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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/19/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:38
He's going to be quite expensive next year for a closer, but he's better than, say, David Robertson
Dave
9:40
As a Tigers fan looking for some good news, Castellanos' results are starting to match his batted ball profile: over 1.000 OPS in June and July. His batted ball profile almost identically mirrors Corey Seager. Has Castellanos finally arrived?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
I don't think he's arrived as an MVP or anything, but this is a guy who has power and who almost never pops up. Seems to me to be a very good developing hitter
Charlie Morton
9:42
If a team replaced their weakest position player with a Mike Trout type talent how much would a team improve their WS odds?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Depends how good the team was already -- wouldn't do much of anything for, say, the White Sox. But if you have a team firmly in the race, then we're probably talking at least 10 percentage points
Mac
9:43
With Salazar supposed to make his return in the next few days, do you see the Indians waiting to see how that goes before they make any trades especially for a potential SP?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I can still see them sniffing around for SP improvements, but if Salazar looks good right away, that'll reduce the need, of course. You wonder where they stand on Bauer's awful results vs. his half-decent peripherals
I think the Indians probably feel less urgency than the standings would suggest
Ross
9:45
Playoff teams at the moment: Astros, Red Sox, Indians, Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies. Which of those teams will still be there at the end of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Only team I'd be comfortable swapping right now is the Brewers
9:46
I think the D-Backs and Rockies still have enough clearance, although I could see the Brewers knocking the Rockies out of a wild-card spot, I guess
they really need to get better starting pitching fast, however
seth
9:48
Is the only way the Reds find a taker for Cozart a significant injury to a contender SS? Chances guys like Schebler, Duvall, or Suarez are moved?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Obviously Cozart isn't an easy guy to move. It wouldn't be a total shock to me if the Rays jumped in and ditched Hechavarria. I also wonder if there might be a slight chance now the Astros jump, with the understanding that someone will have to move when Correa returns
I don't think it's all that likely, but you could, say, have Correa and Cozart playing SS/3B, with Bregman playing more in left field
9:50
Astros could operate with confidence that Cozart could keep hitting for power in their home ballpark
Just might not be worth it to them for a minor rental upgrade when the division is already locked in
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
9:51
Thanks Jeff, now I need to explain to my boss why my productivity dropped on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. And I don't have my usual weekend excuse.  Odds Dozier can repeat his insane second half from last year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
10%!
J
9:51
Great trades for the Yanks and Dbacks yesterday right?  Yanks pen is ridiculous again.
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Love the Yankees bullpen. Projects now as the best bullpen in baseball. Still kind of weird to see Chapman and Betances with performance declines
ThickTanPretzel
9:52
Let's say a pitcher and a hitter in the same division have already faced each other a dozen times in a season. In a vacuum, would you bet on the hitter or the pitcher having the advantage in the next at-bat? In other words, which side benefits more from familiarity with the opponent, in your opinion? Any research on this?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I mean, the pitcher would still have the statistical advantage, but I think the hitter has more to gain from familiarity. Pitchers can instantly know, from the numbers, where a hitter's weaknesses are. Hitters learn more about pitchers, and what they look like, as they face them
You can learn a hitter through his statistics. You can't learn what a pitch looks like in the same way
Tim
9:56
Lots of people are clamoring for the Blue Jays to be sellers, but their pending free agents -- Bautista, Estrada, Liriano, Smith, Howell, Montero -- all have little-to-no trade value. So unless they're going to trade the kind of guys whose losses will hurt their chances to win next year and potentially beyond that as well -- and I'm not sure they should already be giving up on next year -- there's really not much point in selling. They're also not in a position where they should be giving up any kind of decent prospects to acquire short-term help. What's the best course of action for them here? Is it to mostly stand still at the deadline and just hope they play better the rest of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I think it's going to be a pretty boring deadline, for the reasons you mention. Obvious to move Joe Smith, and his numbers are good. You can get something, there. But you don't want to give up on 2018. You can trade, say, Happ, because starters are always in demand, but JA Happ isn't fetching a blockbuster. I don't think we're on the verge of an organizational overhaul
Outside Animals
9:57
Is there a more impressive defensive inning for a player than Jean Segura's trifecta of game saving plays against the Astros?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
The second one was pretty ordinary, but, yeah, the first and third were spectacular. I wish we had better numbers for stuff like that
9:58
I like how people were giving credit to Yovani Gallardo for buckling down in the inning. He tried to blow it! A whole bunch of times! His shortstop wouldn't let him
Attila the Hunplugged
9:58
Any word of an innings cap for J Montgomery or Berrios?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Berrios threw about 170 innings in each of the last two seasons, so he should be in the clear
Montgomery last year got to 140, so expect to see him closely monitored in September
10:00
Doubt the Yankees are firmly set on some specific innings limit
Moltar
10:00
Seeing that a relatively smart team like the Red Sox are interested in Flores and TJ Rivera, am I wrong to be paranoid that the second they leave the Mets they'll go Turner/Murphy and become star-level hitters?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
I think it's more a statement about just how terrible the Red Sox have been at third base
Red Sox project for 0.0 3B WAR the rest of the way, dead last in baseball
10:02
Their .607 OPS from third base is second-last in baseball, one point ahead of the Giants
My name is Judge...
10:02
now that JD has moved what other OF will be on the move?  which contending teams need OF help?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Unless McCutchen goes somewhere, my sense is it's going to be all kinds of underwhelming
Anyone want Jay Bruce?
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