negligible -- and this way they got to make a little noise
9:19
I don't think it was stupid. Maybe slightly suboptimal, but not enough to matter
JD
9:20
With the MArlins offense clicking, how do you see playing time working out upon the return of Dee Gordon?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Unfortunately for Dietrich, this is an unwinnable situation. Gordon will very obviously slide back in when he can. And then Dietrich will make spot starts, and pinch-hits, and he might take some games against righties from Prado
The Decadent Moose
9:21
We're about to start NHL free agency and the Red Sox got whacked for international signings. Is this the best morning ever?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
The best morning ever probably didn't begin with a cell-phone alarm going off
Dae-Ho Lee
9:22
Seattle Mariners run the table between now and the All-Star game, and the Rangers slip. What is the one move they make before the deadline to push all in?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
So to be clear, you have the Mariners winning their next 10 games in a row?
9:24
I don't know what the all-in move would be. They could use help in the bullpen and in left field. They don't have a lot to trade. The market is lousy.
9:25
I wonder if they have what it could take to talk to the Braves about Vizcaino and Inciarte
Erik
9:25
Isn't the Yankees being sellers talk all a bit overblown? They're only three out of the second wild card and have the budget to buy to make up the difference.
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Yes!
9:26
It's not usual to see the Yankees in this situation, and they clearly have the sorts of pieces they could move for a haul. But the Yankees don't shed. The bullpen is their strength. I figure they're going to ride it. Maybe even add to it
Dae-Ho Lee
9:28
Is there legitimate reason to believe Cal Ripken was as other-worldly on defense as his Fangraphs numbers show? His numbers are better than Omar Viquel's, and going off memory of watching them both that seems bonkers to me.
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
If you think defensive metrics are unreliable now, they're even less reliable before the UZR era. Then you get into the days of Total Zone, and according to Total Zone Ripken had more than a few years of being 15-20 runs better than the average shortstop
The same would be said of Ozzie Smith
9:30
I can't matter-of-factly declare that the numbers are wrong. Maybe the rest of us are wrong! And I bet Ripken, as a shortstop, was underrated. Kind of like Jhonny Peralta. But I believe we're seeing some inflation
Mike_C
9:31
Given how he started the year, the Braves front office has to be somewhat please for getting any kind of a return for Bud Norris, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
For sure. And I wonder if we should be giving credit to Roger McDowell. I don't know who taught Bud Norris that cutter, but it's made a meaningful difference for him
CJC
9:33
Any explanation for Peter Bourjos's recent hot streak. Does this give him any trade value?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Bourjos has a history of showing little flashes and he has had a couple years of being an average overall bat. The timing here is good -- the Phillies could try to sell him as an ideal fourth outfielder. When teams think of Bourjos, they still think of his incredible defense, even as he's gotten older
Nothing great coming back in return for this, but Bourjos is moveable
K-Man
9:36
Hey Jeff, what do you think about Max Kepler so far?
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